During his decade-long spell as Manchester City manager, Pep Guardiola made some extraordinary signings. But one decision in the summer of 2022 may well go down as the most costly error of his entire managerial career in England.
It’s easy to forget, given everything that’s followed, just how good Guardiola's transfer record at the Etihad was. When he arrived in 2016, he inherited a squad already packed with world-class talent. David Silva was pulling the strings, Sergio Aguero was scoring for fun, and Yaya Toure was bossing the midfield.
But rather than rest on those foundations, he kept building. The now-departed Bernardo Silva showed up in 2018, Rodri arrived and won a Ballon d’Or five years later, and Erling Haaland broke the all-time Premier League scoring record in his first season.
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Which is why what happened four years ago still stings. Faced with a choice between two midfielders, he backed the wrong horse, with both players having polar-opposite careers since.
Why Guardiola Chose Kalvin Phillips Over Declan Rice
Manchester City midfielder Kalvin Phillips
According to The Telegraph, the decision came down to a straight choice in the summer of 2022: Leeds United's Kalvin Phillips or West Ham’s Declan Rice. Guardiola went with Phillips, convinced that his passing range and scanning abilities made him the better fit for City's system.
And you could see his thinking at the time. 'The Yorkshire Pirlo' had been exceptional in England's run to the Euro 2020 (2021) final, and his ability to read the game and recycle possession had drawn admiring glances from all over Europe. For a manager as detail-obsessed as Guardiola, those qualities would’ve mattered most.
The problem, in hindsight, was that so much of what made Phillips effective was tied to the specific environment Marcelo Bielsa had built around him at Leeds. Take him out of that situation and drop him into the relentless demands of a Guardiola side, and the fit wasn’t right. His game was fundamentally defensive, with little of the forward-carrying ability that City's midfield required.
Rice, by contrast, had everything. The engine, the aggression, the technical quality, and the capacity to influence games in both directions.
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To his credit, Guardiola seemed to clock the mistake fairly quickly. City made a genuine attempt to sign Rice the following summer, only for Arsenal to win the race, securing the West Ham skipper for £100 million.
Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips Have Gone in Very Different Directions
Declan Rice
Declan Rice
The four years since have told the story pretty bluntly. Phillips has managed just 32 appearances in all competitions for Manchester City. He’s been sent out on loan three times in three seasons, first to West Ham and then Ipswich, with both being spells as bad as the other, and now Sheffield United in the Championship.
The Blades are said to be keen on making the arrangement permanent, though. But with his contract not expiring until 2028, a free transfer to Bramall Lane might be out of the question for a player who cost City £42 million.
Rice's story reads very differently. The move to Arsenal transformed him from a very good player into an elite one, and many would say he’s one of the best midfielders in the world and a future England captain. This season, the 27-year-old led Arsenal to their first Premier League title in 22 years, and made it all the way to the Champions League final. He’s exactly the kind of player City would love to have right now, especially with Rodri’s recent fitness issues.
As it happens, City are in the market for midfield reinforcements, with a move for Nottingham Forest's Elliot Anderson said to be in the works. City will likely have to break the British transfer record set by Arsenal for Rice to secure it.