Sunderland know exactly what they need on the final day as their European hopes go to the wire
Sunderland’s task is clear in one sense and complicated in another.
Régis Le Bris’ side go into the final day 10th in the Premier League table on 51 points, behind Brighton in seventh on 53, Chelsea in eighth on 52 and Brentford in ninth on 52. Bournemouth, in sixth on 56 points, are out of Sunderland’s reach.
Sunderland must beat Chelsea
The first part is non-negotiable: Sunderland have to beat Chelsea at theStadium of Light. A draw is no good in any realistic sense because Chelsea would stay above them, Brighton would remain ahead, and Brentford’s superior goal difference would make that route all but impossible even if they lost at Liverpool.
If Sunderland want Europe, they need three points. Victory would move the Black Cats to 54 points and take them above Chelsea, who would remain on 52.
What Sunderland need elsewhere
From there, Sunderland need one of two things to happen elsewhere: Brentford fail to beat Liverpool at Anfield, or Brighton lose at home to Manchester United.
That is the simplest route. Sunderland win, and either Brentford draw or lose, or Brighton lose. If that happens, Sunderland finish at least eighth - which is enough for European football because Manchester City’s FA Cup win has pushed the European places down the Premier League table.
Why goal difference matters
The goal difference column is important. Brighton’s goal difference is +9, while Sunderland’s is -7. That means a Brighton draw against Manchester United would almost certainly be enough to keep them above Sunderland even if the Black Cats beat Chelsea.
For Sunderland to catch Brighton on goal difference if Brighton draw would require a freakish swing of around 17 goals. In practical terms, Sunderland need Brighton to lose if they are going to overtake them.
Brentford are different. They are only one point ahead of Sunderland, so a draw at Liverpool would not be enough for them if Sunderland beat Chelsea. Brentford would move to 53, while Sunderland would move to 54. A Brentford defeat would obviously also open the door.
Conference League and Europa league routes
The clean version is this: Sunderland qualify for Europe if they beat Chelsea and either Brentford fail to win at Liverpool, or Brighton lose to Manchester United. If only one of those two results goes Sunderland’s way, the Black Cats are looking at eighth place and Conference League football.
There is also a bigger prize still available. If Sunderland beat Chelsea, Brentford fail to win and Brighton lose, then Sunderland finish seventh. That would mean Europa League football, not Conference League. It is the biggest possible final-day outcome for Sunderland.
Aston Villa winning Europa League impact
Aston Villa’s Europa League win does not damage Sunderland’s route to Europe, despite adding another layer to the wider qualification picture.
Villa have qualified for the Champions League by winning the Europa League, but the key point for Sunderland is that the impact sits higher up the table rather than around the Black Cats. Seventh and eighth remain the positions that matter for Régis Le Bris’ side heading into the final day.
Villa’s success does not take a potential Sunderland place away. Nor does it open up a new route lower down the table. The only way England would have six Champions League places is if Villa were to finish fifth, because they would then qualify as Europa League winners without occupying one of the usual top-four league spots.
As things stand going into Sunday’s final round of Premier League fixtures, Villa are fourth and three points clear of Liverpool in fifth. That may matter to the Champions League race, but it does not change Sunderland’s equation. The Black Cats still have to beat Chelsea and hope either Brentford fail to win at Liverpool or Brighton lose to Manchester United.
Crystal Palace winning Conference League impact
Crystal Palace potentially winning the Conference League also does not take anything away from Sunderland. If Palace win the final, they would qualify for the Europa League as an additional English club because they are not in position to qualify through the Premier League.
That would increase the number of English teams in Europe, but it would not hand ninth place a European spot, and it would not remove eighth from the equation.
Arsenal winning Champions League impact
Arsenal’s position in the final of the Champions League does not have an impact. Sunderland’s concern is still seventh and eighth. Even if Arsenal were to win the Champions League while already qualifying domestically, that place would not be passed down the Premier League table.
The final-day picture
For Sunderland, it comes down to three grounds: the Stadium of Light, Anfield and the Amex. Beat Chelsea first. Hope Liverpool take points off Brentford, or Manchester United beat Brighton. If both happen, the dream gets even bigger.
Conference League route: Sunderland beat Chelsea, and either Brentford fail to win or Brighton lose.
Europa League route: Sunderland beat Chelsea, Brentford fail to win, and Brighton lose.
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