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Opta’s pre-season prediction is embarrassing reading for Chelsea now

Confirmation that Xabi Alonso is set to take over as Chelsea’s next manager could mark the start of a new era. But it doesn’t make up for the failures of the 2025-26 campaign.

Chelsea fans are delighted with BlueCo’s decision to hire Xabi Alonso and their ability to get a deal done for the manager before Liverpool entered the race. It came shortly after Chelsea lost the FA Cup final.

It’s going to be a big summer for Xabi Alonso and Chelsea!

Xabi Alonso graphic

Photo by Alberto Gardin/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Sunday’s results helped that optimism grow. Everton, Brentford, Brighton, and Fulham all failed to win, and that hands Chelsea the chance to climb from tenth place to eighth with a win against Tottenham.

Chelsea are in danger of failing to qualify for any European football at all, come the end of the season, and that will be a blow. Certainly, Opta’s pre-season prediction highlights how bad Chelsea have been.

Opta predicted Chelsea would finish in fourth position

At the start of the season, things looked promising for Chelsea. Europa Conference League winners and confident having won the Club World Cup, much was expected of Enzo Maresca’s side going into 25-26.

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Some even suggested they might be title challengers after beating PSG in the final across the pond. Yet, Chelsea were authors of their own downfall. Maresca was sacked, Liam Rosenior came in, sacked again.

Opta’s Supercomputer predicted Chelsea to finish in fourth place, on a total of 63.60 points. Rounded up to 64, Chelsea are a whopping 15 points behind what they are expected to achieve after 38 matches.

Alonso will be watching from afar. But right now, it is on Calum McFarlane’s shoulders to get Chelsea into Europe next season, at least a place in the Conference League with two league games remaining to play.

Currently in tenth place, a win against Tottenham takes Chelsea into eighth on goal difference. Finishing in eighth would guarantee Conference League football. Seventh will guarantee Europa League football.

Sixth could still mean a place in the Champions League, but it would require Aston Villa to drop from fourth into fifth and to then go and beat German side Freiburg in the Europa League final this week.

Chelsea can still finish sixth, but that would require Bournemouth to lose both of their remaining two games. The Blues also need Brighton and Brentford to drop points against Man United and Liverpool.

Sunday’s results certainly give Chelsea a chance. But all the Blues can do, for now, is end a winless run in the Premier League stretching to seven games. Chelsea need to beat Spurs at Stamford Bridge tomorrow.

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