Pep Guardiola thought long and hard about his future this season before finally making up his mind, as Manchester City still hope for another change of heart
Pep Guardiola is set to step down as Manchester City manager
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Everybody knew that Pep Guardiola was leaving Manchester City this summer, it turns out. There has been a rush of journalists, pundits and fans all saying that it has been obvious for ages. Almost all of them are wrong.
Even with both feet out of the door, there is still the faintest of hope at the Etihad that somebody or something can sweep Guardiola back in to see out the final year of his contract. Because, as can happen when you have been at the club for a decade, none of this is new.
Guardiola wondered himself whether he would survive at the worst point of his first year in English football, with his reputation and his style shredded brutally by the reality of the English game. Then, after bending the Premier League to his will with the highest ever points tally in a single season, he signed a contract extension until 2021 and those same people smugly congratulating themselves now doubted that he would see that out.
There was, of course, uncertainty, but that stemmed from Guardiola weighing up his best options and changing his mind. City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak and his colleagues made it clear from the outset they wanted the Catalan to stay for as long as possible.
Most of the time he has been all in, but sometimes he has been out - like in November 2024 when he performed a dramatic U-turn when the performances of the team started to spiral. "Since the beginning of the season I've been thinking a lot," Guardiola said after signing his contract. "I thought that (this season) should be the last one.
"But with the problems we had in the last month, I felt that now is not the time to leave. I would have let the club down. I felt that I could not leave now. Simple as that. Maybe the four defeats was the reason why and I felt that I cannot leave. I felt the club still wanted me and the fact we're still together so I signed."
With Guardiola both impulsive and private as a person, and City increasingly willing to wait as long as it takes for the genius in charge of them to come to a decision, there have been many contingencies drawn up, but plan A has always been to keep the man they have. Every year he has stayed has increased the likelihood that he will leave - sporting director Txiki Begiristain always said he would hire Guardiola's successor but even he was outlasted and left last summer - and yet the Catalan has outlasted most of his staff.
His decision to stay in late 2024, after being courted that summer by England, raised eyebrows with club staff and even more so when it was announced as a two-year deal. That, it was felt, was likely a mechanism for Guardiola to avoid constant questioning in press conferences about an expiring contract and to give him cover for a year.
Even then though, they could not know for certain and others close to the manager pointed out that he has never not seen out a contract in his career; if he gives his word, he does not break it. Time will tell, but it would be no surprise to find that there was a break clause in the deal or a gentleman's agreement with the chairman given everything Guardiola has given to City over the last decade.
Guardiola started to speak out more this season about everything from referees to Donald Trump and Palestine, going further than he ever had before in the manner of a man who was not bothered about lasting relationships. Some would counter that he never particularly was though, and it will also have been hard for a serial winner to walk away from a young team that has already won two trophies this season and is expected to be even better next year.
The manager was still instrumental in the January signings of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi, and while both were told that the majority of their careers at the Etihad would not be with Guardiola, there was no specific time limit given because it was still an unknown then. A man who has won it all before is still here, trying to win even more.
That also explains Guardiola's stance around his future, even when he had made up his mind. The manager has spent his whole career keeping players on their toes for every training session knowing that they could be called upon at any moment, so having them in the dark over his future for basically the whole year has helped to ensure that there was never a drop-off.
Then there are the charges. Guardiola has been unrivalled as the biggest defender of City from the accusations that were first thrown at them by the Premier League in 2023. The most serious allegations barely cover the period that the 55-year-old has been at the Etihad yet he has gone above and beyond to insist on the club's innocence when he has every opportunity to run away.
If some of the uninformed may like to paint his departure this summer as related to that, the reality is that it will pain Guardiola to be leaving before the verdict is out. However, like Begiristain when tasked with finding his replacement, sometimes you cannot wait forever.
City hoped he would, but as they have done for years now they have done the due diligence to come up with alternatives. This time, it involved speaking to Enzo Maresca while he was at Chelsea and his appetite for taking over has been shown in his willingness to wait around without a job after leaving Stamford Bridge in January; the Italian could easily have been floated for a raft of Premier League and national team jobs that have come up and yet the silence has been telling.
Part of Maresca's work has been to wait for something that may not have come, for Guardiola only decided recently that he was definitely out. While he has maintained in press conferences that he is sticking around, the visit to Stockport last month smacked of taking up an offer from his landlord that had likely been an open invitation for years.
It was the end of April when it was hastily confirmed that the new North Stand would be opened in time for the final home game of the season, welcoming another 7,000 fans into the Etihad for what would be a record attendance. Work to finish the construction has been chaotic since then in a hurry to get it done - including inviting the silly row over the FA Youth Cup final - after the chairman made it clear last month that it had to happen.
It won't be done on Sunday, but it should be open at least to allow Guardiola another record and the biggest farewell possible. And while the coach would not have wanted news to leak ahead of such a crucial Premier League game, as soon as he confirmed his decision he will have known that the wheels would have to start turning both for tributes to him and for the transition.
In reality, it was amazing that the secret kept as long as it did given the noise has ramped up so much over the last few weeks when everything has clearly been in motion behind the scenes. That may not appease Guardiola for the trip to Bournemouth, but he very nearly got everything he wanted just as he has throughout his ten years at the Etihad.
If there was regret and he felt personally responsible for the team's slump at the start of the 2024/25 season after telling the board that summer that the squad did not need a refresh, Guardiola has overseen the start of a new team that have already won two trophies and could yet win a third this week. He could stay for more, but he goes out on a high while he still has the appetite for more.
Guardiola has suggested previously that he will take a break next, but he also has his eyes set on international management and there could be more than one vacancy after the World Cup that interests him; Spain will surely be a no-go but England, Italy, and Brazil could tempt. As he has done at City, the manager will likely be flexible over what he does next.
He knows though that wherever he goes he will always be welcome back at the Etihad. City fans have to say goodbye this week, yet his legacy will stretch beyond even permanent tributes given the way Guardiola has changed the club and the memories he has given supporters.
Just as Guardiola's departure will leave a big hole in a club that had been set up specifically for him, he has given so much of himself that his mark will be felt for decades yet.