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NBA Finals 2026 preview: 5 X-factors that will determine Spurs-Knicks series, plus final prediction

Whether you are or aren't a fan of the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs, this year's 2026 NBA Finals has a little bit of something for everyone who loves the NBA.

From the bright lights of New York and all the pressure that comes with being the Knicks to Victor Wembanyama becoming the face of the NBA to a rematch of the last championship battle we saw in the league back during the NBA Cup in December, there are so many storylines that encapsulate the 2026 NBA Finals.

No matter how you look at this series, someone will be making history with just four more wins this postseason.

Wembanyama and the Spurs could follow in the Oklahoma City Thunder's footsteps as a young, emerging team to break through and win their first title as one of the NBA's best young cores. On the other side, the Knicks have not been to the NBA Finals since 1999 (also against the Spurs) and have not won it all since 1973.

New York, a city known for its championship sports organizations, has long waited for this moment when they could see the Knicks atop the NBA world. Could that moment finally happen with Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart using their Villanova championship experience to put an end to what has been many dark years in Madison Square Garden?

The Knicks are a proven, experienced team built not only to make the NBA Finals but also to win a title. The Spurs have been built through the draft over the last few years with the intention of one day watching Wembanyama follow in the footsteps of Tim Duncan as a No. 1 pick to lead this franchise to championships.

Now, that dream for the Spurs could be achieved way quicker than many around the NBA imagined.

It is officially time for the 2026 NBA Finals, and here is everything you need to watch for in this series, as well as a final prediction for who will hoist the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy into the air as the 2026 NBA champions.

Who will guard Victor Wembanyama?

San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) dunks over New York Knicks forward OG Anunoby (8) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden.

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

This is a question virtually every Spurs opponent has faced during this year's playoffs. Wembanyama clearly cannot be stopped by anyone, so perhaps the better question revolves around how the Knicks plan on attempting to contain the superstar big man.

These two teams met three times this year, including their first meeting in Las Vegas during the NBA Cup Championship, which was won by the Knicks. In that game, Wembanyama came off the bench since he was working his way back from a calf injury, and he scored 18 points in 24 minutes.

In this game, Mitchell Robinson guarded Wembanyama the most, as Karl-Anthony Towns struggled to defend the Spurs' big man at times other than on the perimeter. In the next meeting between these two teams on New Year's Eve, Wembanyama had 31 points, with OG Anunoby spending a lot of time as his primary defender.

The third and final meeting between these two teams during the regular season saw more of Towns struggling to defend Wembanyama when he didn't settle for jump shots. He had 25 points and 13 rebounds in the Knicks' 114-89 win over San Antonio in March.

Whether or not Robinson will be impactful in the NBA Finals is a major question itself, as he suffered a broken right fifth metacarpal and recently had a procedure done before the series. If he's unable to play or can't remain on the court, the Knicks' best option would appear to be Anunoby guarding Wembanyama, but that would then create a lot of opportunities for Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, and De'Aaron Fox to attack the paint from the perimeter.

If the Knicks go with Towns on Wemby instead, that could wind up being a major problem as well since Towns is prone to fouling aggressive bigs who attack the basket. He has been instrumental to New York's success as a facilitator next to Brunson this postseason, and with Robinson not being 100 percent healthy, this puts even more pressure on Towns not to run into foul trouble.

Early in this NBA Finals series, keep an eye on how the Knicks and head coach Mike Brown look to defend Wembanyama, a decision that could just create an opportunity for another Spurs player to emerge on offense.

Will Knicks be rusty with so much rest?

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) reacts after defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers in game four of the eastern conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Rocket Arena.

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Back-to-back sweeps of the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers mean that the Knicks have not played since May 25. Clearly, the Knicks won't be fatigued in this series, and they've had time to recover from any wear and tear building up.

However, could this extra time off lead to any rust and/or the Knicks losing the momentum they built while beating up on those in the Eastern Conference?

