The New York Jets had three selections in the 2026 NFL Draft's first-round thanks to a series of trades, one with the Indianapolis Colts and another with the San Francisco 49ers.
But with all three of those picks, the Jets didn't select a single quarterback. They're planning for their QB of the future to come from the 2027 NFL Draft. That class is expected to be very strong, and the Jets have a chance to own the No. 1 overall pick.
However, while the Jets surely have a decent chance at the No. 1 pick, ESPN's Seth Walder shared a projection for their No. 1 pick odds that does have a 17.1% figure for a slightly concerning reason.
Jets have 17.1% chance to earn No. 1 pick in 2027 NFL Draft
"But the Dolphins face the third-hardest schedule, and the Jets face the sixth easiest," Walder writes. "So Miami has a 20.1% chance to earn the No. 1 pick, while the Jets are at 17.1%."
This 17.1% mark is the second-best odds of any team to land the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, as the Jets look to land their quarterback of the future.
But, with the Dolphins receiving a 20..1% projection, 3.0% greater than the Jets, there is a chance that New York misses out on that top pick and the chance to take the best QB from the 2027 class.
Not only that, but with the Cleveland Browns (12.8%) and the Arizona Cardinals (15.3%) not far behind the Jets, the odds that they land the No. 1 overall pick and select in front of multiple other QB-needy teams are not that great.
And with this schedule, which Walder notes is the sixth easiest of the entire NFL, it's entirely possible for Geno Smith and the Jets new-look offense and defense to play well enough to drop the Jets pick down the board a bit.
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If the Jets wind up picking fourth after the three aforementioned teams, they might miss out on their quarterback of the future. They do have three 2027 first-round picks, so they could make a huge trade-up to get their preferred QB.
But if the Dolphins, Browns, or Cardinals fall in love with a QB prospect, they aren't going to trade down with the Jets and miss out on landing one of these star QBs.
There is reason for Jets fans to have confidence in their team being bad enough to land that No. 1 overall pick, as ESPN gives that scenario a 17.1% chance of happening, second best in the NFL.
However, it's not a guarantee, and there is a path for the easy schedule and the revamped roster to pose a serious issue for the Jets in search of the No. 1 pick in 2027.
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