One of our annual Pittsburgh Steelers offseason exercises returns. We’re deconstructing the roster and assessing the odds each player on it makes the team. Training camp and preseason will shape plenty, but this is a fair starting point for each name.
Like last year, we’ll take the list and pieces and work from the bottom up. That begins with the Steelers who have the longest odds to make the team. A couple of up-front caveats.
– This predicts the odds of landing on the Week One 53-man roster right ahead of the opener against the Atlanta Falcons. This does not include practice-squad odds, which would be higher for most players.
– Every player has some chance, and it’s the reason why I won’t give anyone 0 percent.
– This does not consider injuries or the odds of a player being traded, two things that are difficult to predict. Especially the former. The odds take into account player ability, place on the depth chart, salary, and the odds of the team adding external help instead.
– Those with identical odds will be listed in alphabetical order by last name.
Here are the long shots on the roster with a 10 percent chance or lower of making it.
STEELERS’ ROSTER LONG SHOTS (10% Or Lower CHANCE TO MAKE 53-MAN ROSTER)
CB D’Shawn Jamsion: 10%
CB Donte Kent: 10%
DL Logan Lee: 10%
TE Lake McRee: 10%
LS Cal Adomitis: 5%
EDGE Jamin Davis: 5%
TE JJ Galbreath: 5%
WR Max Hurleman: 5%
P Aidan Laros: 5%
OG Doug Nester: 5%
RB Lew Nichols: 5%
WR A.T. Perry: 5%
CB Devan Boykin: 2%
WR Cole Burgess: 2%
S Jack Henderson: 2%
EDGE KJ Henry: 2%
WR Brandon Smith: 2%
OG/C Aiden Williams: 2%
OG/OT Steven Jones: 2%
CB Tamon Lynum: 2%
DB Doneiko Slaughter: 2%
EDGE Julius Welschof: 2%
DL Kyler Baugh: 1%
ILB Daylan Carnell: 1%
C Greg Crippen: 1%
DL Anthony Goodlow: 1%
OG/OT Lorenzo Thompson: 1%
K Laith Marjan: 1%
– On some level, this year feels a little more wide open at the bottom with a clean slate and a new coaching staff that could shake up roster format and scheme/player preference. Digging into the numbers, there are 28 players on 2026’s list compared to 29 last year. This time, only six players have a one-percent chance. Last year, only nine did.
– While these are all long odds, last year proved some could make it. Long shots who made up our 2025 list included WR Scotty Miller, DL Esezi Otomewo, and QB Skylar Thompson. All made the 53, though Will Howard’s injury opened the door for Thompson.
– The top of Pittsburgh’s cornerback depth chart seems settled, but there’s a chance for someone to pick up a sixth spot. That could go to Jamison, a speedster with special teams value, and Kent, last year’s seventh-round pick. Both are likely to play in the slot this summer.
– Lee has beaten odds before, but his path gets tougher each year. Pittsburgh’s added plenty of new defensive line faces and brought back Dean Lowry, likely squeezing Lee off the roster.
– McRee is battling for an open third tight end spot, but with veteran competition in Jaheim Bell and Robert Tonyan, his odds have taken hits since signing as an undrafted free agent. Still, there is some receiving ability that made him draftable until two torn ACLs impacted his stock.
– The 5 percenters come in different forms. Adomitis has hung around since mid-last year, but Christian Kuntz is still a heavy favorite. Davis has a pedigree, but is buried at outside linebacker. Injury ahead of him is his real path. Galbreath and Hurleman shined early last year but faded by summer’s end. Still, there’s athleticism and work ethic that could serve both well in their second seasons.
Perry once made a mark as a rookie but has struggled to stick since. Laros is the newest addition and has a big leg, but Cameron Johnston will be difficult to top.
– The rest of the list really needs plenty to break well ahead of them. Some have intriguing talent, Lynum, Henderson, and Boykin come to mind, but they’re all buried on the depth chart. Injuries elsewhere could lead to any of these names being cut during training camp as part of the normal roster shuffle. Welschof still has an international exemption, while Baugh plays with a hot motor and picked up a sack last preseason. Williams and Jones are position-flexible. That’ll help their causes.
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