The Steelers didn’t plan for a coaching change, but one would expect Mike McCarthy to make changes on offense. After all, it’s what earned him a head coaching job, especially in managing the quarterback position. While not formally the offensive coordinator, he will retain play-calling duties. And Ray Fittipaldo sees that role influencing one significant component of the Steelers’ offense.
Specifically, we’re talking about first-down play calling. According to Pro Football Reference, the Steelers ran 444 first-down plays on offense last season. They attempted 224 runs, including 13 from the quarterback position. Quarterbacks attempted 197 passes, taking 11 sacks, with a total of 217 plays listed as passes. Factoring in scrambles and kneeldowns, they had a fairly close run-to-pass ratio on first down. Will it favor the pass more under McCarthy?
“Yes I think you could see that happen”, Fittipaldo said in a recent chat about the Steelers offense throwing more on first down. “The past few seasons with Matt Canada and Arthur Smith as OCs you saw a lot of running on early downs and that led to a lot of third-and-longs if they weren’t running the ball well. If you get 5-7 yards on a first-down pass, it’s a lot easier to run on second and third downs”.
The Steelers averaged 4.6 yards per carry on first down last season on offense, so they actually did okay. They averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempt, as well. Aaron Rodgers went 117-for-179 for 1,143 yards, though, averaging 6.4 himself. And he took 10 sacks, so that’s 72 plays right there where the Steelers set themselves up with 2nd and 10 or worse.
In Arthur Smith’s first season with the Steelers, the offense greatly favored a run-first approach. On 487 first-down plays, they ran 289 times compared to 186 pass attempts. Yet they averaged just 3.83 yards per rush, again averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
How will McCarthy’s time in Dallas influence how the Steelers run or throw on first down on offense? Over his time there, his run-pass ratio was actually pretty even. From 2020 through 2024, they ran 2,649 first-down plays, of which 1,294 were passes and 1,277 were runs. Of course, they also missed starting QB Dak Prescott fairly often, affecting the run-pass ratio.
Isolating his final season, the Cowboys did throw significantly more, even without a healthy Dak Prescott for much of the year. On 523 plays, they threw 269 times compared to 232 runs. In the games Prescott played, they had a 135-to-102 run-ass ratio. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
The last time Mike McCarthy had Dak Prescott for a full season, they had a 257-to-256 pass-to-run ratio on first down in Dallas. What does that say about what he’ll do with the Steelers’ offense and Aaron Rodgers? Now, they did have a 155-to-116 pass-to-run ratio in the first halves of games, suggesting that they leaned into running the ball in the second half with the lead in a year in which they went 12-5.
We could look at ancient figures from their time together in Green Bay, but that’s such a long time ago. Rodgers isn’t the same player, and McCarthy isn’t the same coach. But maybe we don’t know McCarthy as well as we think?
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