The Denver Broncos went 14-3 a season ago and likely would’ve made the Super Bowl if QB Bo Nix didn’t break his ankle.
In the AFC Championship Game, the Broncos defense played out of its mind. Unfortunately, with Jarrett Stidham under center for Nix, the offense was terrible. Denver lost to New England 10-7 and the Patriots went on to face the Seahawks.
Considering the Broncos basically ran it back this offseason, plus added electric wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, one would think they’d be among the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in 2026.
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That’s not the case according to ESPN’s “Football Power Index” or FPI. Right now, it says the Broncos have the 15th best Super Bowl odds and only a 53.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. That’s ninth in the AFC, while only seven teams from each conference make the dance.
ESPN’s Seth Walder realized these rankings were a little jarring and attempted to explain.
“Denver is coming off a very impressive season, but the FPI believes regression is coming,” Walder wrote. “One major red flag was the Broncos’ 12-3 record (including playoffs) in one-score games last season — a rate that is unlikely to continue.”
In other words, the Broncos are being punished for winning so many tight games in 2025. The formula doesn’t feel that’s repeatable. Plus, betting is somehow factored into this as well.
“(One-score games is) not something the FPI explicitly considers, but it is the sort of thing the betting market might, which in turn affects the FPI,” Walder wrote.
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How the general public wagers on the Broncos shouldn’t affect their rankings, at least not if common sense is used, but apparently ESPN’s FPI factors that in.
Walder goes on to mention the defense could regress and there’s worry about Nix’s ankle after he had two offseason surgeries. That certainly feels more valid than how folks are betting on the Broncos.
Regardless, the Bills, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers, Patriots, Texans and Jaguars all have better chances to make the postseason than Denver according to this metric.
The good news is the games are played on the field and outcomes aren’t decided by analytics. Let the disrespect continue, as it might fuel the Broncos to get over the hump and win a title this season.
To see the full FPI rankings, click here.