Mike Tomlin is no longer in charge of the Pittsburgh Steelers after stepping down due to emotional reasons at the end of the 2025 season, and first-year head coach Mike McCarthy steps in carrying both promise and pressure. The front office, led by GM Omar Khan, wasted no time locking in Nick Herbig on a four-year, $100 million extension on June 2, including $42 million guaranteed to signal where this roster is heading.
This lucrative extension makes Herbig the first non-quarterback to cross the $100 million threshold without starting a full NFL season in his career. Now, what looked like a straightforward roster win is beginning to raise longer-term questions about the future of this defense’s identity as the team prepares for life after T.J. Watt.
James Harrison predicts Steelers cut T.J. Watt after Nick Herbig extension
Herbig, 24, was entering the final year of his rookie contract coming off a career-high 7.5-sack season in 2025. He had been Pittsburgh’s most productive pass rusher per snap, posting the highest pass-rush win rate in the NFL last season at 26.3%, per ESPN Analytics, while adding an interception, three forced fumbles and 18 quarterback hits.
Meanwhile, T.J. Watt, the team’s all-time sack leader, is getting older, and his massive contract is becoming a burden. Watt turns 32 this year. He is coming off a rough 2025 season where he recorded only seven sacks, a steep drop after hitting double-digits in six of his previous seven years.
Jan 12, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt (90) warms up for an AFC Wild Card Round game against the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images
Former Steelers linebacker Harrison recently pointed out that this decline in production, combined with Watt’s high salary cap number, is a growing problem for the team.
On a recent episode of the “Deebo & Joe” podcast, Harrison said, “Trading Highsmith is not going to happen because they just paid Herbig,” Harrison said. “I feel like it’s gonna be a transition over the next couple of years where we keep that group, and like I said, after that second year, when T.J.’s guarantee is done, I think he jumps to $40-something million that last year, and he’s going to be 34, 35 — I think they release him.”
Watt’s three-year, $123 million contract extension carries a $42 million annual cap hit. Cutting him in 2026 creates a massive $94 million dead cap penalty. That penalty drops to $52 million in 2027, and falls to just $10 million in 2028 when his remaining money is no longer guaranteed. That 2028 drop is the exit window Harrison sees for Pittsburgh.
With Herbig’s $25 million average now on the books, the Steelers are spending $83 million annually on their top three edge rushers. This is the second-highest total at the position in the NFL, trailing only Houston’s spending on Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
Dedicating that much cap space to one position group long-term is impossible to sustain. If Watt’s production plateaus, the team cannot justify his high cost. Harrison’s prediction is the logical result of an already tight budget. The Steelers are all-in on their pass rushers today, but they will have to sacrifice this expensive group soon.
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