In the wake of the NFL Draft and free agency, this is peak optimism time for all football fans — looking at their team’s updated roster and seeing the best-case scenario for the new group. So when the NFL releases the full regular-season schedule, no team is projected to have a losing record, at least according to its followers.
There is (very recent) history to go off of when projecting the Kansas City Chiefs to return to the elite class of the AFC, given the franchise had won the conference three-consecutive seasons prior to 2025 with many of the same pieces that fueled that run.
Currently, the Chiefs are tied with the Chargers for the third-lowest odds (+1600) among AFC teams to win the Super Bowl this upcoming season, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
Now, there is only anticipation for what the bounceback opportunity looks like. So let’s fast forward to September and predict how each of the Chiefs’ 2026 games will go:
Week 1: vs. Denver Broncos
Monday, September 14, 7:15 p.m. ESPN/ABC
It would be sacrilegious of me not to believe in a fresh, hungry Arrowhead Stadium being an unbeatable X-factor in this setting, but I also strongly believe in Reid’s ability to reinvent himself.
That was clearly set in motion this offseason, and looking back at 2013, 2018, and even 2022 following the trade of All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill, the fresh take on his offense has seemingly always coincided with a hot start to the year, likely because it is less predictable.
Chiefs win (1-0)
Week 2: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 20, 7:20 p.m. NBC
Read the first line of the previous blurb.
Chiefs win (2-0)
Week 3: at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 27*, 12:00 p.m. CBS*
This is a good time to catch a team that truly flipped the organization on its head and shook out all its loose change this offseason. The Chiefs have no reason to lose this game.
Chiefs win (3-0)
Week 4: at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 4, 3:25 p.m. CBS
With a theme similar to the projected win in Miami, there could be bright spots for the Raiders this year, free from the dead-end era under head coach Pete Carroll — but this early in the season, Kansas City needs to flex the experienced, veteran muscles and start the season with a 2-0 record in the division.
Chiefs win (4-0)
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 18, 3:25 p.m. CBS
I doubt many of the veteran Chiefs players will be happy with the early rest, but still, it gives Kansas City soe sort of advantage in the first matchup with a possible contender for the division title.
That said, there’s always an October home loss that defies logic and produces some grey hairs, and this feels like the sweet spot for it.
Chiefs lose (4-1)
Week 7: at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 25, 7:20 p.m. NBC
The first of two West Coast road trips will be a fun matchup, and hopefully Chiefs’ running back Kenneth Walker is in midseason form for his revenge game. I believe Seattle could regress closer to the pack after winning the Super Bowl, and this game will be a point of proof.
Chiefs win (5-1)
Week 8: at Denver
Sunday, November 1, 3:25 p.m. CBS
Broncos’ head coach Sean Payton will be ready for the rematch, one that could define Denver’s season given the predicted 0-1 start and a tough lineup of early-season opponents. This makes two AFC West losses in three weeks, splitting the season series with Denver with 10 weeks still to play.
Chiefs lose (5-2)
Week 9: vs. New York Jets
Sunday, November 8, 12:00 p.m. CBS
There’s not much to fear about the Jets in their current state, mainly because the quarterback position is bleak. It’s a tough spot for them to match the energy of a contender coming off a division loss, so this is a simple bounceback opportunity to take advantage of.
Chiefs win (6-2)
Week 10: at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 15, 12:00 p.m. CBS
While I respect the Falcons’ hire of head coach Kevin Stefanski, I see the Chiefs staying focused through the trap opportunity and avoid a left-handed upset at the hands of Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix.
Chiefs win (7-2)
Week 11: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 22, 12:00 p.m. CBS
This is the real “trap game,” with a short week to prepare for Thanksgiving night following it, and I may have fallen for the trap if it was any other opponent.
Chiefs win (8-2)
Week 12: at Buffalo Bills
Thursday, November 26, 7:20 p.m. NBC
At this point in the season, it’s hard to imagine either team would be holding anything back with only so much time to make up for a loss in the standings. I don’t see this setting being one that inspires change from the usual routine in this AFC matchup.
Chiefs lose (8-3)
Week 13: at Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, December 3, 7:15 p.m. Amazon Prime
With just the standard seven days to rebound from Thanksgiving, I see the Chiefs doing just that in a matchup that feels more like a celebration of football’s offensive evolution than it does an intense battle. The scheme advantage may almost certainly be with the modern Rams offense, but it feels like the right time for quarterback Patrick Mahomes to prove that only matters so much.
Chiefs win (9-3)
Week 14: at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 13, 3:25 p.m. CBS
The Bengals would love to play spoiler to a the Chiefs’ hopes at homefield advantage, and certainly could be overtaking it for themselves in this situation. However, that’s quite a projection, considering this team hasn’t proven to be a contender in years. This will be a fierce matchup regardless, one that will prepare both for the playoffs and was definitely missed last season.
Chiefs win (10-3)
Week 15: vs. New England Patriots
Monday, December 21, 7:15 PM, ESPN/ABC
This “Monday Night Football” matchup in Arrowhead will always bring back memories of the 2014 beatdown of Tom Brady. A similar beatdown feels like a stretch to suggest, but there is reason to believe the Patriots will regress like many Super Bowl losers do the following year. I wouldn’t be surprised if New England was in a position to be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss here.
Chiefs win (11-3)
Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 27, 3:25 p.m. CBS
It’s easy to see how there could be much more bad blood on one side of this interconference contest than the other, the one who emerged victorious in both Super Bowl LIV and LVIII. Those wounds are still fresh, and could be an X-factor amid a playoff push I assume San Francisco will be making.
This could also be a look-ahead spot for the division-leading Chiefs to a game that could potentially decide the AFC West.
Chiefs lose (11-4)
Week 17: at Los Angeles
Date and Time TBD
I do see a path to the Chargers being a contender for the AFC West up until the very end, so in classic Chiefs fashion, Los Angeles’ hopes for such a dream will be dashed when Kansas City wins the late-season matchup that ultimately matters much more than the Week 6 edition.
Chiefs win (12-4)
Week 18: vs. Raiders
Date and Time TBD
With four losses, there is a strong possibility that the top seed in the AFC is still within reach for the Chiefs, and it will most likely take beating Las Vegas in the season finale at Arrowhead. This could be an awesome opportunity for rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza to begin his villain arc in the lore of this rivalry… but I see Kansas City saying “maybe next year” while keeping momentum ahead of a postseason run.
Chiefs win (13-4)
The Bottom Line
Final record: 13-4
There is little doubt in my head (or maybe it’s my heart) that the re-tooling done to the Chiefs’ roster, coaching staff and potentially scheme will set Kansas City up to start out strong, staying ahead of the curve by running the offense differently than before, and keeping a steady hand through the toughest parts of the schedule to once again hold one of the NFL’s best win-loss records.
The bye week actually feels a bit deflating, as do the two road games against re-building organizations leading into it. That’s where the lull comes from in the first loss of the season to Los Angeles, but the new energy and messaging from the coaching staff can absolutely make a difference in avoiding the snowball effect from it.
There were times over the last three seasons under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy that lulls turned into weeks-long stretches of ineffectiveness. If that continues to happen, then last season may not be an outlier, but there’s a reason Reid made the decision to bring back offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
While the “accountability” is fresh, it could very well be a reason Mahomes and the offense’s rhythm finds stronger consistency moving forward.