Beginning life after Bill Belichick in 2024, the Patriots stumbled through their second straight 4-13 season under rookie head coach Jerod Mayo. Although Mayo put together a successful career as a Patriots linebacker from 2008-15, owner Robert Kraft did not give him a second year on the sidelines. Kraft canned Mayo in January 2025 and replaced him with Mike Vrabel, another of the team’s ex-linebackers.
Unlike Mayo, Vrabel had already proven himself as a head coach when he took the Patriots’ job. While in charge of the Titans from 2018-23, Vrabel posted a respectable 54-45 regular-season record and went to the playoffs three times. Between the upgrade from Mayo to Vrabel and optimism surrounding second-year quarterback Drake Maye, expectations were the Patriots would show legitimate progress last season.
Not only did the Patriots improve in Year 1 under Vrabel, but they engineered one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in NFL history. After storming to a 14-3 mark in the regular season and snapping the Bills’ five-year streak of AFC East titles, the Patriots knocked off the Chargers, Texans and Broncos in the playoffs to earn a berth in Super Bowl LX. That ended up as a night to forget for New England, which fell 29-13 to Seattle, but its season was a resounding success overall. Vrabel won Coach of the Year, while Maye finished second to Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford in the MVP race.
The Patriots were clearly among the league’s elite last season, yet there is skepticism they will stay in the same company this year. Detractors will point to their 2025 slate of opponents as an obvious argument for negative regression. The Patriots, who won just two regular-season games against playoff teams (the Panthers and Bills), faced the easiest schedule since the 1999 Rams. They played teams with a combined .391 winning percentage. It appears it will be far more difficult in 2026 for the Pats, who will tackle the sixth-hardest schedule based on their opponents’ winning percentage from last year (.531).
Going up against what should be a tougher group of opponents, will Maye continue his MVP-level play? He was unquestionably in that class last year. The 2024 third overall pick from North Carolina ranked first in the league in completion percentage (72%), passer rating (113.5), QBR (77.1) and yards per attempt (8.9). Maye also scored 35 touchdowns (31 passing, four rushing) against just eight interceptions and ran for the fourth-most yards among QBs (450).
Maye did not turn in anything close to an MVP-caliber playoff performance, though inclement weather hurt his cause in wins against the Texans and Broncos. Over four games, Maye connected on 58.3% of passes, tossed six TDs and four INTs, and registered an 82.2 rating with a 40.0 QBR. The Patriots got through the AFC bracket largely because of a defense that allowed a measly 19 points in three games. They gave up just seven in their AFC title game win in snowy Denver, which had to turn to backup signal-caller Jarrett Stidham in place of an injured Bo Nix. Things came crashing down against Seattle, whose swarming defense bullied the Patriots’ O-line (mainly banged-up rookie left tackle Will Campbell). The Seahawks hit Maye 11 times, sacked him six times, and intercepted him twice in a lopsided affair.
Between the regular season and the playoffs, Maye took 68 sacks in 2025. Part of that had to do with a late-season knee injury to Campbell, last year’s fourth overall pick. He went on IR with a sprained MCL ahead of Week 13, and though he came back in time for the postseason, playing with a torn ligament hampered his performance. The Patriots are sticking with a healthy Campbell at left tackle in 2026. Morgan Moses (right tackle) and Michael Onwenu (right guard) also remain in the fold as first-teamers. This will probably be Moses’ last year as a starter in New England, which has first-round rookie Caleb Lomu waiting in the wings. If all goes to according to plan, Campbell and Lomu will be the club’s long-term bookends.
Elsewhere up front, the Patriots will have different starters along the interior. Jared Wilson was the Pats’ No. 1 left guard as a third-round rookie in 2025, but he is taking over at center (his position at Georgia) for Garrett Bradbury, whom the Patriots traded to the Bears. Former Jet Alijah Vera-Tucker will man left guard if he stays healthy, which has not been a given during his five-year career. While his talent has never been in question, injuries limited Vera-Tucker to 43 of 85 games in New York. AVT missed all of last season with a torn triceps, but it didn’t stop the Patriots from taking a three-year, $42MM gamble on him in free agency.
