The release of the NFL schedule reveals exactly what Bears quarterback Caleb Williams faces week to week as he tries to continue the progress the offense showed last season.
Since opponents were already known, much of what opposing defenses would present for the Bears already was evident. However, lumping together games and sections of the schedule provides the real clarity.
The crucial start to this season becomes much more clear. The rest of what the Bears and Williams face can change as the season progresses, but the start could determine where everything breaks for the Bears on offense.
At least based on last year's statistics, it doesn't say Williams is going to come out shredding secondaries and piling up air yards on his way to a 4,000-yard season. It will take a much greater level of consistency in his first NFL season using the same offense for successive years. Basing it on last year's statistics might sound unreliable, but if strength of schedule uses this approach then statistics can support it, as well.
"At the end of this season, I think we may say that Kyler Murray is the best quarterback [in the NFC North.]" @BartScott57 has high expectations for Kyler Murray as the Minnesota Vikings' QB 👀 pic.twitter.com/bYOO9NveuV
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) May 13, 2026
Running early the best Bears option
The start to the season looks extremely difficult for Williams through the air, not only because of DJ Moore's departure and the adjustment to some new targets but because of the pass defenses they'll go against.
Conversely, many teams they face coming out of the gate struggled to stop the run last year. Coach Ben Johnson should love this because he is, after all, a run-first play caller. If it is there to be exploited, the run legitimizes the pass. Play-action freezes defenders.
In Week 1, Carolina was 15th against the pass
Week 2 Minnesota was second
Week 3 Philadelphia eighth
Week 4 the Jets 17th, which is somewhat deceiving considering they gave up more touchdown passes than any team
Week 5 Green Bay 11th
Who will be the best QB in the NFC North next year?
Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, or whoever is the Vikings’ QB?
Poll questions on @JimMattMolly are presented by @Siding_LLC
— ESPN Madison (@ESPNMadison) February 10, 2026
Week 6 Atlanta 13th
Week 7 New England ninth
Week 8 Seattle 10th
The new guys
The Bears finally begin to face a few of the weaker pass defenses on their schedule in the season's second half. They do face the top-ranked pass defense later, though. That's the Buffalo Bills.
What's interesting about Buffalo is it has a new defensive coordinator and new coach this season so much could change. The Bears do not face a lot of the teams with new defensive coordinators but there are a few.
Last time the Bears played the Panthers:
- Caleb Williams threw for 304 yards
- DJ Moore had 2 TDs
- Bears won 36-10 pic.twitter.com/vASqE5qhT8
— Depressed Bears Fan (@DepBearsFan) May 14, 2026
The Bills game on Dec. 19 is in the middle of a three-game stretch against defenses with new people calling the shots.
Miami and Green Bay also have new coordinators and are in that stretch.
The flip side
Johnson's opportunity to exploit the run is there early when the passing game is going against tough secondaries and pass rushes.
Carolina's defense was only 20th against the run
Minnesota in Week 2 was 21st
Vic Fangio's Philadelphia Eagles were 22nd
The Jet were 29th stopping the run
Green Bay was 18th
Atlanta was 24th
It's Week 6 where this ability to pound the ball at defenses will end, at least based on last year's statistics.
What’s a successful season for the Bears offense this year and how do they achieve it?
I think we’re gonna see ALOT of TEs on the field and a STRONG running game.
My goal for the Bears is to be the BEST rushing team in the NFL. #DaBears #Bears #ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/b4iikzhApW
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) May 6, 2026
The Bears run face-first into some of the league's best run defenses in three straight weeks. New England was sixth, Seattle third, and Tampa Bay fifth.
By this point in the season, Williams and his receivers should be in sync enough to face most challenges. They'll need to be at that point.
Early blocking efficiency
The Bears made offensive line changes since last year, with Garrett Bradbury at center and probably Braxton Jones at left tackle. They'll need those players up and ready early in the blocking scheme to run effectively against weaker run defenses they face then, because the pass blocking might not hold up as well against defenses so strong against the pass.
"He's got two big advantages: He's got a great offensive coach and his game is fun."@colincowherd reacts to Caleb Williams being the betting favorite to win the 2026 MVP pic.twitter.com/oBi8Axfksd
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) February 11, 2026
Based on what happened with last year's offense, it could be a challenge for this to happen. The Bears did not come out running it well in the first four games, averaging just over 100 yards a game. Then they benched Jones, who was having trouble returning to full strength after his 2024 ankle surgery. The ground game took off and so did the offense.
It's going to be critical this season to have what they plan to do on the line working efficiently on the ground in order to give Williams a chance against these stronger pass defenses at the outset.
How Williams has fared against these teams
All told, Williams is going against teams he has enjoyed average success against. He has a passer rating of 89.35 against all of this year's opponents. His career passer rating overall is 89.0.
Down 21-3. Caleb Williams leads the comeback to end the Packers season. 🥶pic.twitter.com/3Gc3aWBhJf https://t.co/vTkdUjcOQ0
— Caleb Williams Fan Club (@CalebFC18) May 16, 2026
Williams' career touchdown percentage is 4.2% and against opponents on this schedule he has faced he has a 4.3% TD rate. His career interception rate against these teams is 1.2% and that's exactly what his career interception rate is.
It's the same thing with his yards per attempt. His career average is 6.6, a figure that needs badly to increase.
Against opponents on this schedule he has been at 6.55.
Williams' greatest challenge is getting the completion percentage higher than its current 60.3% level. For his career, against this year's opponents, he's at 60.8%.
If he is to improve against this schedule, it's going to take a true step up in his skill level in so many ways.
What can’t be denied is the start to this Bears season and for Williams' third season will truly be a tone setter, for better or worse.
Caleb Williams’ feel for pressure is ridiculous.
Looking back at this throw from last season… still one of the best of his career. Pocket awareness, creativity, and absolute ice in a huge moment. pic.twitter.com/9oGlTE6Iui
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) May 16, 2026
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