There are two ways to immediately judge an NFL draft class: gut instinct and mathematical analysis. NFL Network lead draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah attempted the latter by quantifying the value of each draft pick. If his study carries predictive power, the Pittsburgh Steelers won’t feel good about their draft years from now.
Using his Top 150 prospects and assigning point values and “expected” point values to each selection, the Steelers ranked below-average league-wide, landing at 20th. Per Jeremiah, Pittsburgh’s actual draft picks netted them 449 points. That was short of the “expected” point value of 460.
Which Teams Made Most of Their Picks?
– 150 points for player ranked 1st overall, 149 for player ranked 2nd …
– Players outside Top 150 = 0 points
– 150 expected points for 1st overall pick, 149 for 2nd overall pick …
– Picks outside Top 150 = 0 expected points pic.twitter.com/GD59Fn4S7l
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) May 8, 2026
Pittsburgh was far from the worst, but it was the highest-ranked team to finish under 100 percent of expected value.
Using Jeremiah’s math, drafting Max Iheanachor in the first round netted the Steelers 120 points. Germie Bernard gave the team 102, Drew Allar 57, Daylen Everette 82, and Gennings Dunker 88. None of the team’s Day Three picks ranked inside Jeremiah’s Top 150.
By that calculation, Everette and Dunker gave Pittsburgh the best value. Everette was Jeremiah’s 69th overall player taken at No. 85, while Dunker was 63rd, selected 96th. Iheanachor and Allar brought the worst value. Iheanachor ranked No. 31, taken ten spots higher, and Allar ranked No. 94 and selected at No. 76. Bernard was nearly dead-on, No. 49 and picked at No. 47. Pittsburgh traded up six spots to get him.
The Indianapolis Colts took the top spot with 174.2 percent above expected value, nearly 40 points higher than any other team. Despite the team being without a first-round selection, selecting Georgia ILB CJ Allen in Round Two and LSU S A.J. Haulcy in Round Three boosted their numbers, along with Day Three “steals” of Kentucky OG Jalen Farmer and Oregon LB Bryce Boettcher.
The Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders took the second and third spots. The Raiders were boosted by landing Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy at the top of the fourth round, Jeremiah’s No. 19 prospect, who fell due to serious concerns over his knee.
The San Francisco 49ers ranked last at just 50.6 percent expected value. Without a first-round pick, the 49ers traded up to draft Ole Miss WR De’Zhaun Stribling at No. 33. He was Jeremiah’s No. 62 overall player. Third round pick EDGE Romello Height went about 40 points above expectation, while fellow third rounder RB Kaelon Black didn’t even crack Jeremiah’s list.
Like any other post-draft analysis, it’s more offseason fodder than predictive power. Pittsburgh ranking 20th shouldn’t ring any alarm bells. Jeremiah is attempting to measure a draft class more objectively. Of course, his own Top 150 is subjective, and it seems faulty to judge an entire class based on a Big Board of just 150 prospects for a draft that selects nearly 100 more players in total. Basing it on a Top 300 makes more sense.
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