BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — SEC commissioner Greg Sankey acknowledged there is a "tipping point" where expansion of the College Football Playoff field begins to impact the importance of regular season games.
Does that happen with a proposed 16-team field? How about 24 teams, which is gaining support among coaches?
"That's the unknown," Sankey said. "I think that, if we're honest, that's an unknown. And we're trying to inform that with research."
Sankey, who spoke to reporters at the APSE's annual Southeast Region meeting on Monday at the Alabama Sports Hall of Fame, referred back to the expansion of the playoff field from the original four teams to 12 teams, and how part of the projection was "we would be bringing games in and not having games that didn't matter in November."
While Sankey couldn't recall a team ranked outside the top 10 in November that ended up making the field of four, going to 12, he said, "arguably brought two and a half to three times as many teams into the mix." He used Oklahoma and its run to the playoff last season as an example. The Sooners sustained a second loss to Ole Miss to end October that dropped the team to 18 in the AP and Coaches Polls. It then won four straight games to end the regular season and earned the No. 8 seed in the playoff — a first-round home game against Alabama.
"Played their way into the playoff because of the expanded playoff. I think that was good for college football," Sankey said. "To me, there is a tipping point in November where a game like I just described, that goes from, 'Hey, we're at 6-2 hanging on for dear life, we really don't have a chance at a four-team playoff but you've been brought into it in the 12 team playoff,' can go the other way, where a team two weeks out is in and feels good about hosting or not hosting depending on how large you go."
Sankey brought up the Buffalo Bills, whose quarterback, Josh Allen, had a streak of consecutive starts late last season. Rather than break the streak against the New York Jets in a regular-season finale with no postseason implications, he took one snap and didn't attempt a pass before handing the reins to his backup.
"That doesn't happen in college football," Sankey said. "We've had people injured, and people have said, 'Well, they're opting out of the bowl game.' But during regular season, the participation has largely remained intact. I think that has to be fully understood.
"Now, at any level of expansion, there will be games that didn't matter in a smaller number that now matter in a bigger number. But there's another side to that coin — a game the next to last weekend that right now is critically important. So think about Oklahoma's journey through November that all of a sudden might not matter in the same way, and that creates different competitive circumstances that have to be considered."
Sankey's focus, he said, remains on a potential 16-team playoff field, not 24.
"We're open to the conversation," he added, "but there are a lot of ideas out there that have to be supported with analysis and information, not speculation. And with something as important as a regular season in college football — hey, if you can build the regular season and build the postseason through expansion in a different way, awesome. Let's get to it. But let's understand that.
"Because if you look at, I don't know what research the NCAA did on [expanding the basketball tournament by 8 teams], you know, there's a time when 96 was on the table, and it's a small, incremental adjustment. That's the tradition and professional sports leagues growth, all of which are supported by information. We've got some time to develop it. I think you probably all heard there's a level of impatience with certain segments of our membership, but I think it's important that we support the regular season."
Sankey wondered about whether an expanded playoff builds interest of not. Of social media poling, he said, "You put that aside and think about what are the impacts when you have to figure out when to make the games fit."
That, the added, is "one of the complexities that's hidden."
"So we now have two executive orders about Army-Navy," he said. "And I think everyone wants to honor Army-Navy, but you do have limits. Conference championship games still exist, and there are contracts around those for the first week of December. So plenty of opinions about whether they continue or not. Then you're to Army-Navy week, then you're the NFL Saturdays, and we've already infringed upon that, and you can see the impact upon both sides ratings — the NFL and college football on that Saturday.
"So where do you fit all the games? I mean, the American Football Coaches Association without like picking up the phone and having a conversation with those of us in the decision-making roles issues a set of statements and says, 'We want to get the season done earlier.' There's a point at which, when you evaluate that press release, they have a number of mutually exclusive options that have to be considered.
"Oh, by the way, we just met with our football coaches … and said, If we're going to go to Week Zero, two open weeks is the priority, not an earlier rush into the postseason. Two open weeks for for injury purposes, for recovery purposes, for development purposes, is the priority. So there are a set of realities."