Optimism is around the NFL this time of year. Every season, there are teams that emerge from the shadows to do some real damage. Let’s take an early look at what we can expect the AFC playoff picture to look like. Perhaps there will be a surprise.
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AFC East – New England Patriots
Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass during the first quarter against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
The schedule is easy, and New England just added AJ Brown to an already improving nucleus. Another season of improvements from Maye will go a long way. New England will get past the relationship drama of Mike Vrabel and also rely on a strong defense.
AFC North – Cincinnati Bengals
A healthy Joe Burrow is critical here. Of course, his receiving weapons of JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins also help, but the emergence of Chase Brown creates a well-balanced offense. The Bengals don’t need much from their defense, but the acquisition of Dexter Lawrence also helps here.
AFC South – Houston Texans
NFL Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud after the game against the New England Patriots in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
While there could be a lot of variability here, things often go back to the Texans. CJ Stroud is the best quarterback in the division, and how can you not like their defense? The addition of David Montgomery should also push the offense forward, along with a return to health for Nico Collins.
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AFC West – Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is an underappreciated quarterback, and Omarion Hampton could be dangerous in his second year. Staying healthy here is critical, and that will determine the success of this prediction. The improvements to the offensive line are certainly a step in the right direction.
Wild Cards – Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs
Sep 14, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) practices before the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
It’s all about Josh Allen here. While Allen is going to take the Bills as far as they can go, he also needs help from a wide receiving corps that has left something to be desired. Will Allen also be able to continue running at the level we are accustomed to.
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After not making the playoffs last season, the Ravens switched coaches. They should be a bump from that, but the natural progression of a healthy Lamar Jackson should be enough to get Baltimore back in the playoffs. Having Derrick Henry doesn’t hurt either.
Let’s see how Patrick Mahomes rehab from his ACL injury and his return really go. Adding Kenneth Walker should pay massive dividends for the offense as the Chiefs look to take some of the pressure off Mahomes. However, it’s also possible we’ve seen the best of Kansas City for this stretch.
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