When you are rolling, you want to be playing every day. The Knicks have won 11 straight playoff games, and they have been the hottest team in the NBA for over a month. That is why they are one of two teams remaining and about to begin playing for a title.

Is New York the team to beat now? 🤔

Jalen Brunson and the Knicks have been playing out of their minds this postseason:

🔸12-2 record (both losses by a 1-point)

🔸+19.4 PPG (+271) differential, highest entering the Finals in NBA history

🔸11 straight playoff wins (franchise… pic.twitter.com/xKZ8W4duk0

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) May 26, 2026

Unlike the Spurs, who just took down the defending champions a few days ago and are fully locked into the challenge ahead, we really don't know what to expect from the Knicks in terms of what they've been working on.

Will New York be overthinking things early in this series after not playing for over a week, and will their hot shooting fade? We will have an answer to this question very early in Game 1 on Wednesday night in San Antonio.

Will Spurs be tired with so little rest?

San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) celebrates after defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder in game seven of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Paycom Center.

Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

On the flip side of some concerns about the Knicks having too much time to rest, we have to ask the reverse for the Spurs and whether their limited time to rest and recover before the NBA Finals will be a concern.

After all, taking down the Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals was a very emotional win for this young Spurs team. All season, these two teams had been linked to one another, with the storylines revolving around whether the Spurs' playoff inexperience would catch up to them against the defending champions.

Wembanyama and his young team were fantastic, closing out Oklahoma City, and they've earned the right to be called the favorites entering the 2026 NBA Finals.

However, De'Aaron Fox has been managing a high-ankle sprain that he didn't have much time to receive treatment for, and Harper was dealing with a right adductor injury early in the series against the Thunder. Not to mention, the Spurs, mainly Wembanyama, were clearly fatigued at times against the Thunder with the heavy minutes being played.

Going up against the Knicks, who have had a full week to rest and prepare for this championship series, the Spurs may very well be at a disadvantage due to fatigue. We simply do not know which side — rest or no rest — will have the advantage until the ball is tipped and these teams begin their fight for a championship.

Which team will control the pace of play?

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) drives to the basket against San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper (2) during the second quarter at Madison Square Garden.

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

It seems like this is a main talking point in every big playoff series, and the pace of play will once again be a topic of discussion in the 2026 NBA Finals since these two teams are opposites.

Whereas the Knicks ranked 27th in pace this season and 14th in fast-break scoring, the Spurs ranked 13th in pace and 10th in fast-break scoring.

In their final two wins over the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, San Antonio was able to get out to quick leads and sustain runs by pushing the pace in transition, scoring 18 fast-break points in Game 6 at home and then 19 fast-break points in Game 7 on the road.

When it comes to their transition defense, both teams ranked inside the top six this season.

If the Spurs can find success defensively and get out in transition with Fox, Harper, and Castle pushing the tempo at times, they will gain an advantage against a stout Knicks defense that relies on their length and athleticism on the perimeter with OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges.

Conversely, if the Knicks can play fast and capitalize off the Spurs' turnovers throughout the course of the first two road games, they will hold a key advantage in the NBA Finals. After all, turnovers hurt San Antonio in their series against Oklahoma City.

Whoever can control the pace of play and get the other out of rhythm early will hold the keys to this series.

Can Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges continue hot shooting?

Knicks guard Mikal Bridges (25) reacts with Josh Hart

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, Anunoby and Hart combined to score 27.8 percent of the Knicks' total points.

Although Bridges has not been at his best from 3-point range throughout the playoffs, he really found his stride attacking the Cavs' defense off the dribble and getting to his spots both in the mid-range area and in the paint. Before a Game 4 shooting clunker, the veteran wing shot 50 percent or better in 10 straight games. His driving abilities as a secondary playmaker next to Brunson will be essential for the Knicks to possibly win the NBA Finals.

As for Hart, he shot 9-of-26 (34.6 percent) from 3-point range against Cleveland, hitting five triples in the team's Game 2 win during the Eastern Conference Finals after an ugly Game 1. Not only will he need to continue being a do-it-all guy and primary rebounder for the Knicks, but Hart's 3-and-D tendencies will be vital as well.

