Fernando Mendoza and the Las Vegas Raiders enter the 2026 season facing long odds in their pursuit of a playoff berth, but the franchise remains hopeful that progress is beginning to take shape. While projections suggest the team remains outside the NFL’s upper tier, the presence of a promising young quarterback has given fans reason to believe brighter days could be ahead.
The challenge for Las Vegas begins with the environment in which it competes. The AFC continues to be stacked with championship contenders, while the AFC West remains one of football’s most demanding divisions. Every week presents difficult matchups, and teams seeking a postseason spot must consistently outperform expectations. Analysts evaluating playoff probabilities have generally placed the Raiders among the teams facing an uphill climb, reflecting both the strength of the conference and the questions still surrounding the roster.
May 2, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) runs through a drill during a Rookie Minicamp at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images
Mendoza has emerged as one of the most intriguing storylines entering the season. The young quarterback represents hope for a franchise searching for long-term stability at the position. While expectations remain measured, his development will likely play a major role in determining how competitive the Raiders can become. Young quarterbacks often experience growing pains, but organizations are willing to endure those challenges if they believe they have found a future cornerstone.
Las Vegas also faces concerns beyond the quarterback position. The roster continues to undergo changes as the organization works to establish a stronger foundation capable of competing with the conference’s elite teams. Improvements on both sides of the ball will be necessary if the Raiders hope to close the gap between themselves and the division’s top contenders. Depth, consistency and execution will all be critical factors throughout the season.
NFL Analysis Predicts Playoff Odds of Fernando Mendoza and Las Vegas Raiders Next Season
Apr 21, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza prepares to throw the ceremonial first pitch before a game between the Miami Marlins and the St. Louis Cardinals at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images
Las Vegas is projected to miss the playoffs ahead of the 2026 NFL season. This is detailed more in an analysis by Aaron Schatz for ESPN.
Odds of winning division: 1.5% (fourth in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 6% (28th in NFL)
If the Raiders get a great rookie season from him, it’s not ridiculous to think they could have a top defense to go with it. The Raiders ranked 14th in defensive DVOA in 2025 and 18th the season before. They still have Maxx Crosby and made several free agent additions on that side of the ball. Again, probably not, but maybe.
One obstacle frequently cited by observers is the demanding schedule awaiting the Raiders. A difficult slate of opponents leaves little room for extended struggles, particularly for a team attempting to develop younger players while remaining competitive. Success will likely require Las Vegas to win games in which it may not be favored and capitalize on opportunities whenever they arise. Those challenges help explain why playoff projections remain cautious.
Despite the modest expectations, the Raiders are not approaching the season without optimism. The organization believes Mendoza and several other emerging players can accelerate the rebuilding process and help establish a stronger identity moving forward. While postseason odds may not currently favor Las Vegas, the franchise views 2026 as an opportunity to demonstrate meaningful progress. If Mendoza develops faster than anticipated, the Raiders could take an important step toward becoming a future playoff contender.