We already covered the most optimistic view of the upcoming Ravens season.
With training camp on the horizon, and Baltimore again among the favorites to win it all, there is certainly a Super Bowl case to be made. But, as bullish as I am on Jesse Minter fixing this defense and the franchise making positive steps out of the abyss of 2025, the Lombardi Trophy feels quite ambitious to me in what amounts to a start-up.
History would indicate that going from John Harbaugh – for all his faults an established coach with a strong staff (outside of the defensive side) – to a rookie head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator, probably won’t result in being the final team standing 11 months later. Of course, it doesn’t have to be and these moves were made with long-term goals in mind.
But when you stack up this program against some of the others than are relying on proven, elite coaches at the top along with continuity and arguably better and deeper rosters, I tend to think the Ravens will much more likely be among the 30 teams watching the Super Bowl than the two playing in it. But they’ll have a shot and I expect them to be in the playoffs, which, again, would mark progress.
Why don’t I anticipate them being in that final game? It boils down to these four elements for me:
The Coaching Staff Is Too Young
Only twice in NFL history has a rookie head coach won a Super Bowl and both had quite unique extenuating circumstances.
Right here in Baltimore Don McCafferty took over Don Shula’s historically significant Colts team and won Super Bowl V. Obviously, a very different era in the NFL, and that was a franchise and roster with recent proven championship mettle and McCafferty had already been on the staff for 10 straight years. And George Seifert took over Bill Walsh’s 49ers mid-dynasty after being a longtime coordinator there and already pushing age 50 at the time of the transition.
That ain’t Minter coming in to replace a guy with a Lombardi on his resume from another organization for a team that consistently undermines itself in the postseason. Not even close.
There is no precedent for a move like this resulting in an immediate Lombardi. And this is also a rare staff (Miami is the only other in the NFL for the 2026 season) without a single former NFL head coach on it anywhere. That’s a lot of history to buck at the onset.
Not Enough Playmakers On Offense
Lamar Jackson is more than good enough to carry a team far. But come the postseason, against the best defenses and best pass rushers and best defensive coordinators week after week, talent wins. And outside of Zay Flowers there aren’t proven, in-form, in-prime options to catch the football anywhere.
And Flowers himself has physical limitations that stunt his ability to shift games in the redzone and in the endzone. And as noted above the offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle, hasn’t ever done this job before and has never even called a play.
Of course, the roster could be addressed between now and the midseason trade deadline. And the defense will be great. But we are talking about winning a Super Bowl here.
Fourth-Quarter Culture
This team has become synonymous with blowing leads and especially blowing double-digit late leads. Merely firing Harbaugh doesn’t cure that.
Something is amiss in the culture here and it dates back across multiple offensive coordinators and defensive coordinators. Finally ponying up for Trey Hendrickson should definitely help put games away, but he is older and had an injury history.
I just don’t know that this switch gets flicked easily, because this stuff was still going on too often even with the great Mike Macdonald running the defense and it setting records before he left for Seattle. Scheme alone ain’t gonna make this go away. You have to be a dominant team in the final 15 minutes to go that deep in the playoffs and I suspect it takes some time to shed their skin in this regard and chart a new path.
The defense gets a lot of the blame - and rightfully so - but this issue is sweeping and all three phases played a role and it's going to be complicated to alter their collective psyche and get better results.
The Roster Is Too Old
Peaking in the playoffs is quite difficult. Football is a young man’s game, recent drafts haven’t been good enough and when they have, a bevy of those quality players in their mid-20s just left the building during free agency.
The Ravens have their highest payroll ever, by far, but as we have examined it, much of that money is tied up in older players, or declining players, or players whose bodies are older than their age or all of the above. And they are manning absolutely pivotal positions without much depth.
So much will be asked of Hendrickson and Calais Campbell (40) on the defensive line and Roquan Smith (rapid decline the last two seasons) wearing the green dot. Marlon Humphrey has slowed and injuries are a concern for him in the secondary and we are still awaiting clarity on what Nnamdi Madubuike’s neck surgery will allow him to do this season.
On offense the left tackle (Ronnie Stanley) thought his career was over from multiple surgeries years ago and the running back (Derrick Henry) is 32, where NFL careers have almost all died at that position. The only proven move tight end on the roster (Mark Andrews) averaged under 9 yards per reception yet still got paid again and seems older than his age and has never caught a playoff touchdown. The just-signed center (Ethan Pocic) is a decade into his career and coming off a Week 14 Achilles tear.
Feels like a lot and it's too much for me to project the Ravens to be the last team standing.
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