The New England Patriots spent all of last season defying modest expectations to make a Super Bowl run. Despite all that success, they'll still enter the 2026 season needing to prove pessimistic projections wrong.
ESPN revealed its initial Football Power Index ratings for the 2026 season. The metric grades each team by measuring its expected scoring margin against a league-average opponent on a neutral field.
Even after going 14-3 and winning an AFC championship, the Patriots rank No. 14 in FPI at +1.4. Seth Walder noted that they're the first team to ever start outside the top 10 after making the Super Bowl since ESPN introduced FPI in 2015.
The Patriots trail five teams that missed the playoffs last season, including the 7-9-1 Dallas Cowboys (No. 11) and 6-11 Cincinnati Bengals (No. 12). They're also behind two teams they beat en route to the Super Bowl (Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans).
It probably shouldn't surprise anyone to see Walder explain the unfavorable placement by citing New England's 2025 schedule.
"On the surface, the Patriots' numbers last season indicate a team with strong potential for sustained success. They led the league in EPA per play on offense and were 10th on defense," Walder wrote. "But those numbers came against the league's easiest strength of schedule. The Patriots' postseason schedule was also fortuitous, as they faced the Chargers, Texans and Bo Nix-less Broncos."
Walder called the Patriots a "long-shot contender" in 2026, noting the team's 6.7 percent probability of returning to the Super Bowl and 2.7 percent chance of capturing the Lombardi Trophy. The Bengals (4.0%), Texans (3.2%) and Jacksonville Jaguars (2.9%) all have better odds of winning the Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, FPI heavily favors the Buffalo Bills to reclaim the AFC East crown. They have a 67.6 percent chance of winning the division, compared to New England's 30.6 percent.
The Los Angeles Rams (5.6) handily top the Bills (4.0) for the top FPI spot after acquiring Myles Garrett. The Patriots aren't the only Super Bowl LX participant who may feel slighted, as the Seattle Seahawks also trail the Baltimore Ravens in fourth.
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