The Patriots’ O-line changes are noteworthy, but they pale in comparison to the offseason action that took place in their receiving corps. Stefon Diggs led the resurgent franchise in targets, catches and yards in 2025, the first season of a three-year, $69MM deal. Little did he know it would be the only season he would play in New England.
In a move that freed up over $16MM in cap space, the Patriots released the 32-year-old Diggs in March. It helped pave the way for two new starter additions at wideout, as the Patriots signed former Packer Romeo Doubs to a four-year, $68MM pact and then acquired star A.J. Brown from the Eagles for a 2028 first-rounder and a 2027 fifth-rounder. The Brown trade, which reunited him with Vrabel from their days in Tennessee, seemed inevitable throughout the offseason. As expected, the teams waited to make the deal until June 1 for financial reasons.
As effective as Diggs was in 2025, nobody would argue he is better than Brown at this stage of their respective careers. In a recent survey from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, various executives, coaches and scouts ranked Brown as the game’s ninth-best receiver (Diggs did not make the top 10 or check in among the other 16 wideouts who received votes).
Brown and Doubs are at the front of a talented group of pass catchers that also includes Kayshon Boutte (though he is a rumored trade candidate), Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams. The Patriots also boast a dependable No. 1 tight end, Hunter Henry, and a quality running back duo in Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Even if the Patriots subtract Boutte, DeMario Douglas or Efton Chism from their receiving corps, Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels should have more than enough weapons.
The Patriots’ offense ranked a stellar second in scoring and third in yards last season. The club was similarly successful on the other side of the ball, as its defense allowed the fourth-fewest points and the eighth-fewest yards in the league. The Patriots accomplished that with inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr filling in at defensive coordinator for Terrell Williams, who battled cancer in 2025. Fortunately, Williams is now cancer-free, but he now has a different position in the organization. With the team reassigning Williams, Kuhr is now the full-time D-coordinator.
Kuhr will work with a cast similar to the one he had last year, though the Patriots picked up new starting safety Kevin Byard in free agency. As a member of the Bears in 2025, Byard led the league in interceptions (seven) en route to his third first-team All-Pro nod and his third Pro Bowl selection. The soon-to-be 33-year-old Byard’s age limited his earning power in free agency (one year, $9MM), but the Patriots expect him to serve as an upgrade over now-Raven Jaylinn Hawkins.
Byard, fellow safety Craig Woodson, shutdown No. 1 cornerback Christian Gonzalez, starting corner Carlton Davis and nickel CB Marcus Jones will be a burden to deal with for opposing offenses. Turning to the defensive front, linemen Milton Williams and Christian Barmore and inside linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss should continue to comprise a formidable group. The Patriots lost nose tackle Khyiris Tonga to the Chiefs in free agency, but Cory Durden looks like a capable replacement after holding his own over almost 400 defensive snaps last season.
The biggest question on New England’s defense is along the edge. Despite finishing 19th in pass rush win rate and tying for 26th in sacks last year, the Patriots did little (if anything) to upgrade. They swapped out K’Lavon Chaisson for Dre’Mont Jones in free agency and then spent the 55th overall pick on former Illinois pass rusher Gabe Jacas, one of six rookies who still has not signed a contract. Jacas, who underwent knee surgery at some point, did not participate at rookie minicamp or report to mandatory minicamp. Whether he will sign in time for training camp or make any kind of impact as a rookie is up in the air.
If Jacas contributes little to nothing, it would put further onus on Jones and Harold Landry to lead what may be a second straight unspectacular pass rush. Like Jacas, Landry isn’t the picture of health. While Landry had a team-best 8.5 sacks in 15 games last year, he battled knee problems throughout the campaign. Those issues have dragged on for Landry, who did not participate in minicamp. We’ll see how active the 30-year-old is when the Patriots begin training camp practice later this month.
Despite concerns over a tougher schedule and a questionable pass rush, New England continues to look like a well-coached team with plenty of talent. While matching or improving on 14 wins may be too much to ask, the Patriots currently have the third-best odds to win the AFC (behind the Ravens and Bills) and the fifth-highest odds to win Super Bowl LXI.
Will the reigning AFC champs remain among the game’s premier teams in 2026? Vote in PFR’s latest poll.