The only predictable aspect of an NFL season is unpredictability.
Turnover in the NFL is consistent, with parity among the league's chief selling points. In any given season, a bottom-five team can flip the script. At least one team has gone from worst to first in its division in 21 of the last 24 years -- the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears accomplished this feat last season.
The 2025 campaign saw seven new division winners from the prior campaign, with only the Eagles repeating -- a quirky circumstance given that the NFC East had been the most volatile division over the past two decades.
The 2026 season could offer the same sort of turnover. Frankly, it might be easier to argue why all eight of the division winners will fall from their peak than suggest continuity reigns. Each defender is vulnerable. Plenty of contenders have improved this offseason to make their case for swiping their division.
As we look at which division winners might be exposed, I'd like to be clear that this is not a prediction column. I'm not officially stating that the higher-ranked teams are destined to tumble. But this exercise is aimed at analyzing how terms might have changed in the offseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC North · 2025 record: 10-7
Pittsburgh eked out an AFC North title last season on a missed Ravens field goal as time expired in Week 18. The Steelers saw Mike Tomlin step down, replacing him with 62-year-old Mike McCarthy. Pittsburgh is once again in the middle of Aaron Rodgers" data-link="/players/aaron-rodgers/" data-slug="aaron-rodgers">Aaron Rodgers drama. Even if the future Hall of Famer plays, he’s still 42. Rodgers played well in spurts last year, but wasn’t a top-15 QB. The Steelers finally improved their weaponry with the additions of Michael Pittman" data-link="/players/michael-pittman-2/" data-slug="michael-pittman-2">Michael Pittman and second-round receiver Germie Bernard, but there remain significant questions about what the offense will look like with an aging QB. If Rodgers ultimately decides not to play, those issues are magnified. The Ravens and Bengals each improved this offseason. A new scheme in Baltimore should bring life to the team, particularly on defense. Cincinnati bolstered a moribund defense significantly. If Joe Burrow" data-link="/players/joe-burrow/" data-slug="joe-burrow">Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson" data-link="/players/lamar-jackson/" data-slug="lamar-jackson">Lamar Jackson stay healthy, 10 wins isn’t taking the division again.
Carolina Panthers
NFC South · 2025 record: 8-9
Anytime a sub-.500 club wins its division, it's ripe to get picked off. The Panthers have taken strides under Dave Canales, with Bryce Young" data-link="/players/bryce-young/" data-slug="bryce-young">Bryce Young’s development at the forefront. But the offense will still need to make another leap to hold on to the division. Even with the additions of Jaelan Phillips" data-link="/players/jaelan-phillips/" data-slug="jaelan-phillips">Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd" data-link="/players/devin-lloyd/" data-slug="devin-lloyd">Devin Lloyd and second-round DT Lee Hunter there are still holes, particularly with the depth of Ejiro Evero’s defense. Toss in a first-place schedule that gives Carolina a tougher route to repeating. Elsewhere in the NFC South, the Saints vastly improved their offense, with first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson, Travis Etienne" data-link="/players/travis-etienne/" data-slug="travis-etienne">Travis Etienne and OG David Edwards" data-link="/players/david-edwards-x1290/" data-slug="david-edwards-x1290">David Edwards , after showing promise down the stretch under Kellen Moore. The Bucs lost Mike Evans" data-link="/players/mike-evans/" data-slug="mike-evans">Mike Evans but enter healthier than a year ago. They also bolstered the defense, particularly with the addition of first-round pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. The Falcons usher in a new era under Kevin Stefanski, who has proven to help maximize talent. This is a much punchier division than the one that floundered in 2025.
