Arsenal moved five points clear at the top of the Premier League title race after a 1-0 win over West Ham, and Opta has predicted how the Gunners and Man City will fare
Mikel Arteta
Mikel Arteta and Arsenal avoided a late scare against West Ham to go five points clear of Man City.(Image: 2026 Catherine Ivill - AMA)
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Arsenal have taken a big stride toward the Premier League title after a hard-fought 1-0 victory over West Ham United restored their five-point cushion at the summit following late VAR controversy.
The Hammers believed they had snatched a stoppage-time equaliser through Callum Wilson, only for Pablo to be adjudged to have fouled goalkeeper David Raya in the build-up, with the effort ruled out following a lengthy VAR review.
Escaping that late drama means Arsenal are now tantalisingly close to claiming their first Premier League crown since the iconic 2003/04 campaign.
Title rivals Manchester City's commanding 3-0 triumph over Brentford had allowed Pep Guardiola's side to claw back precious ground in the title race, but Leandro Trossard's winner against the Hammers re-established the Gunners' advantage.
City still possess a game in hand, but can only accumulate 83 points should they win all three of their remaining fixtures.
For Mikel Arteta's Arsenal, victory in their final two matches against already-relegated Burnley and Crystal Palace could see them finish on 85 points.
Following the win at the London Stadium, Opta predicts the Gunners will finish on 83 points, with City forecast to end the campaign on 80.
The statistical model gives Arsenal an 85 per cent chance of lifting the Premier League trophy, which would bring an end to their 22-year wait for top-flight glory.
Erling Haaland celebrates scoring his team's second goal with teammate Omar Marmoush during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Brentford at Etihad Stadium.
Man City are still in the title race(Image: Naomi Baker, Getty Images)
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City manager Guardiola confessed he was relishing the tense conclusion to the campaign and, following the victory over the Bees, said: "I love to be here again.
"We finish second again this season minimum so I love it. I didn't enjoy last season and that moment when we were fighting to qualify for the Champions League was so difficult.
"But the Carabao Cup is in our pocket and the FA Cup Final at Wembley is the most beautiful day of the season and I love it."
City must face Palace in midweek before an FA Cup final showdown against Chelsea next weekend, with further fixtures against Bournemouth next Tuesday and Aston Villa on the final day of the season still to come.