Chelsea’s best chance at qualifying for any form of European football next season could be by winning the FA Cup final on Saturday.
The Blues face Manchester City at Wembley on Saturday, with the latter’s place in the Champions League already confirmed.
Not having European nights at Stamford Bridge is a worrying prospect for Chelsea fans after their UEFA sanction at the start of this season.
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What followed was a set of terms the club had to stick with over the coming years, and the revenue from European football is too high to miss out on.
The Chelsea Chronicle spoke to Financial Expert Adam Williams, and he believes that even winning the FA Cup and qualifying for the Europa League will leave Chelsea a mountain to climb with their finances.
“In terms of where they are at with the UEFA settlement, Europa League revenue might help a little but Chelsea are going to have to make big player trading profits either way.
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“Chelsea admitted breaching UEFA’s Football Earnings and Squad Cost Ratio rules in 2024 and were fined nearly £27m last summer, but that agreement also included a settlement which stays with them for four years, up until the end of 2028-29.
“There are basically no loopholes in UEFA’s system, unlike the Premier League’s – selling assets to yourselves, profit-boosting ‘swap’ deals with friendly clubs and selling players to Strasbourg won’t help them artificially reduce costs or boost income.
“Not so long ago, the finance and law expert Stefan Borson suggested that Chelsea could accept a European ban next season if they were in the Europa League because that could wipe the slate clean ahead of a future season in the Champions League, which would obviously be a much bigger deal to be kicked out of for a season, both in terms of prestige and finances.
“Chelsea have briefed The Times that they wouldn’t consider that option, but I would take that with a wheelbarrow full of salt given what they have briefed other journalists in the past.
“Player trading profits, Club World Cup and Champions League income mean they probably won’t breach the Squad Cost Ratio rule in the 2025 calendar year, though that functions more like a luxury tax in Major League Baseball anyway. They could just accept a fine if they were in breach, as they did in 2024. However, the Football Earnings rule – which is assessed from season to season rather than on a calendar-year basis – is going to get much harder to comply with after this season.
“In 2025-26, Chelsea simply had to stay within the loss range that they have provided to UEFA as a condition of the settlement. We don’t know what that loss range is but unless their finance team have got something badly wrong, they won’t breach for this season. However, in 2026-27 they can only lose a maximum of €5m. That can be extended to €60m, but only if they make up that shortfall in subsequent seasons. For context, Chelsea lost £253m in 2024-25, so the gap that they have to make up is absolutely enormous.
“If they were to be in the Europa League next season, my back-of-an-envelope sums suggest they’d earn £37.5m. That could be slightly higher depending on the value of UEFA’s TV deals and central commercial income, but the margin for error is probably only £5m or so, which doesn’t move the needle significantly. On top of that, you’d have six extra matches on Thursday nights at Stamford Bridge.
“By my calculations, they earned an average of £2.8m per matchday in the last financial year, so that gets you close to £20m. So, for the sake of argument, let’s say the total revenue you attribute to the Europa League is £60m. And remember, this is in a best-case scenario when they win the competition.
“Not all of that £60m is profit, though. And it’s profit which is key under the UEFA settlement. You have to pay player performance bonuses and appearance fees. There’s also significant costs associated with hosting matches at the Bridge. It’s hard to quantify exactly how much those factors eat into the £60m of revenue, but let’s very charitably say their profits are £40m. Given that is best-case scenario, you start to see how being in the Europa League could be a hindrance rather than a help – in terms of the UEFA settlement, not the sporting side.”
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Williams went on to say that he would be surprised if some big names were not forced out of Chelsea due to their financial woes.
He said: “Without massive player trading profits, I personally don’t think the Europa League would be enough to get them within UEFA’s allowable loss limit. That would come with a €20m fine and a competition ban, which would apply in 2027-28 if they were in any of the UEFA competitions that season. If they weren’t, it would apply the next time they were there.
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“So, I think that, even if Chelsea do qualify for the Europa League through the FA Cup, we’re going to have to see very high player sales to get them anywhere near the UEFA target. Those sales won’t be limited to peripheral squad players either, because I don’t think they have the inventory to rely solely on that. I’d be surprised if some big players didn’t leave.
“Given where they are at financially, I think the smart thing to do would be to accept the ban next season, if indeed they win the FA Cup and get into Europe. That way, they could swerve a future Champions League ban, like Stefan Borson says. But that’s looking at it through a clinical lens; clearly that would be a disaster for Chelsea fans and a PR cataclysm for BlueCo.
“But if the club sticks to their word and doesn’t go down that route, they’re going to need big player trading profits – and that’s profits on those players’ amortised book values, not the fees they actually receive versus what they paid. If they sold Fernandez for £100m, for example, they’d probably only make £20m profit for UEFA FFP purposes.
“Remember, they have to get their losses of probably £200-300m down to €60m – about £52m – in order to comply with the UEFA settlement. Player sales, as far as I can see, are the only way to do that, unless there is a new loophole which UEFA haven’t thought of. It’s a very, very tall order and one which the FA Cup alone can’t deliver.”
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