Is this the low point for the Mahomes-era Chiefs?
Kansas City enters 2026 ranked ninth in the FPI, its worst preseason ranking since 2018 -- the year Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback. That season, the Chiefs opened as the FPI’s 14th-ranked team but went on to a 12-4 record and reached the AFC Championship Game, the first of seven straight AFC title games for Kansas City.
It’s not shocking to see this version of the Chiefs ranked where it is even though we now know how good Mahomes is because:
The offense’s struggles (relative to its previous highs) over the past couple of seasons.
They lost both starting cornerbacks to the Rams.
Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee suffered last December.
How does the model handle that last nugget? It technically has Mahomes as active for the team’s Week 1 “Monday Night Football” game against the Broncos right now. But the team strength forecast is driven by the win total betting market, which is surely considering some Mahomes uncertainty. Therefore, the model is implicitly baking in an elevated chance of Mahomes sitting out some time.