After having over a week off to watch the action in the West, will Bridges and Hart still be hot entering the NBA Finals against San Antonio? In order to have any chance of beating the Spurs, these two will need to knock down timely shots throughout the series.

Why Knicks can win or could lose NBA Finals

A detailed view of the 2026 Eastern Conference trophy after the New York Knicks defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers in game four of the eastern conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Rocket Arena.

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Defense wins championships, and Mike Brown's team has looked elite on that end of the court throughout the playoffs.

Although their competition has not been the best it could be, the Knicks are allowing the fewest points per game to their opponents through 14 playoff games (100.6 OPPG), and they rank first among all playoff teams in defensive rating.

With the uncertainty of their 3-point shooting, as well as Karl-Anthony Towns' potential offensive impact being limited by the effort he will need to give defensively against Wembanyama, the key to the Knicks winning this series is solely on the defensive end of the court. If they can contain Wemby and force the Spurs to be a jump-shooting team, the title will be theirs to claim.

However, the offensive lapses at times will be a concern at times for New York against San Antonio. Aside from Wembanyama commanding the paint and keeping the Knicks out of there, this young Spurs team has really built an image for being pesty, feisty perimeter defenders.

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Brunson will have his hands full, and he won't be able to do everything for the Knicks like he has done in the past. This is especially true if the Spurs plan to double him off of ball screens at certain times, knowing they have Wemby underneath as their anchor.

A lot of pressure will fall on Anunoby, Bridges, and Hart to knock down shots.

Speaking of Brunson, he has full confidence in his group that they will be able to adapt as this series progresses and find success by learning from what the Spurs throw at them.

“I think we're a focused group. I think we're a hard-working group. I feel like we've been doubted a lot,” Brunson said at media day on Tuesday. “I think our mentality is in the right place at the right time. We just got to stay focused and keep learning. Even today, we can't be satisfied because we're here. We have to keep learning.”

Adaptiveness and the ability to punch back on offense when the Spurs go on their little spurts with Wemby and their other athletes will tell the tale of the Knicks' success or demise in this series.

Why Spurs can win or could lose NBA Finals

A view of the midcourt logo during San Antonio Spurs practice on Media Day for the 2026 NBA Finals at Frost Bank Center.

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

How can you watch what Wembanyama has done throughout these playoffs and not say he is the best player in the NBA right now?

At just 22 years old, Wemby has completely turned the league upside down and will now have teams making moves in the offseason to adapt to him and what this Spurs team will be for many years to come. Not to mention, he joined Kobe Bryant (2001) and LeBron James (2007) as the only players in league history to lead their team in scoring entering the Finals at 22 or younger.

KOBE. LEBRON. WEMBY.

Victor Wembanyama joins Kobe Bryant in 2001 and LeBron James in 2007 as the only players this century to lead their team in scoring entering the Finals at 22 or younger 🤯 pic.twitter.com/pPQsMZ0bmY

— NBA (@NBA) June 3, 2026

Every time he steps foot on the court, the young French star makes history, and we should expect nothing less in the NBA Finals.

Even after he let his emotions out following the Spurs' Game 7 victory and showed how much that win meant to him, Wemby kept four words on repeat the entire night, and that continued on Tuesday at media day:

“The job isn't done.”

If the Spurs win it all, obviously, Wembanyama will be the No. 1 reason why. There isn't one player on the Knicks' roster who has the capability to guard him, and even if they look to double him, Wembanyama has proven to be a skilled playmaker for his teammates. It would almost be a death sentence for the Knicks to double-team Wemby because of how dynamic the cutters and slashers around him are.

The Knicks are not known for being as strong defensively, especially in the paint, as the Thunder. Already going through the defending champions, the Spurs have everything they need to thrive on offense in this series and win it all.

Looking at the other end of things, turnovers could wind up being the Achilles' heel for San Antonio.

