It is safe to say that Arsenal are a secure team in possession. Many mis-characterise Arsenal’s defensive solidity as a matter of shape. Pundits who, frankly, for the money they earn and the ease of the job they do (and I am well positioned to say football analysis is a very cushy job!) should have a better handle on why Arteta’s team don’t give many chances away.
It is not because their shape is conservative- Champions League Final aside. It is not. Saliba and Gabriel are usually pushed right up inside the opponent’s half. David Raya spends the majority of the game so far out of his goal that he becomes a de facto deep lying playmaker. However, where Arsenal are conservative is in possession.
They were eighth in the Premier League for progressive passes played last season (according to 1vs1), which is unusual for a league champion. Manchester City were first, Liverpool second and Manchester United third. Now, Arsenal comfortably finished above all those teams so it should not automatically be read that progressive passes = good and a lack of them = bad.
Part of the reason that Arsenal won the league is that their risk reward dial was better than the competition. Sometimes making a progressive pass is a bad choice if it leads to a loss of possession. However, all that said, eighth in the league for progressive passes and 71 goals scored (the fourth lowest for a league champion since the Premier League’s inception in 1992-93) shows that Arsenal can stand to be bolder in the final third when they have the ball.
In 2023-24 Arsenal were 2nd for progressive passes and in 2024-25 they were 3rd. Sky Sports’ Sam Blitz [posted a graphic recently](https://x.com/SamBIitz/status/2072274705130647744?s=20) showing the data for ‘most passes that break opposition back line’. There was no current Arsenal player in the top 10 for that metric last season. However, two names that do pop up are Bruno Guimaraes and Morgan Rogers, who appear to be the Gunners’ principal transfer targets this summer.
Clearly, improving open play creation is a key area for Arteta this summer. Bruno was 9th in the Premier League last season for progressive passes if you omit defenders from the data. The Premier League website has Bruno as the joint 4th most frequent attempter of through balls last season with Adam Wharton. Morgan Rogers is in joint 5th alongside Martin Odegaard. The latter has begun to feel like a single point of failure when it comes to Arsenal’s creative game in open play.
When it comes to interest in Bruno, it is not difficult to ‘see the vision.’ Especially in the absence of Mikel Merino, Arsenal became too reliant on Rice and Zubimendi. The latter succumbed to fatigue while the former played for half a season with his hamstrings reduced to hamthreads. Given that he is still running his legs off for England at the World Cup at the moment, contingency simply must be built.
Bruno would essentially take Christian Norgaard’s place in the squad (if not his role) and that is a significant upgrade in midfield software. Too often in the spring, Arsenal’s passing became a little too side to side. I think a lot of this was due to injury. In a season where any one of Saka, Odegaard or Havertz are healthier, I think those progressive passing numbers jump considerably.
If the midfield passing did have a tendency to drift into horseshoe territory it was probably a reflection of a front four that lacked chemistry without some of its most kinetic players. But even putting that to one side, Bruno is simply a more penetrative passer than any other midfielder Arsenal have bar Odegaard.
Rogers is not as influential on the ball, which you would probably expect given that he plays slightly further forwards. However, his through ball numbers are healthy and so are his shot numbers. He was joint eighth with Matheus Cunha for total shots attempted in the Premier League last season.
Rogers can be wasteful at times and I imagine, if he were to join, that Arteta would try to strike the balance between honing his instincts without bleaching that enterprising streak out of him. But the TL;DR factors here are that Arsenal’s two biggest transfer targets- regardless of whether the deals happen- show you what Arteta is trying to amend ahead of next season.
He is trying to sign a midfielder who feeds the ball into dangerous positions regularly and a wide / central attacker who shoots a lot and tries through balls. Dialling up the chaos factor was a principal of last summer too, Gyokeres, Eze and Madueke is not a collection of players you buy if you are obsessed with moderation and slow side-to-wide passing. However, overall creativity, in the proper technical sense, could and should be boosted for next season.
At the moment, it feels like Arsenal’s open play creative game is heavily contingent on Odegaard and Saka and we have had to learn what it is like to be without one or both too often over the last two seasons. I think targeting Rogers and Bruno is about raising the technical floor as well as the technical ceiling.
As ever with Arteta, when you spot a crease in the Arsenal team, you can bet good money it will have kept him awake many a night and he will spend the summer pursuing sledgehammers to break that walnut. I anticipate the pursuit of Rogers and Bruno will be drawn out affairs when it comes to negotiation. But you can see exactly why Arteta is targeting both players and the issues he is looking to address.