For Alexander Isak 12 months ago, read Bruno Guimaraes now. Presented with a straight choice between holding onto Isak or selling him at a point where they could secure a viable replacement for a realistic fee, Newcastle officials did neither last summer, waiting until the last possible moment before admitting defeat and sanctioning Isak’s sale to Liverpool. The subsequent scramble that led to the signing of Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa for a combined sum of more than £120m is widely acknowledged to have been a disaster.
So, the Magpies cannot make the same mistake again. But that does not make their next move any easier. Should they accept defeat now, negotiate the best possible terms with Arsenal and devote as much time as possible to building a new-look squad for next season? Or should they draw a line in the sand and inform Guimaraes and his representatives that he will not be leaving no matter what offer is tabled this summer? It is a genuinely difficult call.
There is definitely an argument that if you are ever going to sell Guimaraes, now is the time to do it. The Brazilian turns 29 in November, not cripplingly old in terms of being a Premier League midfielder, but definitely at a point where clubs might potentially think twice about committing anywhere in the region of £60-80m to his purchase.
Guimaraes has two years remaining on his current deal, with Newcastle holding an option to extend that by another 12 months. They are in a strong contractual position, but it is hard to imagine how their captain’s value is going to rise at any stage from this point on. If, as CEO David Hopkinson keeps insisting, Newcastle have to become “better sellers”, the best deal they are ever going to get for Guimaraes is almost certainly staring them right in the face.
Then, of course, there is Guimaraes’ mental state. Once Isak went on strike to force through a move to Anfield, it was obvious there was no way back for the Swede. Eddie Howe was trying to pretend otherwise, but you can’t reintegrate a player who has behaved in that manner.
Guimaraes is not there yet. He’s only just exited the World Cup with Brazil, so isn’t due back at Newcastle for the best part of a month. Tyneside sources insist there has been no direct contact between Guimaraes and any senior Newcastle official, so suggestions that the midfielder has ‘told Newcastle he wants to leave’ are incorrect.
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That said, though, there is rarely smoke without fire, so the noises emanating from Guimaraes’ camp this week are ominous. If they’re briefing that their client wants to move on, the horse might well have bolted, with a number of South American journalists claiming Guimaraes has been openly talking of his need to leave Tyneside throughout Brazil’s World Cup campaign. If it gets to a point where Guimaraes is publicly talking of wanting to leave Newcastle, or submitting a transfer request or refusing to return to pre-season training to try to force the club’s hand, things are surely past the point of no return.
What if that doesn’t happen though? If the current stand-off continues, should Newcastle hold firm and keep their captain? They certainly won’t be doing business at the £45m price tag that Arsenal were reportedly discussing when they first made informal contact via intermediaries. But even if the Gunners returned with £65m, £75m or even more, should Newcastle still say no?
It can definitely be argued that after selling Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali this summer, they cannot afford to lose another of their star assets. The heart would be completely ripped out of the team, with any notion of being ‘in the conversation to be the biggest club in the world by 2030’ – an ambition repeated by Hopkinson as recently as the start of this year – surely in tatters.
There is also an argument that Newcastle cannot afford to lose what Guimaraes gives them as both a player and captain either. Prior to beating Manchester United in March, Newcastle had not won any of the 12 league games they had played without Guimaraes since he joined the club in January 2022. If he leaves, how on earth do the Magpies replace both him and Tonali in the same window? And what about the leadership qualities that Guimaraes brings to a group that will almost certainly be much younger and less experienced than was the case last season come the end of the transfer window? Guimaraes is the heartbeat of Howe’s squad, the talisman who has taken Newcastle to his heart since joining from Lyon. Lose that, and you lose much of the glue that has held things together during some difficult times in the last four seasons.
At some stage, Newcastle are going to have to stop selling their leading assets if they are to become true title contenders and a genuine European force again. And yet as they have learned to their cost ever since the Saudi Arabian PIF completed their takeover, that is much easier said than done in an era when financial regulations have made it all-but-impossible for upwardly-mobile clubs to gatecrash the elite.
Tonali has reportedly tripled his wages by moving to Tottenham. Even if Newcastle wanted to, they couldn’t offer Guimaraes anything like that sort of money to tie him to a new deal without massively impacting their ability to spend in the future or once again run the risk of incurring Premier League points penalties or a hefty UEFA fine.
It is a delicate balancing act, and the situation surrounding Guimaraes is once again bringing it to a head. Should he stay or should he go? At the moment, that still hangs in the balance, with pros and cons no matter what Newcastle decide is their best course of action.