SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz Mailbag! This week, we look at the likelihood that AJ Dybantsa is still on the board with the second pick.
Each week, we will send out a prompt on X and BlueSky asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.
Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s Jazz mailbag in the Jazz Notes podcast.
Question: Do you get the feeling that sentiment has shifted towards Darryn Peterson likely going number one now vs AJ Dybantsa? Is that a sign that his medical issues appear to be mostly resolved?
Answer: I do not expect Darryn Peterson to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. However, I believe here’s a clear explanation for why the narrative has started to shift in that direction, particularly in Utah.
The first explanation is draft fatigue.
Immediately after teams learned the lottery results, almost every mock draft placed AJ Dybantsa at No. 1.
That projection followed a consistent trend throughout the college basketball season, when analysts widely viewed Dybantsa as the likely top pick regardless of which team won the selection.
Our latest NBA Mock Draft!! pic.twitter.com/7JGKoFAlQr
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) June 7, 2026
The BYU forward delivered an outstanding freshman season in Provo. He led the country in scoring and showcased elite physical tools. Few players in basketball history possess Dybantsa’s combination of size, athleticism, and scoring instincts, and those who do often develop into upper-echelon NBA stars.
However, the lottery took place four weeks ago, and seeing the same name atop mock drafts has begun to feel repetitive.
As a result, fans and media members have started searching for new storylines in the name of variety rather than logic.
Simply put, the time between the lottery and the draft exceeds our attention spans, so our minds begin to wander.
In reality, very little has changed since the lottery results were announced, so expectations at the top of the draft should not change either.
Since the end of the college basketball season, neither Dybantsa nor Peterson has played a competitive game. Both participated in physical testing at the draft combine, which largely confirmed what evaluators already knew.
AJ Dybantsa’s closest physical comp in the DX database: a 20-year old Paul George. Same height in shoes (6’10), similar weight (215), nearly identical wingspan and standing reach. pic.twitter.com/8dKY0sdzH3
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) May 12, 2026
Dybantsa remains an elite athlete with superior measurables, while Peterson is a good athlete but less of a physical outlier.
The interview process can uncover unknowns, but neither player carries notable red flags in his personality, again, leaving little room for change.
Medical reports could influence draft order, but they typically hurt a player’s stock more than help it.
In Peterson’s case, he dealt with unexplained cramping during his freshman season. There does not appear to be a definitive diagnosis, which could cut both ways as evaluators assess his outlook.
Last week, I spoke with Jazz president of basketball operations Austin Ainge about the role of medical reports in the draft process. He offered this perspective, though we were not discussing Peterson specifically.
“I don’t know how often you guys have dealt with medical issues,” Ainge said. “There’s a lot of things that you can’t explain. There’s a lot of things that people don’t know.”
Even with full medical evaluations, results are not always black and white.
Applied to Peterson, there may be no diagnosis that guarantees the cramping will not return, but also no underlying condition that explains why it happened, or that it’s destined to come back.
Regardless, health alone was not the reason Dybantsa was projected ahead of Peterson, and nothing since the end of the college season should alter that outlook.
Novelty bias
The second reason some fans believe Peterson is gaining momentum relates to reciprocal liking—the tendency to like someone who appears to like you.
To be clear, Peterson has not said anything publicly about favoring Utah, but fans have grown accustomed to seeing him mocked to the Jazz at No. 2.
As a result, they have taken a closer look at his game and discovered why evaluators praised him throughout his prep and college career.
The Kansas guard projects as an elite shooter who can score in bunches and contribute positively on the defensive end.
Darryn Peterson — Smooth scoring process pic.twitter.com/PcreVMioIk
— .Slip (@SlipReaper) June 4, 2026
Those traits are not new to observers who have followed the 2026 draft class for years, but they may feel new to some Jazz fans.
Dybantsa was a well-known commodity after playing his senior year of high school at Utah Prep and then starring at BYU. Peterson, by contrast, has arrived locally as more of an unknown.
Once fans recognized his strengths, they began to covet the player and assume that teams drafting ahead of Utah would undergo that same experience.
Fans in Memphis have followed a similar pattern, worrying now that the Jazz or Washington Wizards could select Cameron Boozer, who is widely projected at No. 3. Fans in Chicago may feel the same way about Caleb Wilson.
Cam Boozer will be awesome. In 2 weeks I’m hoping we get to hear that he will wear a Grizzlies jersey
— Abbas Bokhari (@AbbasBokhari17) June 9, 2026
Once a fan base grows comfortable with a specific hypothetical outcome, any disruption to that expectation feels like a threat.
Players follow similar patterns. It is not uncommon for a player to shut down workouts after receiving a draft guarantee, even if teams with higher picks and larger salary slots remain interested.
Some Jazz fans may have become so convinced Peterson is the likely choice at No. 2 that any alternative outcome feels less appealing.
History favors size
Beyond my armchair draft psychology, history shows that teams often favor bigger players at the top of the lottery.
In the past 10 drafts, a forward or center has gone No. 1 overall six times.
In two of the four drafts when a guard was picked first, teams still selected the taller guard of two options, with Ben Simmons taken over Brandon Ingram in 2016 and Cade Cunningham selected over Jalen Green in 2021.
Darryn Peterson’s closest physical comp in the DX database: 21-year old Dwyane Wade coming out of Marquette.
Little taller, comparable frame, near-identical length and reach. Peterson has time to add bulk at 19. pic.twitter.com/xO6nB8LeMD
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) May 12, 2026
While Peterson will have fans in the Wizards front office, players with Dybantsa’s physical profile have traditionally been prioritized on draft night.
Ultimately, despite the shifting conversation since the lottery, I expect Dybantsa to be the No. 1 pick on June 23, leaving the Jazz to choose among Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, and Caleb Wilson.