If you follow the money, it says something quite different about the coming Bears season than what many of the national forecasts say.
In fact, it almost contradicts what those who make or lose money think about this year for Chicago, as well. There is far more belief Caleb Williams and Co. can repeat the magic than has been suggested.
The over-under on this Bears season has been set at 9 1/2 by DraftKings and numerous other gambling or analytical websites, even with a slate of games considered No. 1 for strength of schedule.
Check out any number of predictions for this year and the Bears are listed among teams most likely to regress, or one of the division winner most unlikely to repeat.
Fact: Bears have favorite's role 12 times
And yet, there is evidence all of this means little and it's coming from Vegas lines themselves.
When the NFL schedule dropped this week, betting lines were set for each game to be played in the 17-game schedule.
I got my Bears going anywhere between 12-5 to 10-7.
Fortunately for the Bears they play most of the better teams on their schedule at home. pic.twitter.com/QTNoC824fp
— EJ 🇺🇸 (@itsmine49) May 15, 2026
According to logic, the Bears then should be a favorite in only about nine games, maybe 10, if they are at 9 1/2 over/under or victories.
Go through each of the 17 Bears games and you'll find the Bears are favored to win 12 of them, not nine or 10.
The only games in which the Bears opened as underdogs were first game against the Packers at Green Bay, the night game at Seattle, the game on Thanksgiving at Detroit, the game in December at Buffalo in the rematch with DJ Moore, and the season finale at Minnesota.
Bears favored in the 10th most games in the league but the third most in their division. It’s actually disgusting that the nfc north became demonic right as the bears started being a serious team https://t.co/HSzPYgF32y
— Zach🥭 (@Shemars_shooter) May 15, 2026
They're three-point underdogs at Green Bay, 4 1/2-point underdogs at Seattle, 2 1/2-point underdogs at Detroit, 3 1/2-point underdogs at Buffalo and 1 1/2-point underdogs at Minnesota.
The biggest home advantages they had at opening were 8 1/2 over the Jets and 6 1/2 over the Saints. Their biggest road edge is 5 1/2 at Miami.
The Bears have come a long way in the eyes of Vegas. Last year the Bears opened as favorites in only seven of their 17 games before going on to an 11-6 record and the NFC North title.
Chicago Bears have the toughest schedule in the league this year and Fox still has them at 11-6. That's how much trust there is in Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams right now. Year 2 of that partnership could be something special.
— Football Techs (@FootballTechs) May 16, 2026
Cliches like, "the home advantage is worth three points," mean nothing in terms of actually stating who the favorite is for a given game. Those are simply analysis of trends someone once noted.
The simple fact is the Bears were favored in 12 games at the start of betting on the actual schedule. It might eventually mean people realize a windfall by betting against them weekly, but in the eyes of Vegas making bets on the Bears last year was considered stupid. And look what it would have produced.
For those interested in such things, the Bears are 25-1 to win the Super Bowl, 13-1 to make it there. There are 14 teams with shorter odds to win the Super Bowl, so Vegas might see the Bears as big week-to-week winners, but not a serious threat to bring home the Lombardi Trophy.
The guys dropped their BOLD season predictions on Thursdays show!
- Live Schedule Release day reactions
- Game-by-game previews
- Give us your thoughts on how the upcoming Bears season will go 🐻⬇️
📺Watch here: https://t.co/IGC0yFcFt9 pic.twitter.com/4gQwdzDsix
— Bears Fan TV (@BearsFanTV) May 16, 2026
Someone requires more convincing.
Bears opening betting lines
2026 NFL schedule per DraftKings
Week 1: Bears -2 1/2 at Carolina
Week 2: Bears -3 1/2 vs. Vikings
Week 3: Bears -1 1/2 vs. Eagles
Week 4: Bears -8 1/2 vs. Jets
Week 5: Bears +3 at Packers
Week 6: Bears -3 at Falcons
Week 7: Bears -1 1/2 vs. Patriots
Week 8: Bears +4 1/2 at Seahawks
Week 9: Bears -3 1/2 vs. Buccaneers
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Bears -6 1/2 vs. Saints
Week 12: Bears +2 1/2 vs. Lions
Week 13: Bears -2 1/2 vs. Jaguars
Week 14: Bears -5 1/2 at Dolphins
Week 15: Bears +3 1/2 at Bills
Week 16: Bears -1 1/2 vs. Packers
Week 17: Bears -1 1/2 vs. Lions
Week 18: Bears +1 1/2 at Vikings
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Eat it, Green Bay.
— John D Bucciarelli (@jdbucciarelli) February 18, 2026
X: BearsOnSI
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