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The Premier League European race has taken several new turns with Brentford, Brighton, Sunderland, Chelsea and Newcastle United all involved heading into the final day.
It turns out Newcastle United could end up having something to play for on the final day of the season after all.
The Magpies’ 3-1 win over West Ham United has kept the side’s slim European chances alive heading into the final day.
Newcastle can still finish as high as eighth, which is now a Conference League qualification place following Manchester City’s FA Cup win over the weekend.
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How Newcastle United can still qualify for Europe
Frustratingly for Newcastle, had just a handful of their 27 dropped points from winning positions been avoided, they would be firmly in the European or even the Champions League race.
But the reality of Newcastle’s season is such that they are where they deserve to be as things stand, as they sit 11th in the table heading into the final game of the season against Fulham at Craven Cottage on Sunday.
Heading into the final day of the season, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Aston Villa have all secured Champions League qualification.
Liverpool will also secure a top-five finish if Bournemouth lose to Manchester City on Tuesday night. If the Cherries win, they could still pip the Reds to fifth place and the final Champions League spot on the final day.
Bournemouth are guaranteed some form of European football for the first time and currently occupies a Europa League spot. That would see that Europa League spot forfeited and changed to a Champions League spot if Villa drop to fifth and win the Europa League. Bournemouth face Nottingham Forest on the final day
Brighton are seventh and host Manchester United on the final day knowing a point would likely be enough to secure European football.
There are then six teams heading into the final day with a chance of securing the final European spot. Brentford and Sunderland could still finish as high as seventh.
The Black Cats know a win against Chelsea on the final day would give them a great chance of securing European football for the first time based on league position. Anything less would see them miss out.
Chelsea sit two points behind Sunderland in 10th, but also have a game in hand against Tottenham Hotspur in midweek.
Newcastle, Everton, and Fulham are all level on points with Chelsea in 11th, 12th and 13th respectively. All have an outside chance of qualifying for Europe on the final day.
For that to happen, they would need Chelsea to lose or draw with Spurs in midweek, then also draw with Sunerland.
In addition to that, they would need Brentford to lose to Liverpool. If all that happens, it would come down to goal difference.
Newcastle need a three goal difference swing, which is entirely possible, provided at least one of the games has a goal gap of more than one.
Everton needs a five goal difference swing, which is less likely but still possible given the wild nature of final day scorelines at times.
Fulham would need a minor miracle to overturn a nine-goal difference swing and all results go their way. If that happens, Newcastle will be in for a very difficult afternoon at the Cottage.
Do clubs really want Conference League qualification?
While qualifying for Europe in successive seasons would be seen as a positive achievement for Newcastle, given their struggles for the majority of the season, Conference League football can be viewed by Premier League clubs as somewhat of a distraction with very little financial reward at the end of it.
Crystal Palace have reached the Conference League final and are favourites to win the competition, but their prize money stands at around £15million. In comparison, Newcastle made over £55million for reaching the last-16 of the Champions League this season.
While Newcastle will be adhering to UEFA’s financial rules regardless of whether they qualify for Europe or not, qualifying for the Conference League could sting clubs that are not set up to operate with a 70% squad cost.
The added matches and toll it takes on the squad can then have a knock-on impact on a side’s domestic form. Palace, for example, sit 15th in the table but will qualify for the Europa League should they beat Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League final this month.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire also spoke about why clubs may not want to qualify for the Conference League
“The weird thing is that I think the club finishing [ninth] in the Premier League is going to end up in a better position than the club that qualifies for the Conference League,” he told talkSPORT. “If you qualify for the Conference League, you have to abide by UEFA's rules, which say that you can only spend 70 per cent of your revenue on player costs.
“If you don't qualify for Europe and finish eighth, you can spend 85 per cent. Albania on a Thursday night, nobody particularly wants to go there from the club apart from the fans. And they certainly don't want to do that from the boardroom point of view.”
Newcastle’s hierarchy was asked about the benefits of European qualification to the club, with Conference League qualification described as ‘better than nothing’.
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