Against the Thunder, the Spurs averaged 16 turnovers per game over the course of the series and 17 turnovers per game in their three losses. The Spurs will need to take care of the basketball against the Knicks, a team that will look to slow the tempo down and attack their opponents by getting to the free-throw line late in the game.

This all goes back to controlling the pace of play and keeping their emotions in check. You never know how a young team will react to certain fouls late in games or how they will respond to a veteran team like the Knicks going on runs to try to get themselves back in games, which is what happened during the NBA Cup Championship.

Who will win 2026 NBA Finals?

San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) shoots the ball over New York Knicks guard Jordan Clarkson (00) during the Emirates NBA Cup Final at T-Mobile Arena.

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

There is no denying the history New York has already made in the postseason. Before the Knicks won their 11th straight playoff game in Game 4 against the Cavaliers, only four other teams in NBA history had ever achieved such a feat: The 1989 Los Angeles Lakers, the 1999 San Antonio Spurs, the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers, and the 2017 Golden State Warriors.

Of those four teams, the only ones that didn't hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy into the air were the '89 Lakers, who were swept by the Detroit Pistons after entering the 1989 NBA Finals with a perfect 11-0 record.

Although history and experience may be on New York's side, all of the positives and advantages San Antonio has entering this series stand out. I simply trust the Spurs a lot more than I do the Knicks because of the levels of determination, pride, and resilience they showed against the Thunder.

Wembanyama is going to go off in this series with a championship on the line, and it would not be shocking if he went out and put together a performance similar to what we saw from Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2021 NBA Finals when he averaged 35.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in six games to lead the Milwaukee Bucks to a title.

The Spurs star is a man on a mission right now, and the Knicks will have no solution to stop him, especially with Mitchell Robinson not being 100 percent and Towns likely to get in foul trouble if Wemby continuously looks to attack the paint.

Even if the Knicks look to trap Wemby in the post and push him out to the perimeter, the Spurs' ability to get downhill with their three-headed monster in the backcourt and their secondary perimeter production from Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie is enough for me to take them as my Finals pick.

Back in December, I was one of the few who stood my ground and claimed that the Spurs would be the biggest threats to the Thunder, stating that this team had serious championship potential.

The Thunder are now 26-5 this season.

Three of those losses are to the Spurs.

SGA’s 22 points today are his fewest of the season.

Keep sleeping on San Antonio if you want, but this team is firmly in the championship conversation this season. https://t.co/ohzS9Ms1nn

— Brett Siegel (@BrettSiegelNBA) December 25, 2025

Again, at the end of the season, I didn't see a problem with their “lack of playoff experience” mattering one bit. I will admit, I still went with the defending champions because that is what my gut was saying, and at full strength, I still don't believe anyone would take down the Thunder.

But my mind and what I actually watched from the Spurs all year made me believe that if there was one team to beat the Thunder this season and make the NBA Finals in the West, it was Wemby's squad.

The Knicks and Spurs will split the first two games of the 2026 NBA Finals in San Antonio before again splitting Games 3 and 4 in Madison Square Garden. From there, with the series tied at 2-2, Wembanyama will put together a 30-point double-double in Game 5 at home to put the Spurs up 3-2 in the series.

And then in Game 6, the Spurs will put an end to the season.

For his career, Wembanyama has averaged 27.0 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game in Madison Square Garden. This kid lives for the bright lights and the biggest moments, which is why he will deliver the Spurs their sixth championship in Game 6 in New York City en route to becoming the second-youngest player to ever win the Finals MVP award, behind only Magic Johnson (20 years old, 1980).

PREDICTION: Give me the Spurs in six games.

Whether you are or aren't a fan of the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs, this year's 2026 NBA Finals has a little bit of something for everyone who loves the NBA. From the bright lights of New York and all the pressure that comes with being the Knicks to Victor Wembanyama becoming the face of the NBA to a rematch of the last championship battle we saw in the league back during the NBA Cup in December, there are so many storylines that encapsulate the 2026 NBA Finals.

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