Manchester United have statistically the easiest start to the 2026-27 Premier League season, whereas Manchester City and Chelsea have come off worse.
Now that the calendar has been set in stone, we’ve ranked every team in the Premier League by the difficulty of their first six matches, based on every club’s 2025-26 finishing position.
Newly-promoted sides Coventry, Ipswich and Hull have been deemed to have finished 18th, 19th and 20th respectively last season.
This isn’t an exact science. Chelsea, Newcastle and Tottenham all underperformed last season and would be viewed as trickier fixtures than, to pick two examples, Sunderland or Brentford.
And it wouldn’t be the Premier League without some shocks; the early fixtures are often a good time to bet on the outsiders.
But United will certainly fancy their chances of a good start to their season as they face Hull and Ipswich in their opening two matches.
Liverpool, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Everton have all emerged relatively unscathed from the Premier League supercomputer, with a good chance of starting the campaign strongly.
Manchester City and Chelsea, both under new management, have not fared so well. The Blues have a kind run on paper, but Brentford, Brighton and Bournemouth all finished above them last year.
Meanwhile, City will face early trips to Old Trafford and Anfield as they start the post-Guardiola era.
Champions Arsenal are middle of the road, with early fixtures against Villa and Chelsea cushioned by some home bankers.
Sunderland, who overachieved to finish 7th last season, have a run of tricky fixtures at the start of a campaign that features European football for the first time since 1973. Is their squad deep enough?
We’ve crunched the numbers to see which team has the easiest and hardest run to start the 2026-27 season, listed in reverse order:
20. Manchester United
First six fixtures: Hull (A), Ipswich (H), Everton (A), Man City (H), Fulham (A), Tottenham (H)
Average difficulty: 13.6
19. Newcastle
First six fixtures: Liverpool (H), Tottenham (A), Bournemouth (H), Leeds (A), Hull (H), Coventry (A)
Average difficulty: 13.3
18. Everton
First six fixtures: Crystal Palace (H), Bournemouth (A), Man Utd (H), Tottenham (A), Ipswich (H), Hull (A)
Average difficulty: 13.3
17. Crystal Palace
First six fixtures: Everton (A), Hull (H), Fulham (A), Ipswich (H), Leeds (A), Nottingham Forest (H)
Average difficulty: 12.5
16. Nottingham Forest
First six fixtures: Leeds (H), Liverpool (A), Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A), Coventry (H), Crystal Palace (A)
Average difficulty: 12.1
15. Aston Villa
First six fixtures: Brighton (A), Arsenal (H), Hull (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Tottenham (A), Brentford (H)
Average difficulty: 11.8
14. Liverpool
First six fixtures: Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Ipswich (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Manchester City (H)
Average difficulty: 10.8
13. Arsenal
First six fixtures: Coventry (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (A), Leeds (H)
Average difficulty: 10.1
12. Leeds United
First six fixtures: Nottingham Forest (A), Brentford (H), Brighton (A), Newcastle (H), Crystal Palace (H), Arsenal (A)
Average difficulty: 10.1
11. Hull City
First six fixtures: Man Utd (H), Coventry (A), Aston Villa (H), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (A), Everton (H)
Average difficulty: 10
10. Fulham
First six fixtures: Chelsea (H), Sunderland (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A), Man Utd (H), Ipswich (A)
Average difficulty: 9.83
9. Coventry
First six fixtures: Arsenal (A), Hull (H), Man City (A), Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Newcastle (H)
Average difficulty: 9.83
8. Brentford
First six fixtures: Tottenham (H), Leeds (A), Sunderland (H), Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Aston Villa (A)
Average difficulty: 9.6
7. Tottenham
First six fixtures: Brentford (A), Newcastle (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Everton (H), Aston Villa (H), Man Utd (A)
Average difficulty: 9.5
6. Chelsea
First six fixtures: Fulham (A), Brighton (H), Arsenal (A), Hull (H), Brentford (A), Bournemouth (H)
Average difficulty: 9.1
5. Manchester City
First six fixtures: Bournemouth (H), Crystal Palace (A), Coventry (H), Man Utd (A), Sunderland (H), Liverpool (A)
Average difficulty: 9
4. Brighton
First six fixtures: Aston Villa (H), Chelsea (A), Leeds (H), Coventry (A), Arsenal (H), Sunderland (A)
Average difficulty: 9
3. Ipswich
First six fixtures: Sunderland (H), Man Utd (A), Liverpool (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (A), Fulham (H)
Average difficulty: 9
2. Bournemouth
First six fixtures: Man City (A), Everton (H), Newcastle (A), Brentford (H), Liverpool (H), Chelsea (A)
Average difficulty: 8.5
1. Sunderland
First six fixtures: Ipswich (A), Fulham (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Man City (A), Brighton (H)
Average difficulty: 8.3
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