Villa are one win away from the Champions League but their record against the Reds is underwhelming.
Unai Emery must end a decade of frustration against Liverpool if Villa are to secure Champions League qualification on Friday night.
Villa host the Reds with both teams seeking a victory which would guarantee a top-five Premier League finish and a place in next season’s premier European club competition with a match to spare.
For the home side, there would be the added bonus of easing just a little of the pressure heading into next Wednesday’s Europa League final against Freiburg.
Yet while the equation might be simple on paper, the task in practice will be anything but and while Emery is rightly considered Villa’s greatest asset, his record against Liverpool is not the type to inspire confidence.
Since beating the Reds on his first-ever meeting 10 years ago this month, a 3-1 win in the Europa League final with Sevilla, they have become the epitome of a bogey team for the Spaniard.
In 13 matches against them since with Arsenal, Villarreal and Villa he has experienced four draws, nine defeats and no victories.
A return of 0.50 points-per-game, meanwhile, ranks as the joint-worst record for Emery against any opponent he has faced alongside Barcelona (three wins in 30 meetings).
Liverpool are also the only current Premier League team he is yet to beat since taking charge of Villa in November, 2022.
Last November’s 2-0 defeat at Anfield was the only top flight match Villa failed to win in three months between late September and December, a run of 13 games. It was the only victory for the Reds in a run of seven matches, all of which otherwise ended in defeat.
In short, there is plenty to excite the pessimists, yet even among the largely ugly statistics can be found reasons for optimism too.
Friday’s match, intriguingly, will be the third time in four seasons the teams have met in the penultimate match of the Premier League season.
Both previous contests have finished in draws which ultimately helped Villa over the line in pursuit of European football, a 1-1 tie at Anfield three years ago putting Conference League qualification in their hands for the final day while a memorable, Jhon Duran-inspired 3-3 thriller put the pressure back on rivals Tottenham in the race for the Champions League 12 months later.
Many supporters have noticed the eerie similarity between then and now, with Villa heading into the final two matches with a four-point advantage over a Bournemouth side who, just like Spurs in 2024, host title-chasing Manchester City in their penultimate match.
Liverpool manager Arne Slot reacts on the touchlineplaceholder image
Liverpool manager Arne Slot reacts on the touchline | Local Library
The difference this time is Liverpool find themselves in precisely the same boat as Villa, level in the table on 59 points after taking just 44 from 31 matches since winning their first five matches of the season and prematurely being anointed back-to-back champions-elect by some pundits.
This is arguably the poorest and certainly the most out-of-sorts the Reds have been since Emery beat them with Sevilla 10 years ago. That year, the first with Jurgen Klopp at the helm, they finished eighth in the table with one more point than they have now.
Klopp’s successor, Arne Slot, is now under increasing pressure just 12 months on from winning the title in a dream first season at Anfield.
Villa, of course, have had a very different campaign, taking just one point from their first five matches before charging up the table and at one stage being part of the title race.
But with just one point from their last three games, they are in danger of finishing the season how they began it and that primary aim of a Champions League spot still needs to be claimed.
Emery is right to express pride in their achievements so far but Villa have been a permanent fixture in the top-five since November and falling out at the finish would be a blow - a colossal one should they also fail to win the Europa League.
To erase such fears at the earliest opportunity, he must end a 10-year hoodoo.
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