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Young superstars like Victor Wembanyama rarely dominate and win in first taste of NBA finals.
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Published Jun 06, 2026 • Last updated 4 minutes ago • 4 minute read
Wemby
Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs shoots the ball against Karl-Anthony Towns #32 and OG Anunoby #8 of the New York Knicks during the third quarter in Game Two of the 2026 NBA Finals at Frost Bank Center on June 05, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. Photo by Eric Gay /Getty Images
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Having survived a furious comeback Friday night, the New York Knicks are shockingly on the verge of winning the NBA title for the first time since 1973.
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Sure, they still have to win two more games out of a possible five (three would be in New York, where the crowd will likely be the loudest “rich person” sporting gathering we’ve ever heard, far more electric than if the Toronto Maple Leafs ever actually made a Stanley Cup Final (New Yorkers aren’t afraid to let loose, unlike well-heeled Torontonians who usually sit on their hands and look at you sideways if you try to start a ‘Go Leafs Go’ chant).
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While the Spurs could still rally and take 4-of-6, few outside of Texas realistically believe that’s possible.
But is what has happened through two games of the NBA Finals really all that shocking, or should we have seen this coming?
Victor Wembanyama might be unlike anything we’ve ever seen, but he’s still a very young human being (Wembanyama turned 22 in January) and historically, it’s exceedingly rare for an NBA player, even a potential all-time great, to win it all in his first (or second even) taste of the post-season. Wembanyama was dismal in San Antonio’s Game 1 home loss (6-for-21 from the field, a step slow most of the night) and while pretty dominant for stretches Friday, crumbled down the stretch with two potential opportunities to even up the series. Wembanyama tried to start a fast break after grabbing a rebound in the dying seconds, but threw it off the back of Stephon Castle who wasn’t looking. Then, gifted another chance after Jalen Brunson split free throws, he couldn’t get a jump shot to fall which would have forced overtime.
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What history says
Wembanyama wouldn’t be the first barely out of his teens superstar to not get it done early on in his career.
Shaquille O’Neal, perhaps the most dominant big men in NBA history and on the short list of rookies to immediately become an all-star, got swept by Indiana in the first round of his playoff debut as a 21-year-old a year later (with 22-year-old all-star Penny Hardaway alongside him). O’Neal then did manage to take the Magic all the way to the Finals (including a shocking upset of a rusty Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls), but got swept and outplayed decisively by the Houston Rockets and Hakeem Olajuwon.
It took five more years until O’Neal would become a champion at 27.
His long-time teammate and fellow legend Kobe Bryant was memorably awful for much of his first two trips to the playoffs (his airball to finish a series loss against Utah was a career lowlight) before turning it around the third year and then dominating in the Lakers’ three-peat and beyond.
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LeBron James is perhaps the closest comparable to Wembanyama. Both were seen as the next ones for years before even getting to the NBA. Each immediately became a face of the league. They both didn’t make the playoffs until Year 3, and at age 22, both led their teams to the NBA Finals (though James did it nearly single-handedly (ironically while coached by current Knicks coach Mike Brown). James had won a round in his playoff debut and lost in seven to the great Detroit Pistons of that era before taking Cleveland all the way to a meeting with the Spurs. There, the Cavs got swept and James struggled, shooting only 35% from the floor with nearly as many turnovers as assists.
This is what players of this caliber usually do at this point of their careers. Sure, Magic Johnson (a champion and NBA Finals MVP as a 20-year-old rookie) and his rival Larry Bird (a champion and dominant performer a year later) did it, but they are the exceptions, not the rule.
Wembanyama probably won’t have to wait as long as James, O’Neal and Bryant did to win it all and we see this series as just an early stumbling block, much like those players once faced.
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Stats and figures
New York has now won 13 straight playoff games, second only to the 2017 Golden State Warriors superteam’s 15 in a row. Golden State went 16-1 that year and New York is now 14-2. Jordan’s Bulls twice went 15-2, O’Neal and Bryant went 15-1 in 2001.
The Knicks had only won 24 playoff games combined over the previous 12 seasons.
New York is now just the third team to win the first two games of a Finals on the road (1993 Bulls, 1995 Rockets during the sweep of the Magic).
Knicks big man Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 12.5 rebounds per game, the third-most by any player in the Finals (only Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo have averaged more) since 2016.
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