There is plenty of optimism back at Stamford Bridge again with Chelsea appointing Xabi Alonso and then beating Tottenham on Tuesday – but what are their chances of qualifying for the Europa League?
The win over Tottenham has put Chelsea into eighth place, and if the table was to finish as it is now, the Blues would end the season qualifying for the Conference League. Chelsea go to Sunderland on Sunday.
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7th and 8th are the European places!
Chelsea Premier League table on final day of the season
Via – GRV Media
But Chelsea have been there and done that. They remain the Europa Conference League holders and boast players who will feel they deserve to be playing for clubs in the Champions League next season.
Bournemouth’s draw against Man City means Chelsea can only finish in seventh place, best-case scenario. So, what are Chelsea’s chances of finishing the season in seventh, with a trip to Sunderland up next?
Opta share chances of Chelsea finishing in seventh position
The European coefficient and Aston Villa winning the Europa League means six Premier League sides could be in next season’s Champions League. It makes Chelsea’s failure to qualify even more worrying.
But the Europa League is still on the cards. Brighton are currently in seventh, largely helped by their 3-0 win over the Blues in what turned out to be Liam Rosenior’s last game in charge as Chelsea head coach.
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Chelsea would need to beat Sunderland at the Stadium of Light, which in itself is a tall order, and hope Brighton fail to beat Manchester United at The Amex. Opta give Chelsea a 27% chance to finish seventh.
Not the best of odds. Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 Premier League games and the Black Cats will be pushing for European qualification themselves. A Brighton win ends any Chelsea hope.
What happens if Chelsea can only manage a draw?
A draw could be enough to take Chelsea into seventh, but they would have to rely on results a whole lot more. Chelsea would need Brighton to lose, by two goals, with the Seagulls’ goal difference two better.
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Chelsea have scored more goals than Brighton, but a draw on Wearside and a two-goal defeat for Fabian Hurzeler’s side would be enough. That is, if Brentford also fail to win. They take on a struggling Liverpool.
No doubt Xabi Alonso will be watching on. The new boss has unfinished business in the Europa League, losing the 2023-24 final as Bayer Leverkusen manager against Atalanta after an unbeaten league season.
Chelsea’s hierarchy would obviously prefer to finish in the Europa League given the finances. But the Conference League would allow Alonso to play a B team as Enzo Maresca did. It’s all up for grabs.
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