Nick Herbig just received a $100 million extension as a backup to both T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. If it’s three dogs, two bones at outside linebacker, how can the Pittsburgh Steelers make that a worthwhile investment?
The future is a major consideration, but certainly, they have a plan for the present that doesn’t let millions of dollars go to waste as the world’s most expensive benchwarmer.
Today, I want to look at the math behind three outside linebackers, how the work was divided in last year’s defense, and how often the “Bronco Package” with three OLBs on the field together was actually used last season.
First, let’s establish the baseline for how often each player was used when all three were healthy and available for at least the majority of a game’s snaps. That tosses out any game in which Watt, Highsmith, or Herbig either did not play or exited very early.
There were eight such games where all three were available. Here’s how the snaps broke down between Watt/Highsmith/Herbig (in that order) for each of those games.
– 49/47/50 (Wk. 6)
– 62/53/29 (Wk. 7)
– 59/47/24 (Wk. 8)
– 61/48/40 (Wk. 9)
– 60/53/31 (Wk. 10)
– 61/54/29 (Wk. 13)
– 70/62/27 (Wk. 14)
– 43/44/13 (Wk. 18)
In total, that was 465 snaps for Watt, 408 for Highsmith, and 243 for Herbig. Relative to each other, Watt played 41.6 percent of the snaps, Highsmith 36.5, and Herbig 21.8.
I can assure you, they didn’t just give Herbig a nearly $20 million signing bonus to have him play barely more than a fifth of the snaps when healthy. But whose snaps should he cut into? Highsmith was arguably the Steelers’ best defensive player last year. And Watt is being paid $41 million per season with every possibility of a bounce-back year in 2026.
The best argument for a more even split of the snaps is that all three players were only healthy for eight of the 17 games. Perhaps evening things out would keep all three healthy for at least four or five extra games, as long as T.J. Watt doesn’t get anywhere near a dry needle again.
The x-factor in this conversation is how much the Steelers plan on using their “Bronco” 3-OLB package. Last year, Watt, Highsmith, and Herbig lined up on the field together just 31 times. Three of those 31 were no-plays due to pre-snap penalties. It all works out to roughly 2.5 percent of the total plays in those eight games.
Context is needed on why it was so seldom used. It’s hard to implement the package when Alex Highsmith spent much of training camp healing from a groin injury. And even when he came back, he exited again with a high-ankle sprain shortly thereafter. Nick Herbig also missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury. And right when they were all three available and hitting their stride late in the season, Watt suffered a lung injury.
It’s hard to get in a rhythm with the 3-OLB package when one or more of the key players are almost always injured.
If they all stay healthy during the install portion of training camp, that 2.5 percent could easily double or triple. Already, we are hearing chatter of “a lot more movement” along the defensive front from new DC Patrick Graham. That movement creates more opportunities to get Watt, Highsmith, and Herbig on the field together outside the traditional structure of a 3-4 defense with two edge rushers.
It’s impossible to predict injuries, so for the sake of this exercise, we will assume 17 games for all three players. Under last year’s split, that would mean 988 snaps for Watt, 867 for Highsmith, and 516 for Herbig.
If there are 100 more snaps of the 3-OLB package to go around, that alone would boost Herbig’s snaps to be more in line with the others. It’s also safe to assume Watt isn’t going to play a career high in snaps with 988. Shave some off of his (soon) 32-year-old body, and give those to Herbig.
With those two simple actions, here’s where the snap share could sit: Watt gets 900 (36.4 percent), Highsmith 867 (35.1 percent), and Herbig 704 (28.5).
This, of course, ignores Jack Sawyer, who will get his share of snaps as well. But that’s why I specifically focused on Watt, Highsmith, and Herbig relative to each other, with percentages adding up to a perfect 100 percent.
Injuries will happen, and plans will change, but there is a way to get all three starter-level snaps without an expensive, talented player wasting away on the bench.
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