Chicago Bears
NFC North · 2025 record: 11-6
Chicago used a host of comeback victories to flip from worst to first in the NFC North last season. Staying atop will prove a tougher challenge in a close-knit division. Caleb Williams" data-link="/players/caleb-williams/" data-slug="caleb-williams">Caleb Williams continues to ascend, and Ben Johnson’s offense figures to take another step forward with the development of Rome Odunze" data-link="/players/rome-odunze/" data-slug="rome-odunze">Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III" data-link="/players/luther-burden-iii/" data-slug="luther-burden-iii">Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland" data-link="/players/colston-loveland/" data-slug="colston-loveland">Colston Loveland. There is a question at left tackle, and Chicago has yet to fill the holes on the defensive line. The Bears toed the line last year, winning seven one-score games. With a more difficult route, a regression to the mean in those close tilts could cost them a chance to repeat. The Detroit Lions are improved on paper from a year ago after filling the holes on the offensive line, but they still have questions on defense. When Micah Parsons" data-link="/players/micah-parsons/" data-slug="micah-parsons">Micah Parsons returns from injury, the Packers will be a force to reckon with. And if the Vikings can figure out their QB room and get a Sam Darnold" data-link="/players/sam-darnold/" data-slug="sam-darnold">Sam Darnold-like boost from Kyler Murray" data-link="/players/kyler-murray/" data-slug="kyler-murray">Kyler Murray, they can’t be counted out. You could legitimately make an argument that any of the four teams could win the division without sounding completely nutty.
Denver Broncos
AFC West · 2025 record: 14-3
Denver filled its biggest hole with the trade for Jaylen Waddle" data-link="/players/jaylen-waddle/" data-slug="jaylen-waddle">Jaylen Waddle, giving Bo Nix" data-link="/players/bo-nix/" data-slug="bo-nix">Bo Nix a No. 1 target to pair with Courtland Sutton" data-link="/players/courtland-sutton/" data-slug="courtland-sutton">Courtland Sutton. The Broncos have one of the best starting 22 in the NFL if Nix stays healthy. The defense is menacing, as it can get after the quarterback, and the secondary is sticky. However, there are depth questions, and a few injuries to key players could create havoc. Squads led by defenses tend to regress to the mean year over year. Denver won a whopping 11 games by one score in 2025, including against several opponents it probably should have walloped. With a tougher schedule, it’ll be harder to replicate that success. Denver needs more consistency from the offense in 2026. How will handing over play-calling duties to Davis Webb work out? It could become a talking point if the offense gets off to a slow start. Once again, the AFC West looks like a gauntlet. The Chiefs have restocked this offseason, and assuming Patrick Mahomes" data-link="/players/patrick-mahomes/" data-slug="patrick-mahomes">Patrick Mahomes is 100 percent healthy at or near the start of the season, they could feast on an easier schedule. The Chargers appear poised to take a leap forward if their offensive line stays on the field. Mike McDaniel brings a sexier approach to Los Angeles' offense than his predecessor. And even if the Raiders are a long shot, the new coaching staff, boatload of free agents and a better quarterback situation -- whether it’s rookie Fernando Mendoza or veteran Kirk Cousins" data-link="/players/kirk-cousins/" data-slug="kirk-cousins">Kirk Cousins -- make them friskier.
Seattle Seahawks
NFC West · 2025 record: 14-3
Seattle is this high on the list simply because it resides in the NFC West. In any other division, the Super Bowl champion would likely be atop my list. The Rams and 49ers are both legit Super Bowl contenders. That alone will make it more difficult to repeat. Seattle still boasts a top-tier defense led by wizard Mike Macdonald. Even after losing some pieces, I don’t expect a big drop-off, though its depth could be tested if injuries strike. The addition of first-round pick Jadarian Price gives Seattle a stellar Kenneth Walker III" data-link="/players/kenneth-walker-iii/" data-slug="kenneth-walker-iii">Kenneth Walker III replacement until Zach Charbonnet" data-link="/players/zach-charbonnet/" data-slug="zach-charbonnet">Zach Charbonnet is ready to return. One looming question that won’t be answered until we start the season is how the offense looks under Brian Fleury, who has never called plays. Sam Darnold" data-link="/players/sam-darnold/" data-slug="sam-darnold">Sam Darnold is used to learning new schemes at this point, so the fall-off shouldn't be great, but the unknown can cast some doubt that they’ll be able to repeat last season’s efficiency even with a good offensive line and studly playmakers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba" data-link="/players/jaxon-smith-njigba/" data-slug="jaxon-smith-njigba">Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the way.
