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Who will be in England's World Cup squad? Arsenal and Newcastle United stars could miss out

England’s World Cup squad will be confirmed on Friday - we look at the players likely to be on the plane this summer.

On Friday 22 May, Thomas Tuchel will name his final 26-man England squad for the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the United States – but figuring out which players will be on the flight over the Atlantic and which will be watching from the comfort of their sofas isn’t easy. There are bound to be some controversial choices.

England have already selected a 55-man preliminary squad and while The FA have opted not to release that list publicly, leaks have suggested that fringe players under consideration include Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luke Shaw and Danny Welbeck.

Tuchel has made it pretty clear that public opinion doesn’t factor into his selections. This is a coach who has stubbornly selected players like Jordan Henderson regardless of the raised eyebrows of the fans, a manager who plainly knows his own mind. Based on those selections over the past 18 months, we reckon that 18 players are nailed on for the squad – leaving seven spaces up for grabs…

The 18 players likely assured of a place in England’s World Cup Squad

Goalkeepers: Dean Henderson, Jordan Pickford, James Trafford; Defenders: Marc Guéhi, Reece James, Ezri Konsa, Nico O’Reilly, John Stones; Midfielders: Elliot Anderson, Jude Bellingham, Jordan Henderson, Declan Rice, Morgan Rogers; Forwards: Anthony Gordon, Harry Kane, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Bukayo Saka.

The three goalkeepers seem to be set in stone, with Aaron Ramsdale – the next cab off the rank – struggling to get games in for Newcastle, and while there’s a case to be made that John Stones hasn’t been getting enough minutes with Manchester City it’s evident that Tuchel greatly admires him. When he has been fit and available, Stones has been in the squad.

Tuchel also values veteran leadership, which is why we’re confident that Henderson will be on the plane alongside Stones. The England head coach has said in the past that he doesn’t pick his squads on talent alone, but also on whether they make a good team-mates – Henderson fits the bill, and has been in every squad since Tuchel took charge partly for that reason. It’s naïve to think that he might suddenly be dropped even though his playing time will likely be very limited.

A few fans might wonder about Cole Palmer’s place in the squad after a difficult, injury-affected season, but it’s hard to imagine England setting off without him. He probably won’t be a starter, but his combination of proven quality and positional versatility means that his place seems pretty safe. There are players behind him who are more likely to be dropped. Injuries and incident aside, every other player on this list is nailed on.

Predicting the final eight places – with Arsenal & Newcastle stars missing out

Defenders: Lewis Hall, Tino Livramento, Harry Maguire; Midfielders: Phil Foden, Kobbie Mainoo; Forwards: Jarrod Bowen, Eberechi Eze, Ollie Watkins.

Here’s where it starts to get rather trickier. Tuchel’s squad for the March internationals give us some strong hints, however, as do his selections over time – but there will be some difficult decisions to be made by Friday.

At full-back, Hall and Livramento seem to have the edge over players like Alexander-Arnold, Shaw and Djed Spence right now, but Hall only recently fought his way back into the set-up while Livramento is carrying an injury. He’s expected to be fit to play and will probably get a call-up, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Spence was picked instead. Ben White, another March selection, is presumed unavailable due to an MCL injury.

At centre-back, there seems to be a head-to-head battle between Dan Burn and Harry Maguire for what’s likely to be one place. Burn has been a regular inclusion in Tuchel’s squads but it was Maguire who got the nod against Uruguay in the spring while Burn earned just seven minutes from the bench. That’s a call which could go either way and it’s possible that Tuchel ends up taking both, but we’re guessing that Newcastle’s towering centre-back gets left behind.

In midfield, we strongly suspect that Kobbie Mainoo will be the primary back-up to Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice, with Henderson’s presence keeping Adam Wharton out of the side. The Crystal Palace midfielder hasn’t done much wrong, but Mainoo’s recent form has been excellent and the Manchester United man got the nod to start against Japan in March. James Garner has an outside chance of being involved too but may not have had enough time to make his case for inclusion.

If Phil Foden does get selected, quite a few fans won’t be thrilled. He’s struggled to find his best form this season, hasn’t been a regular starter for Manchester City and even in previous years has rarely been a force for the Three Lions – but Tuchel seems to value his talent, and like Palmer his positional versatility counts in his favour. We aren’t confident that he’ll go, but we think it’s likely.

The multi-positional spot that Foden might occupy in the squad could go to Eberechi Eze instead, and we suspect he’ll be on the plane either way. Both he and Jarrod Bowen have been regular call-ups under Tuchel even if neither are likely starters. With the pair providing the depth on the wings, we think that Arsenal’s Noni Madueke could be left out – he has every chance, but it’s hard to imagine all four of Madueke, Eze, Bowen and Foden being in the final squad. We’re guessing that Madueke is the unlucky loser of that particular battle.

Perhaps the single toughest call to make from the outside is who Tuchel will take as Harry Kane’s back-up. We know that Welbeck is under consideration and both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Dominic Solanke were given a chance to impress during the March international break, but form – and fitness concerns in Solanke’s case – may push Tuchel back towards Ollie Watkins.

The Aston Villa striker wasn’t in either of Tuchel’s last two squads, but none of the alternatives have made a compelling case and Watkins has rediscovered his scoring touch of late with nine goals in his last 10 matches. Given Tuchel’s clear appreciation of experience, our best guess is that he sneaks back in to the side. We wouldn’t care to wager any cash on that, however.

There doesn’t seem to be much chance of a big, Theo Walcott in 2006-style shock in the squad. One could make a case for Rio Ngumoha, perhaps, who has been exceptionally impressive for Liverpool of late, but Tuchel doesn’t seem like the kind of coach to throw a teenager in at the deep end out of nowhere. But perhaps the German has something unexpected up his sleeve - we’ll find out on Friday.

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