The NBA Finals kick off tonight, with some potentially historic implications riding on this series. The 1999 NBA Finals rematch between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs will crown an eighth different NBA Champion in as many years, showing that parity is defining the modern era of NBA Basketball.
The Knicks absolutely scorched the Eastern Conference on their way to the NBA Finals, losing only two games up to this point. New York went through the Atlanta Hawks in six games, and then swept the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers.
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The Spurs took some punches throughout the playoffs, going a hard six games against the Minnesota Timberwolves and then an extremely tough seven games against the last NBA Champion, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The two final teams have had very different paths, but now they face each other on their quests for an NBA title. Here are three deciding factors for the series.
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1. How the Knicks attack Victor Wembanyama
Mar 1, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward OG Anunoby (8) watches his shot against San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) during the second quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
The Knicks went 2-1 against the Spurs this season. The matchups were a little different, since Victor Wembanyama was under a minute restriction in one game, and the last time they played was in March, when the Knicks blew out the Spurs at Madison Square Garden.
In the matchups against the Spurs, the Knicks would primarily use Karl Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby as primary defenders on Wembanyama.
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The Knicks will likely have to switch those two in action, as they start KAT on Wemby and Anunoby on Stephon Castle, who handles the ball a lot and runs the high-screen-and-roll with Wemby.
Mitchell Robinson will be extremely important in this series, especially on the boards and in keeping Wemby off the offensive glass, where he crushed Oklahoma City.
If the Knicks are to pull off the upset, they’re going to have to make Wemby a jump shooter and ideally use Karl Anthony Towns to stretch Wemby to the perimeter, either creating open looks at the rim or open threes.
2. Jalen Brunson’s performance against the defensive guards of San Antonio
Dec 16, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) dribbles the ball against San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) during the Emirates NBA Cup Final at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Jalen Brunson has played against frankly bad defensive guards throughout this playoff run. That changes tonight, as Brunson will have Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Devin Vassell all over his grill for 48 minutes.
Brunson has shown he can score on anyone, and in the games vs the Spurs this season, has averaged 26 points per game, but has been somewhat inefficient, shooting roughly 42% from the field.
The other potential issue outside of the pesky defensive guards is the giant 7’5 center waiting by the rim on every drive. Jalen Brunson will have to thrive as a playmaker if the Spurs crowd him in the lane.
3. Which teams’ role players shoot the ball better
Dec 31, 2025; San Antonio, Texas, USA; New York Knicks guard Miles McBride (2) shoots in front of San Antonio Spurs forward Julian Champagnie (30) in the second half at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images
The Spurs had games against Oklahoma City when they shot the ball extremely well from outside. Guys like Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie were consistent as shooters, and the Spurs got some great shooting games from Dylan Harper as well to close the series.
The Knicks shooting feels more reliable than the Thunder’s did, which is why the most interesting wrinkle of this series is how San Antonio guards Jalen Brunson.
The Knicks as a team are shooting 40% from three in this postseason, which leads the NBA, while the Spurs have shot 36.5% from three, which doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but could be a huge swing in each of these games.
The Knicks should have the shooting advantage, but the Spurs have had their fair share of games where they get hot from outside.
Final Prediction
May 30, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) celebrates with guard De’aaron Fox (4) after defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder in game seven of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Like the Western Conference Finals, this feels like a long series. While the Knicks do have the slightly better supporting cast, history shows that the best player in the series usually wins, and Victor Wembanyama is the best player on Planet Earth at the moment.
Wemby will create havoc defensively for the Knicks in the paint, and New York will have one stinker game where the threes don’t fall, and the Spurs are able to get out in transition and go on big runs.
Victor Wembanyama solidifies his GOAT trajectory with this series, wins Finals MVP after averaging 28 points and 14 rebounds, and the Spurs start what they hope to be a dynasty.