New England Patriots
AFC East · 2025 record: 14-3
The 2025 Patriots famously feasted on an easy last-place schedule to leap from the cellar to the penthouse in the AFC East. How will Mike Vrabel's crew do against a first-place schedule? New England plugged most of its holes around MVP candidate Drake Maye, adding Romeo Doubs at receiver, as well as Alijah Vera-Tucker and first-rounder Caleb Lomu on the O-line. I also like the addition of fullback Reggie Gilliam, an underrated player who can help open things up on the ground. If the Pats pull off a trade for A.J. Brown, which has been speculated for months, it'd be a massive boon to New England's offense. There are still some questions on defense, but New England boasts true difference-makers in CB Christian Gonzalez and DT Milton Williams to carry the crew. Ball-hawking safety Kevin Byard was also a sneaky-good addition to the lineup. With the Dolphins rebuilding and the Jets still retooling, the AFC East looks -- on paper, in May -- like a two-horse race. The task for the Patriots is to fend off the Bills’ attempt to retake the division after a coaching restructure around Josh Allen. Buffalo has proven it's in it for the long haul. We need to see that from New England before suggesting the franchise will return to dominating the division like in the days of Tom Brady.
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Philadelphia Eagles
NFC East · 2025 record: 11-6
Philadelphia just became the first back-to-back NFC East winner in 21 years, going back to when the franchise stacked four straight division titles from 2001 through ‘04. Perhaps no perennial contender is a bigger enigma than Nick Sirianni's Eagles. They look like world-beaters, then crumble. They get back up, dust themselves off, and then zoom to the mountain top. Then they faceplant again. The talent on the roster is undeniable. Philly boasts a stalwart defense -- still led by Vic Fangio -- that can smother opponents. The addition of Jonathan Greenard next to Jalen Carter was a stroke of genius, addressing the unit’s most glaring need with an accomplished edge rusher. The DB duo of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean is crème de la crème, with both having just earned first-team All-Pro honors in Year 2. The big question is what the offense will look like under Sean Mannion. The former NFL quarterback is the fifth Eagles OC in five years, taking the reins with zero previous play-calling experience. Will Mannion jibe with Jalen Hurts and bring the best out of the 27-year-old signal-caller, or will 2026 be another year of questioning for the former Super Bowl MVP? The rest of the NFC East has improved. The Commanders overhauled a tired defense. The Cowboys completely revamped their D and brought in former Eagles assistant Christian Parker to coordinate that side of the ball. And the Giants feel fresh to open the John Harbaugh era in the Big Apple. Even with the division clearly improving and A.J. Brown apparently on his way out of Philly, the Eagles still boast the talent level to keep them low on this list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC South · 2025 record: 13-4
I'll admit this is more of a vibes pick to close out the list than anything analytically based. In a year in which turnover seems inevitable, why not shoot a perceived deep three? I loved what Liam Coen brought to Duval in his first season. The offense finally found its footing down the stretch, as Trevor Lawrence spearheaded an eight-game winning streak to close the regular season. Even with questions in the backfield, I expect Coen's attack to take another step forward. If Brian Thomas Jr. shakes off his sophomore slump, Jakobi Meyers remains Steady Eddy, Parker Washington continues to develop as a slot weapon and Brenton Strange stays healthy, this is an offense that should gobble up yards. There are questions on defense, with Ventrell Miller replacing Pro Bowler Devin Lloyd in the middle. But retaining defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile was a coup for Coen. With another stellar season, the DC would become a hot head-coaching candidate in 2027. I believe in the coaching staff's ability to cover any roster holes. It's not as if the AFC South is loaded. The Colts have several big questions, most notably the health of QB Daniel Jones. The Titans have improved but remain a team in building mode. The consensus narrative might suggest the Texans should retake the division, but there are still concerns about the offense. Houston's O-line has improved on paper, but we've said that before -- and in the heat of reality, paper burns.