With the schedule release, I have seen a lot of Chiefs fans in full meltdown mode online, saying things like we are only winning 7 games this year and going to pick in the top 10 again. While I am not going to flat out lie and say that is not a possibility, I think there are a lot of reasons for optimism for this upcoming season. There are several reasons to be pessimistic as well, but I think as offseason activities progress, we can be more sure of what things will look like for this upcoming season.
Reasons for Optimism:
#1 Patrick Mahomes is committed to the game and his recovery.
It's hard to say when exactly he will be 100% again, but if I was a betting man (my wife said no to sports betting a long time ago), I would say that Mahomes is 100% again around Week 4-5. I think he will play sooner to give this team a good chance to push for a playoff seed, but I think Reid will rely on a lot of quick passes, screens, gadget plays, and runs to take the pressure off Mahomes to be Superman.
#2 The Revamped Running Back Room
There have been many reports and articles about the new look RB room this offseason, with K3 leading the room, Emari Demercado as an explosive backup, Emmett Johnson as a change of pace back, and Brashard Smith as the gadget/niche RB4?? Even with a disappointing performance this season from any one of these guys, there are 1-2 guys who can pick up the slack in this room and elevate it past what it was last year. The floor is significantly higher than it has been since Pacheco/McKinnon.
#3 Weaker Early Schedule
The Broncos play us Week 1, the Colts Week 2, the Dolphins Week 3, and the Raiders Week 4. While the Broncos are quite formidable, there are a lot of question marks around the other three teams here. I think this could give the Chiefs and Mahomes a lot of chances to "get right" before the absolute gauntlet later in the season. The early opponents also give us a chance to test a full playbook that has been limited due to limits in the position groups on offense.
Reasons for Pessimism:
#1 So Much Uncertainty
I will give the Debbie-Downers (Sorry if your name is Debbie) one thing for sure: This season feels like the most uncertain season the Chiefs have had in the last 8 years and that is kind of terrifying when you have Mahomes under the helm. You never want to "waste" a year of a player like Mahomes, but the reality is there are so many questions for this team: Will Mahomes actually be ready to play Week 1 and should he? Can the team stay healthy? Will Jaylon Moore or Esa Pole start at RT? What is the CB room going to look at after losing several starters and role players? How much will losing Chenal hurt the LB room? I could go on for a while. Simply put, there are a number of factors for the Chiefs to figure out before the season starts and we aren't even in the building.
#2 Strength of Schedule
Recently, the strength of schedule stats came out and the Chiefs have the 5th hardest predicted schedule. That 6-11 record did diddly squat for us in lowering our difficulty setting on this upcoming season (I know how it works, but still...come on). Weeks 12-15 are going to be very hard for the Chiefs and the AFC West is only getting tougher to compete for, with the Raiders possibly becoming less of a poverty franchise with Mendoza at the helm. Safe to say, the Chiefs record is going to be a tough battle after the Week 5 Bye.
Overall, it is very hard to say exactly how well the Chiefs will perform this season. But, I think it is important for Chiefs fans to realize that we still have a lot of potential for this upcoming season. Maybe not Super Bowl level potential, but a real chance to be competitive.