Jalen Hurts has targeted the intermediate middle of the field at one of the lowest rates of any quarterback in the league, and this has been consistent among multiple different play callers. Eagles offensive coordinator Sean Mannion might try to get him to throw it there more often on play-action concepts and move away from the iterations of the offense that Shane Steichen installed in 2021. What’s interesting is that this is the last season Hurts has guaranteed money left on his deal. As accomplished as he is, he has to prove he can grow as a passer and age gracefully as his athleticism declines. He’s won a lot of games and a Super Bowl, but that doesn’t mean the Eagles owe him a lucrative contract if they think his game could continue to decline.
While do not agree that Hurts' game declined last season, I do believe he chose to remove a significant strength of his game by curtailing his rushing tendencies. In an offense that was stagnant, at best, for long stretches throughout the season, his effectiveness as a running QB was a dynamic that was sorely missed. Without that threat, he became the product of the offensive system. That choice also showed up in his effectiveness to QB from the pocket as defenses no longer had to account for him scrambling and making out of structure plays.
Where this leads is a very interesting thought exercise surrounding QB1. All the narratives are already out there so no need to rehash them. Instead, what happens if we look at this scenario through the eyes of the GM.
If this offense looks similar to the offenses of the past years in regard to targets over the middle and intermediate routes, what does that say about Hurts? Does it imply he is not the right QB for the system Mannion installed? This is the conundrum we have no answer to at this time.
What does the conversation become if nothing changes? How many more OCs and positional coaches does the team cycle through? How much money is wasted on coaching contracts trying to build a system around a self-limiting QB?
On the contrary side, what does the conversation look like if Hurts executes the system at a high level of efficiency and the offensive metrics improve? What becomes of the perception of Hurts' declining skillset? With no guaranteed money on his contract at season end, what does the team do? How does his next contract look? How does that get structured to be both team friendly and put to rest the notion that Jalen is a limited QB?
It is such a strange dynamic with Hurts. His successes in the league cannot be dismissed. Yet, his play can elicit feelings of uncertainty in the ability to continually evolve and age into the position for a lengthy career.
What are your projections for his 2026 season? Where does he improve? Is it time to throw? Is it second and tertiary reads? Is it QBR? What has to happen to make the team consider moving on or extending at season's end?