A discussion regarding several causes for optimism entering the Champions League final.
Arsenal are the new Premier League champions, and deservedly so. On Sunday, they formally lifted the trophy they have chased for 22 years. But the job’s not finished. On Saturday, they have a chance to accomplish an even greater feat.
The Gunners will travel to Budapest for a showdown against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final. It is Arsenal’s first appearance in perhaps the biggest game in club football in 20 years. That previous debut of course was the infamous 2-1 loss to Barcelona in 2006.
This time around, Mikel Arteta’s men will take on a PSG side that defeated them last season by an aggregate score of 3-1 on the way to winning the competition. Indeed, the champions of France enter this final clash of the club season as overwhelming favorites. Wherever you look, almost everyone who isn’t an Arsenal supporter or EBL seems to think the Gunners are drastically outmatched.
And to be fair, that’s understandable. After all, PSG have built not just one of the best teams on the planet but perhaps one of the most formidable sides in history to boot. The most dominant club in Ligue 1 can call on the talents of the current holder of the Ballon d’Or in Ousmane Dembélé, as well as probably the other best winger in the world aside from Lamine Yamal in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Desire Doué and Bradley Barcola round out the best set of forwards in the world, which plays ahead of one of the best midfields in the sport. And their back four is no joke, either.
But this is a new season. This is a different Arsenal team, playing in a one-off match on neutral soil for all the marbles. And there are a few things about Arteta’s men ahead of this game that make me convinced they stand genuine chance of ending the week as Champions League winners.
1) A Champion’s Wind In Their Sails
As I stated before and as you surely know by now, Arsenal have just been crowned champions of the English top flight. After finishing second three times in a row, after coming up short in multiple heartbreaking ways, the Gunners finally got a league title over the line. Finishing seven points above second-placed Manchester City, they can truthfully say that they were the best team in the Premier League this season. And they earned that status in perhaps the most competitive iteration of the league that we have ever seen.
That sort of achievement instills an unparalleled level of confidence in a side. Such an accomplishment serves as a longstanding reminder that they belong at the highest level of the game. It creates an unshakeable belief within a team that they can go toe to toe with the very best opponents.
You can already see that in these Arsenal players. There is a swagger in these newly anointed champions that we didn’t see as they battened down the hatches and held on for a 1-0 home win to Burnley, or when they held on for a victory of the same scoreline at Brighton. In all of their media appearances and interviews since winning the Premier League each and every member of the Arsenal squad has looked and sounded more sure of themselves. They know they’re winners now.
And I think this will translate to their on-pitch performance on Sunday. We are going to see an Arsenal team that will know they are stepping onto the pitch as English champions. That should mean they largely refrain from some of the tentativeness we’ve seen over the course of their title-winning league campaign.
For those of you who might think this is too much of a soft factor to note in the buildup, I would simply posit this hypothetical to you: imagine if Arsenal didn’t win the league this season. Imagine if after the defeat at the Etihad the Gunners fumbled the title to Manchester City again, once again proving right all those who waited with bated breath to call them “bottlers”. In what sort of mental state would they enter this match?
In all likelihood, it would be one of fear. This would be their last chance to save the season instead of a new achievement to aim for with a trophy already under their belts. Arsenal would know what awaited them if they failed to come away from the Champions League final with a trophy. And that probably would have resulted in them playing within themselves.
Instead, I think Arteta’s men will understand what an opportunity this moment is — a chance to finally bringingthe European championship back to north London, something that not even Arsenal’s most legendary teams have been able to accomplish. And they should now feel capable of meeting this moment with the seriousness, quality, and fearlessness it deserves. Which is critical; as we’ll discuss later, defeating PSG will require bravery in the Gunners’ play.
2) A Bigger and Fitter Squad Than Before
When Arsenal encountered PSG in last season’s semifinals, the Gunners were navigating a full-blown injury crisis. Without key players such as Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori, and Kai Havertz, Arteta fielded the following starting eleven: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Jakub Kiwior, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Mikel Merino, Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, and Gabriel Martinelli. On paper this team may seem serviceable. But Saka was still working his way back from a hamstring tear suffered four months prior, and Timber wasn’t fully fit either. And the bench offered no relief for a weakened lineup; the manager’s potential finishers consisted of Neto, Tommy Setford, Ben White, Kieran Tierney, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Ismael Kabia, Jack Henry-Francis, Nathan Butler-Oyedeji, and the fading specter of Raheem Sterling. Arteta made only two substitutions in the first leg.
In Paris, Jorginho and Calafiori returned to the squad. Merino was able to play at center forward due to new availabilities, but it wasn’t enough. The Gunners were too underpowered in order to overturn the deficit.
On this occasion, Arsenal go into the final with more players available and a much stronger squad overall. Gabriel and Havertz are fit and firing, as is Calafiori. Saka is more fit than he was the last time he came up against PSG as well. Ben White is unfortunately done for the season but Timber may be able to feature on Saturday.
