If you’ve followed Steelers Depot for a reasonable amount of time, you know about the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt stat (ANY/A), which is an all-important passing stat. A positive differential (offense – defense) has occurred for all but one Super Bowl Winner since 2000.
Using inspiration from this stat and its value, I wanted to dive into a formula to measure ANY/A in the run game and see what kind of correlation it might have with Super Bowl winners.
The original passing ANY/A formula is as follows: (pass yards – sack yards + (20 * pass touchdowns) – (45 * interceptions)) / (pass attempts + sacks).
Here’s a similar rushing formula I compiled: (rush yards – lost rush yards + (20 * rush touchdowns) – (45 * fumbles)) / (rush attempts + lost yard attempts).
Yards, touchdowns, and attempts were obvious adjustments, while lost rush yards replace sack yards (negative yards), and rushing fumbles replace interceptions (turnover factor).
With the nitty-gritty out of the way, here is a scatter plot of rushing ANY/A on offense (OANY/A) and defense (DANY/A):
Apologies for this not being the cleanest visual, but a couple of Super Bowl winners greatly exceeded their peers (breaking the chart) on both sides of the ball. Particularly, the 2000 Ravens defense.
In that regular season, they allowed just 970 rushing yards, with the next best coming in at 1,267. They also led the 26-year timeframe in lost rush yards (good for defenses) with 157, ranked second in fewest rush TDs allowed (five), and first with 22 fumbles against. Dominant.
This led to an elite -0.2 rushing ANY/A for the 2000 Ravens defense, with the next-best coming in at 2.6. Substantial gap, and a defense that we simply haven’t seen replicated in these terms this century.
Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl seasons featured stronger defensive numbers in the run game. In the 2005 regular season, the Steelers ranked third on that side of the ball with a 2.7 rushing ANY/A. 1,376 rushing yards allowed (sixth), 89 lost rushing yards (sixth), ten rushing TDs allowed (T-14th), nine rushing fumbles against (T-seventh).
The 2008 Steelers defense was also above the mean of Super Bowl winners on defense, with a 3.2 rushing ANY/A that ranked eighth. 1,284 rush yards allowed (third), 51 lost yards (last), seven rush TDs (T-sixth), and three fumbles (T-second least).
Both of Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl seasons were below average on offense. The better of the two was the 2005 rushing offense, with a 3.8 rush ANY/A that ranked 17th (out of 26). 2,223 rushing yards (second), 114 lost yards (23rd), 21 rush TDs (T-second), ten fumbles (23rd), and the second-most attempts of the group with 549.
Close behind were the 2008 Steelers offense, with a 3.7 rush ANY/A that ranked 20th. 1,690 rushing yards (19th), 107 lost yards (18th), 16 rush TDs (T-11th), and four fumbles (T-sixth). In comparison, the best regular season rushing offense was the 2024 Eagles at a 5.2 rushing ANY/A. 3,048 rush yards (first), 113 lost yards (22nd), 29 TDs (first), six fumbles (T-12th), and a whopping 621 attempts (first).
That’s 825 more rushing yards, eight more rush TDs, on 72 more attempts, than the 2005 Steelers, who ranked second in all of those categories. Philadelphia’s 2024 run game was on another level than any other offense in the span.
Next, I wanted to go to a rushing differential table to see how the teams and the rushing ANY/A stat fared in terms of differential (offense – defense). Here are the results:
In totality, we see that the rushing ANY/A stat is not here to replace the great passing ANY/A stat. Compared to just one Super Bowl winner since 2000 having a negative passing ANY/A differential, eight teams had a negative rushing ANY/A differential. There is a more recent positive trend for the new rushing ANY/A stat, though, with just one team having a negative differential since 2012 (2019 Chiefs).
In other words, 13 of the last 14 Super Bowl winners had a positive regular season rushing ANY/A. Prior to that, 7 of 12 teams had a negative differential. So, rushing ANY/A has had an extremely strong correlation to winning the Super Bowl for nearly 15 years.
Every Super Bowl winner had a positive differential in either rushing or passing ANY/A. 17 of 26 had positive differentials in both, including the top ten on the table, and both Steelers teams.
Given all the info learned from the rushing ANY/A stat, it will be fascinating to track moving forward. Given that passing production outweighs rushing for the vast majority of teams, I wasn’t expecting rushing ANY/A to be stronger than passing ANY/A. But it’s a solid new metric with a nice track record over the last 14 years to pair with the passing ANY/A stat that still reigns supreme.
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