I remember draft weekend in 2023 like it was yesterday. Absolutely, there was a ton of giddiness over getting Will Anderson and C.J. Stroud back to back. However, the draft also featured Tank Dell. However, one of the later picks I was most excited about was Xavier Hutchinson. Why? The answer is actually pretty simple. There are two things that people know about me if they read these features enough. Number one, I am more or less the numbers guy around these parts. Number two, I don’t watch a ton of college football.
I often joke around draft time when my colleagues geek out over specific prospects. Sure, I know many of the players in the college football playoff and the Heisman race, but I am not up on offensive line prospects or players from mid majors. What I knew about Xavier Hutchinson was that he was highly productive. How did I know that? The numbers tell me so.
He caught more than 100 balls in his senior year as the number one wide receiver at Iowa State. No, I did not expect a Pro Bowl wide receiver in the sixth round. As a Big 12 guy I know how pass happy the league is and I know those numbers were likely inflated. Still, if you ask me to pick between a productive guy and a guy that some people say “shows potential”, I will pick the productive guy every time.
Hutchinson has had moments in his three seasons. In the grand scheme of things, he has more than justified his draft posiion simply by sticking in the organization all three years. Furthermore, he has gotten measurably better in each of his three seasons. He went from 8, to 12, to 35 receptions in three seasons. Maybe even more importantly, His catch percentages and success rates have also gone up in each of those three seasons.
So, unlike Blake Fisher, this is not a case of a guy not working hard, not improving, or just being lost. He is legitimately getting better and showed himself to be a good fourth wide receiver in the offense. This is purely about numbers. At this point, it would appear that Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins have two of the three starting roles sewn up. No one can ever assume anything as far as Tank Dell is concerned, but if he is even close to what he was before the knee injuries then he is the third guy. Then, you have Jaylen Noel as a guy that could emerge as that fourth guy if he takes another step forward.
If all of those things happen then Hutchinson becomes your fifth wide receiver. The Texans also drafted Lewis Bond in the sixth round of the past draft. He had similar numbers for Boston College. There are a host of other undrafted free agent types. Jared Wayne is the most significant of those and Justin Watson is still under contract for some reason.
We should immediately start breaking down what we are talking about. When you start looking at 53 man roster crunches it becomes a lot more than who is the fifth best wide receiver. Teams have other considerations like special teams and other speciality packages that might feature a guy with particular skills. Hutchinson does not return kicks. He does not have blazing speed, so he is not that kind of speciality wide receiver. Others on the roster like Dell and Noel have shown some return ability in the past. Hutchinson could catch on as a special teams performer, but he doesn’t have the reputation as a guy you simply have to have in that role.
We also have to consider the contract situations for all of these guys. Noel is going into his second season. He is likely to get more rope. Hutchinson will be in the last year of his rookie deal, so he could be easier to cut or trade at the end of camp. Obviously, there are a lot of what ifs here. The worst scenario for Hutchinson is that both Dell and Noel show out while Hutchinson plateaus. One of the undrafted free agents or Bond could also potentially look very good.
The best scenario is for him to settle in as the first wide receiver off the bench as he did last season. Every team goes through injuries, so having a guy that can get 30 to 40 catches is huge in a long 17 game season and playoff run. There is no reason to root against a guy like Hutchinson, but there are other guys to root for too, It will be interesting to see how this competition ends up playing out.