Additionally, the Gunners have brought in serious reinforcements since they last facedLes Parisiens. Arsenal have brought a squad to Budapest that now also boasts Cristhian Mosquera, Piero Hincapié, Martín Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyökeres, and Noni Madueke. Perhaps more than has ever been the case, this side contains serious variety and depth.
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What this means is that Arsenal can play in a variety of different ways. They can play a more ball-dominant game with Ødegaard and Havertz, or go more direct with Eze and Gyökeres. The Gunners can go with a safer approach by deploying Zubimendi in midfield, or they can opt for Lewis-Skelly’s elite ball-carrying and brave passing that carries some risk. Calafiori and Trossard can start to maximize the attacking potential of Arsenal’s left side, while Hincapié and Martinelli can come on later in the match to help see out a lead. If Arteta’s men need a goal, they can call on Merino, Madueke, and whichever striker doesn’t start.
Naturally, this requires PSG to prepare for a plethora of different scenarios. Arsenal’s versatility ensures that they not only can adapt to a multitude of different game states, but are far less predictable than they were last season. And the current European champions’ squad might not be able to handle all the different directions the Gunners can choose to take the game in.
3) Set Piece Dominance
Of course, Arsenal have a secret weapon: their world class dead ball prowess. Under the tutelage of Nicolas Jover, the Gunners have scored a whopping 34 goals from set pieces in all competitions this season. 25 of those have come in the Premier League, including a record-breaking 19 goals from corner kicks.
Entering the Champions League final, the core components of the Arsenal dead ball apparatus are all in place. Rice and Saka, as the main takers of the team’s set pieces, will be available. Just as crucially, Gabriel and Havertz — perhaps the Gunners’ two biggest threats when the ball is launched into the opponents’ penalty area — figure to make an appearance, unlike in last year’s clash.
Now, UEFA referees do not tolerate jostling in the box as much as Premier League referees do. Arsenal will need to be a little more careful about how they execute their set pieces. But I can’t help but feel that as long as they can rack up a handful of corner or wide free kick attempts, I really do like their odds of scoring from one.
While PSG aren’t especially weak in their defense of set pieces, they struggled against Arsenal in that regard last season. Even with a depleted team, the Gunners created several uncomfortable moments for Luis Enrique’s men, especially in the second leg of the tie. Now, Arsenal’s most physical presences shall be on the pitch on Saturday, in peak condition and brimming with the confidence that comes with being crowned champions of perhaps the most competitive league in club football. The holders of the European title will be in for a battle.
4) PSG Have Exploitable Weaknesses
Don’t hear what I’m not saying. I do not mean to say that PSG aren’t certainly one of the best football teams on the planet, because they absolutely are. But, like every other side out there, they have their weaknesses. I don’t claim to be a tactical mind and there are plenty of content creators out there who know what they’re talking about in this regard far, far more than I do. But even I have notice thatLes Parisiens have their soft spots.
First, there is plenty of joy to be had down their left side if a team is efficient about it. Achraf Hakimi, as one of the best full backs in the world, regularly ventures forward to join attacks if he isn’t creating them himself. What this means is that there is quite regularly a lot of pitch to run into for attackers matched up with the Moroccan. As long as Arsenal can keep Hakimi from wreaking havoc in their own third, their left side should be able to generate some opportunities down that flank, especially if Calafiori and Trossard start.
Additionally, PSG aren’t as organized about getting back into their defensive shape when they lose the ball. They’re certainly no slouches in this regard, but there is a reason why the first leg of their contest with Bayern Munich ended up being one of the most fantastic shootouts we have seen in years. They will leave space for Arsenal to operate in whenever Arteta’s men regain possession.
That will certainly prove useful for the Gunners. Generally, they have produced displays in the Champions League that are easier on the eye than their victories in the English top flight because teams from the continent have not made the pitch as painfully compact as your average Premier League side does. PSG will almost definitely press and harry them when possible but particularly in central areas, Arsenal should expect to have more breathing room. And what we’ve seen from the new champions of England is that when they space to play, they create chances. Additionally, when they’re afforded room to shoot from the top of the box — as I expect to be the case on Saturday — the Gunners have been rather underrated (Zubimendi, Eze, and Trossard in particular have scored some absolute belters this season).
Lastly, I think it’s pretty significant that Gianluigi Donnarumma won’t be in goal for PSG this time around. I won’t claim to know much about Matvei Safonov, but I am willing to bet that the Russian keeper isn’t the match-winning freak of nature that the now City goaltender can be. Point-blank shots probably won’t be miraculously saved this time around, and Safonov also apparently struggles to deal with crosses. That should encourage Arsenal.
This will not be an easy match. On the contrary, it will probably the most difficult of the season and perhaps even the most difficult of many of these Arsenal players’ careers. But they have the talent, the squad, the manager, and the momentum to overcome PSG and finally secure a first Champions League title in the club’s history. As long as they are efficient with the chances, don’t make silly mistakes, and have just enough luck on their side, they can do it. Maybe, just maybe, it’s their time.
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