Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under 9.5 (Over +115, Under -140)
I may be ready to get on the Cowboys bandwagon. The offense ranked No. 2 in the NFL last year, but the defense ranked dead last in points allowed per contest. I do think the defense is improved with the additions of Caleb Downs, Malachi Lawrence, Dee Winters, Cobie Durant and Rashan Gary. Seriously, how did NFL general managers allow a guy like Downs to fall out of the top 10? He was the first true defensive back to finish top 10 in Heisman voting since 2011, and was the first defensive back since Eric Berry to be named a unanimous All-American twice.
With the NFC East seemingly in flux, the Cowboys getting to double-digit wins looks enticing. Jalen Hurts is at a crossroads, having lost A.J. Brown; the Commanders are back to being a bottom-feeder without Jayden Daniels; and the Giants are a major question mark. I like the Cowboys getting to 10-7 at plus money.
Verdict: Over 9.5
Washington Commanders: Over/Under 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
The Washington Commanders getting back to the NFC Championship game is not as simple as keeping Jayden Daniels healthy. Don’t overlook the fact that Washington had what was statistically the worst defense in the NFL last season, with 384.0 yards of total offense surrendered per game. Adam Peters brought in Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson to rush the passer and drafted linebacker Sonny Styles in the first round, but I’m concerned about this secondary, and wonder if it can keep up with all of the weapons the NFC East has to offer. The Commanders added just Amik Robertson and Nick Cross to help what was a bottom-five pass defense.
I think the Commanders could start 0-4 this season. They play at the Eagles, at the Cowboys, vs. the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and then get Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts in London. The Giants come in Week 5, with the 49ers on the road on “Monday Night Football” in Week 6 before the bye in Week 7. That is not an easy start. I’ll take the Under at plus money, as Washington has hit the Under on its preseason win total in four out of the last five seasons. We’ll see if Daniels can stay healthy.
Verdict: Under 7.5