As the dust settles on the 2026 NBA Free Agency, one thing is clear: big money brings big risks. Teams handed out some big contracts this summer, chasing stars and filling rosters in a league where the salary cap keeps rising. But not every deal feels like a smart long-term move. Some feel more like bets that could backfire if injuries hit, production drops, or the player just doesn’t fit the system.
This summer saw some headline-grabbing signings. Austin Reaves locked in a historic four-year, $180 million max with the Lakers after his strong play. Trae Young got a big four-year, $212 million extension with the Wizards.
That’s why we’re diving into the 10 riskiest contracts from this offseason. These aren’t necessarily the worst contracts in the league. Many of these guys are talented and have proven themselves. The problem comes when the dollars don’t match the reality on the floor.
Free agency always brings hope, but the real test comes during the long season. Stick with us as we count down the 10 riskiest ones. Some might surprise you, and others will make total sense once you see the details. Let’s get into it.
10. John Collins
Contract: 3 years, $51.0 million
Efficiency remained one of John Collins’ biggest strengths last season. He recorded 13.6 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 55.2% from the field and 40.6% from three, giving Detroit a frontcourt player who can finish above the rim and stretch the floor.
Finding the correct role could be more complicated. The Pistons already need minutes for Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland II, while Collins still isn’t a high-level defender or someone who creates offense consistently with the ball.
A salary of $17.0 million is manageable under the current cap, but three guaranteed years create real downside. If the three-point shooting falls back or Collins becomes a playoff bench player, Detroit could struggle to move the contract without attaching another asset.
9. Neemias Queta
Contract: 4 years, $56.0 million
One breakout season was enough for the Celtics to make a serious investment. Neemias Queta reached 10.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.3 blocks after finishing the previous year with only 5.0 points and 3.8 rebounds.
Boston is betting that the improvement can hold across a larger role and tougher playoff matchups. Queta still has limited offensive range, and centers who depend on finishing, rebounding and rim protection can lose value quickly if their defense isn’t elite.
Four guaranteed seasons create most of the risk, especially after the Celtics also signed Mitchell Robinson. More than $100.0 million is now committed to two centers who could compete for the same minutes, so Queta needs to prove last season wasn’t just one good run.
8. Ayo Dosunmu
Contract: 5 years, $112.0 million
Versatility made Ayo Dosunmu an important part of the Timberwolves’ rotation. He produced 14.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 43.9% from three, defending multiple guard positions, and playing without needing a huge usage rate.
That skill set is valuable, but five years is an enormous commitment for someone who isn’t a primary scorer or lead playmaker. Minnesota will pay him $22.4 million per season, which creates expectations far above those of a normal complementary guard.
The shooting percentage is the biggest swing factor. Dosunmu has been more inconsistent from three across his career, so a drop closer to league average would make the contract look much less comfortable, especially if LaMelo Ball reduces his touches.
7. Sandro Mamukelashvili
Contract: 4 years, $52.0 million
A career-best season completely changed Sandro Mamukelashvili’s market. The versatile big man posted 11.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists while shooting 52.3% from the field and 38.9% from three across 80 appearances.
His passing, mobility and shooting make sense around Luka Doncic, especially against defenses that pack the paint. The Lakers can use him as a pick-and-pop option, short-roll passer or secondary creator against slower frontcourts.
The problem is that Mamukelashvili had never cleared 6.3 points per game before last season. Four years and $52.0 million is a large bet on one season of consistent rotation production, and his defense still needs to hold up against serious playoff offenses.
6. Robert Williams III
Contract: 3 years, $44.0 million
Whenever he is available, Robert Williams III still produces like an excellent defensive center. He finished with 6.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks in only 17.1 minutes while shooting 70.8% from the field.
Portland can use him behind Donovan Clingan without asking for huge minutes, which should help preserve his body. His rim protection, passing, and vertical finishing also give the Trail Blazers a different style whenever Clingan rests.
