For the past few days, Knicks and Spurs fans have had to dream up hypotheticals and play out the most important series of the season in their heads. But tonight, we finally get to see the teams take the court and throw all of that out the window. But before they do, with the NBA Finals just hours away, let’s take a final look at who the experts are picking to win the title.
On ESPN.com, 10 of the 13 writers picked the Spurs to win. Bobby Marks picked them to win in five games, and everybody else who had the Spurs winning picked them to do so in six or seven games. Ramona Shelburne, Justin Tinsley, and Ohm Youngmisuk were the three who picked the Knicks to come out on top, predicting the Knicks to win in seven games, six games, and seven games, respectively.
Over on Sports Illustrated, three of their five writers picked the Spurs. Chris Mannix picked the Spurs to win in six games, “maybe five,” citing the Spurs’ backcourt defense and Victor Wembanyama’s dominance. Meanwhile, Blake Silverman and Dan Lyons picked the Western Conference representatives in six games due to Mitchell Robinson’s injury concern and their belief that Wembanyama will ultimately be the best player in the series.
The Athletic bucked some of the aforementioned trend, though, with the most popular outcome being Knicks in six. Of their 26 votes, said result got 10 votes, with Spurs in seven and Spurs in six getting five votes each, and Knicks in seven getting three votes.
Lorenzo Reyes of USA Today Sports picked the Knicks in seven games largely due to the Knicks’ experience and additional rest advantage, while Prince J. Grimes picked the Spurs in seven games, raising questions surrounding whether the Knicks really are a dominant team, or whether the strength of their Eastern Conference opponents — or lack thereof — played a role in their road to the Finals.
As you can see, while the experts are slightly leaning towards the Spurs, there really isn’t a foregone conclusion. If anything, the only consensus is that the series should be close and could easily go the full seven games. The books, on the other hand, seem to disagree. The Spurs came out as pretty heavy favorites after they advanced to the Finals and currently sit at -188 odds over on FanDuel, while the Knicks sit at +158, which equates to about a 38.76% chance.
While Knicks fans may feel like their team is getting slighted, it may play to the Knicks’ advantage. Every time the Knicks have been eliminated in the postseason during the Jalen Brunson era, it has been to a lower seed. Not that the team needs any extra motivation, but seeing and/or hearing about them being counted out may further feed into their focus on playing with a level of desperation.