Level on 59 points, fourth and fifth in the table, and separated only by goal difference. When Liverpool and Aston Villa meet at Villa Park on Friday night, the winner all but books their Champions League place for next season. The loser sweats on results elsewhere. It is the kind of context that makes a late-May Premier League fixture feel like a European final, which for Villa is particularly apt given they play one of those five days later against Freiburg in Braga.
That Europa League final is the elephant in the room for Unai Emery. Villa have taken one point from their last three league games, a run that includes defeats to Fulham and Tottenham and a 2-2 draw at Burnley last weekend.
The workload of a European semi-final and the pressure of a top-five battle have caught up with them in the final weeks of the season. Their defensive record has unravelled badly too: they have kept their opponents below 1.5 expected goals only three times in their last nine Premier League games, and none of those three opponents finished in the top half.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are two games without a win after the 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford was followed by a flat 1-1 draw with Chelsea at Anfield, a game that drew boos from the home end at full-time. Arne Slot needs a response, and he needs it on the road, where the Reds have the ninth-worst away record in the division this season, losing eight of their 18 trips.
The head-to-head does heavily favour Liverpool. They are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Villa and won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Anfield in November.
Friday night could bring Mohamed Salah back into a Liverpool squad for the first time since he limped off against Crystal Palace on April 25 with a minor hamstring injury. Slot confirmed on May 8 that [Salah was “very, very, very close”](https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/liverpools-injury-list-suspensions-and-availability) to returning to training, while Alisson Becker, absent for nine games with a muscular problem, is in a similar position. The more pressing concern coming out of the Chelsea draw is Ibrahima Konate, who limped off in the second half. Slot said Konate reported cramp and was assessed during the week, and early indications are he should be available. Florian Wirtz, left out against Chelsea with a stomach infection, trained on Thursday and is expected to start. Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley, Wataru Endo, Giovanni Leoni, Stefan Bajcetic and Jayden Danns are all out.
Villa are without Boubacar Kamara, Alysson Edward and Amadou Onana, but Emiliano Buendia has scored in two of his last three appearances and is pushing to start, while Ollie Watkins has been directly involved in 12 goals in his last 13 games for the club.
**Aston Villa (4-3-3):** Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; Lindelof, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins
**Liverpool (4-2-3-1):** Mamardashvili; Jones, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Isak
Villa’s home form and their need to protect themselves ahead of Braga make this awkward for Liverpool. But the Reds have not lost to Villa in over three years, they arrive with a point to prove after back-to-back disappointing results, and Watkins against a makeshift Liverpool backline is the kind of match-up that could go either way. Champions League qualification on the line, both sides desperate, and a quality gap that is narrower than it has been all season.
**Prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Liverpool**