Continuing our Pittsburgh Steelers deconstructed 2026 roster series. Today, we’re looking at players squarely on the roster bubble. It’s always a shorter list of names compared to others, but it has some of the most interesting players and battles on the roster.
As we outlined in previous editions of the series, these odds are only to make the Week 1 53-man roster and not the practice squad. It also doesn’t take into consideration the chances of someone getting injured. It only looks at player talent, depth chart, scheme, and the odds that the team will add outside help.
As always, let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
Part One – The Long Shots
Part Two – Outside The Bubble
STEELERS SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE (41%-55% CHANCE OF MAKING 53-MAN ROSTER)
RB Kaleb Johnson: 55%
S Robert Spears-Jennings: 55%
TE Robert Tonyan: 55%
RB/WR Eli Heidenreich: 50% (true coin flip)
DL Gabriel Rubio: 49%
S Sebastian Castro: 45%
DL Esezi Otomewo: 45%
There’s always plenty of debate for the bubble guys. Johnson is a third-round pick from 2025, but a new coaching staff puts him off scholarship. It also creates a clean slate that helps wipe away a miserable rookie season, but he has much to prove. Johnson must show value beyond running the ball, and a lack of special teams value is a serious concern. Still, he could show a second-year jump and cement his case in the summer.
Spears-Jennings is battling Sebastian Castro and Darnell Savage for a final safety spot. Giving Spears-Jennings, this year’s 7th round pick, the slight edge for his speed and physicality.
Tonyan is among the newest Steelers. His size, experience, knowledge of Mike McCarthy’s offense, friendship with Aaron Rodgers, and lack of tight-end depth beyond the top two put him slightly above 50 percent.
Heidenreich is a true coin flip. And I know you’re going straight to the comments section to tell me why it should be higher. Putting him at 50 percent as a 7th round pick, the 10th selection of the rookie class, with lots of competition. He needs to adjust to an NFL system that’ll be quite different than what he thrived in at Navy. Kaden Wetjen and Germie Bernard are ahead of him in the “offensive chess piece” category.
Could he make it? Of course. These odds are good for his spot. But it’s far from a sure thing.
Rubio and Otomewo will be part of a fierce defensive line battle. Otomewo flashed last year, but Rubio’s size and run defense give him the slight edge. He’ll need to stay healthy all camp, but injury chances aren’t factored into these numbers.
Recommended for you