Along with the heat, the summer brings the return of fantasy football. Depending on how dedicated, diehard and/or degenerate you and your league are, the draft might be just a few weeks away. So, it's time to start studying.
My colleague Dan Parr has provided his tiered rankings of each position, and one useful application of those pecking orders is marrying them with draft expectations to find value. Specifically, whose ranking substantially outstrips his average draft position -- known as ADP in the industry -- and could set you up for success in 2026?
I'm here to bring you seven of my favorite answers to that question -- from the very top of drafts to the bottom -- at each position, starting with quarterback.
Average draft position (ADP) data comes via ESPN.
This article series follows a point per reception (PPR) scoring format.
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Cam Ward
Tennessee Titans
Average draft position: Undrafted
I’ve got some numbers for you ... The last 10 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall averaged 14.39 fantasy points per game in Year 1, with Ward posting the third-lowest figure (10.98 FPPG) on that list. When looking at the nine other QBs, the average jumped to 17.73 points per game in Year 2. The three others who averaged fewer than 12 points in Year 1 -- Bryce Young" data-link="/players/bryce-young/" data-slug="bryce-young">Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence" data-link="/players/trevor-lawrence/" data-slug="trevor-lawrence">Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff" data-link="/players/jared-goff/" data-slug="jared-goff">Jared Goff -- improved by an average of 6.42 points in Year 2. One common reason for the jump in a signal-caller's sophomore campaign? Improvement to the supporting cast. And I couldn't be more enthused by the Titans' roster reconstruction, having recently given them an A+ offseason grade. Tennessee significantly boosted the passing attack, adding fourth overall pick Carnell Tate" data-link="/players/carnell-tate/" data-slug="carnell-tate">Carnell Tate and reliable slot receiver Wan'Dale Robinson" data-link="/players/wan-dale-robinson/" data-slug="wan-dale-robinson">Wan'Dale Robinson. Ward flashed plenty of talent as a rookie, averaging 15.29 points per game over his last month of action with two touchdown passes in four straight contests. So, history suggests the Titans quarterback is poised to take a substantial leap in 2026, and he has the potential to emulate what Caleb Williams" data-link="/players/caleb-williams/" data-slug="caleb-williams">Caleb Williams did last season -- finishing as the QB5 in fantasy in Year 2. At an incredibly cheap ADP of QB25 -- essentially out of one-QB leagues and a value even in two-QB leagues -- Ward is a free shot at a surprise season.
Tyler Shough
New Orleans Saints
Average draft position: Rounds 13-14
Shough’s first couple games as a rookie were nothing to write home about, as he scored just 4.32 points in his Week 8 takeover and 9.24 in his first start the following week. Settling into the job in Week 10, though, Shough averaged 18.05 fantasy points per game down the stretch, eighth among quarterbacks in that span (better than Caleb Williams" data-link="/players/caleb-williams/" data-slug="caleb-williams">Caleb Williams, Patrick Mahomes" data-link="/players/patrick-mahomes/" data-slug="patrick-mahomes">Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts" data-link="/players/jalen-hurts/" data-slug="jalen-hurts">Jalen Hurts, among others). Since then, the Saints signed productive dual-threat running back Travis Etienne" data-link="/players/travis-etienne/" data-slug="travis-etienne">Travis Etienne to complement Alvin Kamara" data-link="/players/alvin-kamara/" data-slug="alvin-kamara">Alvin Kamara and drafted Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson" data-link="/players/jordyn-tyson/" data-slug="jordyn-tyson">Jordyn Tyson, arguably the best wideout in the class when healthy, to pair with Chris Olave" data-link="/players/chris-olave/" data-slug="chris-olave">Chris Olave. Rounding out the pass-catching group with tight end Juwan Johnson" data-link="/players/juwan-johnson/" data-slug="juwan-johnson">Juwan Johnson, who caught 77 passes for 889 yards last year for the Saints, gives Shough a fine supporting cast. Though I'm not yet fully convinced the second-year pro will be the franchise quarterback for New Orleans for the next decade, the arrow is pointing up for Shough, as he does have underrated upside in 2026. Sitting at QB19 in ADP, he's sort of the compromise option between Jared Goff" data-link="/players/jared-goff/" data-slug="jared-goff">Jared Goff' floor and Kyler Murray" data-link="/players/kyler-murray/" data-slug="kyler-murray">Kyler Murray's ceiling.
Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers
Average draft position: Round 11
Herbert has been better than you might think from a fantasy standpoint, quietly scoring the third-most fantasy points among quarterbacks since 2020. In fantasy points per game, he was the QB10 in 2023, QB13 in '24 and QB11 in '25. Not game-breaking, but consistently solid. Plus, when considering his 2026 ADP of QB15 -- in the double-digit rounds of most fantasy leagues -- that track record already positions him as a value.
But wait, there’s more! Herbert suffered through a travesty of offensive line play last year with Joe Alt" data-link="/players/joe-alt/" data-slug="joe-alt">Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater" data-link="/players/rashawn-slater/" data-slug="rashawn-slater">Rashawn Slater injured and the entire depth chart rotating constantly. Per NFL Pro, the Chargers’ 42.5 percent pressure rate and 60 sacks allowed were both second-worst in the league, and Herbert’s numbers suffered as a result. With the healthy return of both tackles, the addition of Tyler Biadasz" data-link="/players/tyler-biadasz/" data-slug="tyler-biadasz">Tyler Biadasz at center and the arrival of OC Mike McDaniel, Herbert could be poised for his most efficient season in years. There’s certainly no reason to believe he’ll be any worse than the QB11 slot my colleague Dan Parr ranked Herbert in his recent hierarchy. We know Herbert has a truly elite ceiling, judging by what we saw in his first several NFL campaigns, and it could be fully unlocked with a refreshed Los Angeles roster this fall.
