Opta’s supercomputer predicts Chelsea vs. Tottenham.
Opta’s supercomputer has handed Chelsea a 47.4 per cent chance of beating Tottenham at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday evening, with Spurs given a 28.5 per cent probability of securing what would be only their second Premier League era victory at the west London ground, and a draw assessed at 24.1 per cent.
The numbers make Chelsea favourites on paper, but the broader context surrounding this fixture gives Tottenham genuine and specific reasons to believe the data does not tell the complete story.
The most significant factor working in Spurs’ favour is scheduling. Chelsea face Manchester City in the FA Cup final just three days before Tuesday’s Premier League fixture, meaning Liam Rosenior’s side will arrive at this match carrying the physical and emotional load of a Wembley showpiece. Whether Chelsea win, lose or draw against City, the toll of a cup final appearance in the preceding 72 hours will inevitably affect their freshness and sharpness. Tottenham, by contrast, have had a full week to prepare specifically for this fixture under De Zerbi’s meticulous guidance.
Chelsea are going through a poor spell of form
Chelsea’s recent domestic form adds further encouragement. The Blues have not won a Premier League game since March 5, an extraordinary run of results for a club of their resources and ambition that suggests significant fragility regardless of the opposition they face. Tottenham will be under no illusions about the difficulty of Stamford Bridge as a venue, but a Chelsea side in that kind of form is considerably more vulnerable than their home advantage might suggest.
There is also the matter of atmosphere. Chelsea supporters have planned a protest against their owners on matchday, which could create an environment at Stamford Bridge that is anything but a cauldron of intimidating home support. A ground divided in its attention, or simply less ferociously behind their team than usual, represents a meaningful advantage for visiting sides.
The mathematical stakes could not be clearer. If West Ham beat Newcastle on Sunday, Tottenham would drop into the bottom three heading into the Chelsea fixture, making a draw or better at Stamford Bridge essential rather than merely desirable. If West Ham lose, a Tottenham win would move them five points clear with one game remaining and end the survival battle before the final day.
The supercomputer gives a 52.6 per cent combined probability of either a draw or a Spurs win. On current form, with the scheduling advantage, Chelsea’s poor run and the protest adding uncertainty to the home environment, Tottenham’s chances are arguably better than those numbers suggest.