How Aston Villa getting through to the Europa League final can potentially impact Everton's European qualification hopes
Everton's Jake O'Brien celebrates his goal against Manchester City with James Garner whose corner set him up while (inset) Aston Villa's players enjoy reaching the Europa League final after beating Nottingham Forest
Everton's Jake O'Brien celebrates his goal against Manchester City with James Garner whose corner set him up while (inset) Aston Villa's players enjoy reaching the Europa League final after beating Nottingham Forest
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Evertonians could be forgiven for cheering Aston Villa’s Europa League semi-final comeback success almost as heartily as Prince William. That's because the result could help boost the Blues’ own European hopes.
Trailing Midlands rivals Nottingham Forest 1-0 from the first leg at the City Ground, Unai Emery’s side romped to a 4-0 success at Villa Park to reach the final at Besiktas Stadium in Istanbul against German side Freiburg on May 20.
It’s a competition that Spanish boss Emery has previously won four times (three with Sevilla in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and one with Villarreal in 2021), but for Villa, they’ll be looking to end a 30-year silverware drought going back to win they last lifted the League Cup in 1996.
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Everton previously competed in Europe across four separate seasons first time around under David Moyes (Champions League qualifiers/UEFA Cup in 2005/06, UEFA Cup in 2007/08 and 2008/09, and Europa League in 2009/10), but have not qualified for continental competition since they went through two qualifying rounds to reach the Europa League group stages under Ronald Koeman in 2017/18.
So, just what are the scenarios for European qualification and how can they affect the Blues? First of all, to have any chance of getting in, Moyes’ men would have to finish at least eighth in the table and even then, it depends on what happens elsewhere.
Currently Everton sit 10th on 48 points - the same tally as west London pair, Chelsea in ninth and Fulham in 11th. Chelsea’s goal difference is plus six; Everton’s goal difference is level and Fulham’s is minus five.
However, with each team in the mix currently having three more Premier League fixtures to play, that trio are just two points behind Brighton & Hove Albion in eighth on 50 points. As things stand, Brentford are seventh on 51 points and Bournemouth sixth on 52 points – which could be relevant.
While Nottingham Forest reaching the final could have dashed Everton’s hopes, in reality it’s still going to need a big push from the Blues to potentially benefit from Aston Villa winning the Europa League.
If Emery’s side remain in fifth and lift the trophy then the Premier League’s European Performance Spot (EPS), an extra place in the Champions League given to the two leagues with the best overall record each season, drops down to the team that finishes sixth, ensuring that half a dozen English teams would be taking part in UEFA’s elite club competition next term.
There would also be six English teams qualifying for the Champions League if Villa were to lose all their remaining Premier League games and be overtaken for fifth place by one of the clubs below them but still win the Europa League.
However, if the West Midlands outfit were to overtake Liverpool and move up into fourth place (the two teams are currently level on 58 points with Liverpool’s goal difference plus 12 and Villa plus four), then even if they win the Europa League, there will still only be five Premier League clubs qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
The outcome of the FA Cup final also plays a significant factor. For the European places in the Premier League to drop down a place, then the FA Cup winners need to finish in the top seven.
Earlier this season, that would have looked like a shoo-in for both Manchester City and Chelsea. However, while that will definitely be the case if Pep Guardiola’s side lift the trophy, a plummet down the table for their opponents, who now have Callum McFarlane in charge on an interim basis after the exits of Enzo Maresca and Liam Rosenior, means they would need to climb back into the top seven for the Conference League place to transfer to eighth with them getting a Europa League spot for winning the FA Cup.
If Chelsea win the FA Cup and finish eighth or lower, then they would go into the Europa League, with the team finishing seventh retaining the Conference League qualification spot.
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