Availability is still impossible to ignore. Williams’ 59 games were the second-highest total of his eight-year career, so paying almost $15.0 million annually to a backup center with repeated knee problems carries clear downside.
5. Mitchell Robinson
Contract: 3 years, $47.4 million
Elite offensive rebounding continues to make Mitchell Robinson valuable even without shooting or post creation. He contributed 5.7 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 19.6 minutes, then helped the Knicks win the championship through defense and extra possessions.
The Celtics are betting that his physical style can translate into another strong playoff run. Robinson gives Boston more size around the rim, but his 40.8% free-throw shooting and lack of offensive range can become serious problems late in games.
Health makes the contract much riskier than the annual salary suggests. Robinson has struggled to remain available across multiple seasons, and Boston already paid Queta to occupy the same position, creating a costly center rotation with several limitations.
4. Austin Reaves
Contract: 4 years, $180.0 million
A major scoring jump made Austin Reaves one of the biggest names available. He reached 23.3 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.7 rebounds across 51 games, proving he could handle a much larger offensive role next to Doncic.
The contract changes how every performance will be evaluated. Reaves isn’t an underpaid third option anymore, because $45.0 million per season requires consistent star-level scoring, creation and playoff production rather than another good complementary season.
Defensive fit creates another concern. A Doncic-Reaves backcourt can be targeted by elite guards, while calf and oblique problems already limited Reaves last season. The offensive upside is obvious, but the salary leaves almost no room for decline.
3. Walker Kessler
Contract: 4 years, $130.0 million
The basketball fit next to Doncic is easy to understand. Walker Kessler can protect the rim, dominate the glass, and finish lobs without needing touches, giving the Lakers the defensive center they have lacked for several seasons.
Last year produced only five appearances because of a torn left shoulder labrum. Kessler recorded 14.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in that tiny sample after posting 11.1 points, 12.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks during the previous campaign.
Los Angeles committed $32.5 million annually and also surrendered two unprotected first-round picks plus two swaps to acquire him. That is an enormous investment in a center coming off major surgery who still provides limited shooting and self-creation.
2. Gary Trent Jr.
Contract: 4 years, $64.0 million
Nothing about Gary Trent Jr.’s last season normally leads to this type of payday. He finished with only 8.1 points, 1.0 rebounds, and 1.2 assists in 21.2 minutes, shooting 38.7% from the field and 36.0% from three while losing part of his role in Milwaukee.
The Bucks are now paying $16.0 million annually for a guard who doesn’t create much offense, rebound, or provide the same defensive impact he showed earlier in his career. Trent can still hit movement threes, but one shooting skill isn’t enough to justify four guaranteed years after the weakest full season of his career.
Oh, and the NBA is investigating the contract on top of everything else. Trent jumped from earning $3.7 million to $16.0 million per season without doing anything on the court to justify that increase, so the league is examining whether Milwaukee and Trent had an illegal prior agreement. The investigation isn’t proof of wrongdoing, but the entire situation is obviously super weird, making this the riskiest contract of 2026 free agency.
1. Trae Young
Contract: 4 years, $212.0 million
Giving a maximum-level contract to a player after only 15 appearances is an enormous gamble. Trae Young missed most of last season with a right MCL sprain and finished with 17.9 points, 8.0 assists and 2.0 rebounds, shooting 45.8% from the field and 33.8% from three. That was easily his lowest scoring average since his rookie season.
Washington will now pay around $53.0 million annually to a small guard who remains one of the NBA’s weakest defenders. Young can still carry an offense and create easy shots for everyone around him, but the Wizards finished 17-65 and haven’t shown they are close enough to contention for this type of financial commitment to make complete sense.
The final-year player option and reported 7.5% trade kicker add even more downside. If Young returns to his All-Star level, Washington will have an elite playmaker entering his prime. If the injuries continue or the roster doesn’t improve, the Wizards could be stuck paying more than $50.0 million per season to a defensively limited point guard who becomes extremely difficult to trade.