So remember all the conspiracy theories going back years that NFL referees have some kind of vendetta against the Chicago Bears? It always feels like they don’t make calls in their favor, and way too often, they make them against the Bears, especially in crucial moments. Naturally, most people rolled their eyes, thinking it was just fans being paranoid. There is no such thing as referee bias against specific teams. Yet as actual conspiracies have been proven true in recent years, it seems only fitting that one would be in the NFL.
In this case, it appears Bears fans were not crazy. Analytics expert Warren Sharp recently became aware of something called the “Bears Tax.” It was an ongoing theory that referees were unfairly slanting penalty calls in favor of Chicago’s opponents. Like any logic-driven person, Sharp decided to look into the numbers, expecting to disprove this theory. Instead, he ran into something staggering. Not only have the Bears been abnormally penalized, but this has been going on for a long time.
Over the past four years, Bears opponents have had the fewest penalty yards called against them in the NFL. On the flip side, no team has more net penalty yards against them since 2022, and it’s not even close. Sharp broke down the numbers.
I never knew about a "Bears Tax"
until yesterday
today, you'll learn about it too
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
so yesterday I shared that the Bears opponents had the fewest penalty yards called against them last year
678 penalty yards called on Bears opponents
the NFL average was 871
nearly 200 more
but apparently that's just the beginninghttps://t.co/lxaULl3FTx
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
over the last 4 years, apparently having very few penalties called on their opponents is standard for Chicago
Bears opponent's rank penalty yards:
2025: #1 fewest
2024: #7 fewest
2023: #1 fewest
2022: #1 fewest
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
and over the last 4 years combined:
Bears rank in penalty yards called against opponents
#1 fewest
Bears rank in penalties called against opponents
#1 fewest
but, there's also this:
first downs awarded TO THE BEARS via penalties called on opponents
#1 fewest
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
at the same time that the Bears opponents were the least penalized in the NFL…
…the Bears own offense was receiving very little help
Bears first downs via penalty on opponents since 2022:
#1 fewest in the NFL
just 1.3 per game
1.3!
but wait, it gets worse:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
net penalty yards since 2022:
-795 – Chicago Bears
<>
-584 – New York Jets
-507 – Tennessee Titans
-454 – New England Patriots
-416 – Baltimore Ravens
-356 – Denver Broncos
-307 – Kansas City Chiefs
-276 – Arizona Cardinals
-268 – Houston Texans
-234 – Philadelphia…
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
more Bears penalty nuggets since 2022:
opponent roughing the passer penalties on Bears QBs:
7 total
#32 most in NFL
Bears penalties on roughing the opponent's QB:
17 total
#2 most in NFL
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
total first downs awarded via penalty:
Bears offense?
#1 fewest first downs via penalty in NFL
opponent offenses when playing the Bears?
#4 most first downs via penalty in NFL
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
detail of opponent penalties when playing the Bears, since 2022:
opponent DPI penalties:
#1 fewest in NFL
opponent roughing the passer penalties:
#2 fewest in NFL
opponent unnecessary roughness penalties:
#3 fewest in NFL
opponent offensive holding penalties:
#4 fewest in…
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 8, 2026
The Chicago Bears finally have some validation.
Granted, penalties alone won’t explain why this team has been bad over the past few years. Still, it is hard enough to win in the NFL when calls are fair. Having the refs constantly make your life harder by tilting everything in favor of your opponents. The question is, why is it like this? The Bears don’t have a bad reputation. They’ve never had incidents with refs aside from the major controversy in Pittsburgh a few years ago. This feels like little more than a group of people having a subconscious need to make life harder for this team.
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For once, it didn’t work last year. Chicago overcame the penalty problems to win the division anyway, going 11-6 and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs. Considering how much of a ratings draw the Bears became, you’d have to think the NFL might start recognizing this team is good for business. Maybe they’ll push the refs to be a bit more lenient with the penalty calls. Too much to hope for? Probably. Barring that, the best thing to do is keep winning in spite of the bias. Make it part of your motivation.
Playing through the refs is nothing new.
Plenty of great teams overcame an obvious crusade from the zebras to still achieve their goals. The Baltimore Ravens (2000) and Seattle Seahawks (2013) both won the Super Bowl despite being the most penalized teams in the NFL in those respective seasons. The Kansas City Chiefs reached the AFC championship in 2018 while dealing with that same problem. It is all about having the mental discipline not to let setbacks distract you from the primary task: winning the football game.
We saw glimpses of that from the Chicago Bears last season. Their iconic victory against the Green Bay Packers in overtime last December happened despite 10 penalties. The same was true of their big revenge victory in Washington, where they had nine called against them. The Bears’ resilience was evident, particularly as the season progressed. They already had beef with the NFL over the compensatory pick issue this year. Knowing the refs are out to get them should only fan the flames.