Jared Goff
Detroit Lions
Average draft position: Round 13
Look, I get it: Goff isn’t the most electric player in fantasy. Maybe it’s his lack of mobility, top-tier upside or aura. But the disrespect is getting silly. Here are Goff’s last four fantasy finishes: QB10, QB7, QB6 and QB9. Magnificent consistency, zero games missed, 4,400-plus passing yards every season. Since 2022, the list of quarterbacks with more passing yards or touchdowns than Goff is nonexistent. He tops the league in both categories.
No, Goff isn’t going to finish the 2026 season as the overall QB1. He probably won't ever finish there. But if you wait until the later stretches of your draft to snag a quarterback, Goff's the safest pick by far. He's almost guaranteed to outperform several of the names drafted ahead of him -- think Patrick Mahomes, Jaxson Dart" data-link="/players/jaxson-dart/" data-slug="jaxson-dart">Jaxson Dart or Trevor Lawrence. Also, with the departure of David Montgomery" data-link="/players/david-montgomery/" data-slug="david-montgomery">David Montgomery and questions around the Lions defense, it’s possible Goff has to throw more often in 2026, which would boost his fantasy ceiling. Either way, he’s a locked-and-loaded, low-end QB1 who can be drafted at a middling-QB2 value.
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills
Average draft position: Rounds 2-3
Wait, what? The first quarterback off fantasy draft boards is a value?! How is that possible? Hear me out. Allen has finished as the QB1 or QB2 overall in six straight seasons. That’s unprecedented. Absurd, even. Since 2020, he’s scored 328 more total fantasy points than the next-best QB (Patrick Mahomes) and 529 more points than the guy in third (Justin Herbert). In each of the last three seasons, Allen has outscored the highest-drafted fantasy QB not named Josh Allen by 5-to-6 fantasy points per game. He even maintained that top-tier upside after Stefon Diggs" data-link="/players/stefon-diggs/" data-slug="stefon-diggs">Stefon Diggs' departure and a significant decrease in passing volume over the last two seasons in Buffalo.
For fantasy, Allen is truly in a league (or tier) of his own.
This offseason, the Bills added DJ Moore" data-link="/players/d-j-moore/" data-slug="d-j-moore">DJ Moore, who has excelled in Joe Brady’s offense in the past and offers Allen a legitimate No. 1 option once again. Allen is the best guarantee at any position in fantasy and offers a rare positional advantage with a sky-high floor. He’s projected to go at Pick No. 24 in overall ADP, so if you land a top spot in the fantasy draft, there's an opportunity to pair Jahmyr Gibbs" data-link="/players/jahmyr-gibbs/" data-slug="jahmyr-gibbs">Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson" data-link="/players/bijan-robinson/" data-slug="bijan-robinson">Bijan Robinson with Allen at the end of the second round. And if you're able to do that ... Good night. League over. Ship the trophy.
Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys
Average draft position: Round 9
Death. Taxes. Yours truly highlighting Prescott as undervalued in fantasy drafts. It happens every single year, and every single year where the Cowboys QB stays healthy, drafting him pays off. In his four full seasons since his fantasy breakout in 2019, Prescott has finished as the QB2, QB7, QB3 and QB6. Over the past seven seasons in total, his 19.4 fantasy points per game ranks fifth at the position, behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson" data-link="/players/lamar-jackson/" data-slug="lamar-jackson">Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Jayden Daniels" data-link="/players/jayden-daniels/" data-slug="jayden-daniels">Jayden Daniels. And yet, in 2026, he’s sporting an ADP of QB9.
Prescott arguably has the league’s best WR duo in CeeDee Lamb" data-link="/players/ceedee-lamb/" data-slug="ceedee-lamb">CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens" data-link="/players/george-pickens/" data-slug="george-pickens">George Pickens, along with underrated pass catchers in both RB Javonte Williams" data-link="/players/javonte-williams/" data-slug="javonte-williams">Javonte Williams and TE Jake Ferguson" data-link="/players/jake-ferguson/" data-slug="jake-ferguson">Jake Ferguson. There might not be a quarterback more reliably locked in for 4,500 yards and at least 30 touchdowns, and you can draft him in the eighth or ninth round, after filling out the rest of your starting roster. Don’t let a scattered history of fluky injuries sway your outlook on one of fantasy’s most productive quarterbacks. He’s an excellent value with a high floor and a high ceiling.
Kyler Murray
Minnesota Vikings
Average draft position: Rounds 13-14
In a way, Murray is the yin to Jared Goff’s yang: Goff is unexciting, with a capped ceiling but an extremely safe floor; Murray is a lightning rod with QB1 overall upside, though his floor is literally the Minnesota bench. That’s right: The best QB value in this exercise has yet to be named the starter -- which explains his current ADP of QB18. I fully expect Murray to be Minnesota's QB1 and enter the season healthy, with Kevin O’Connell at the helm and Justin Jefferson" data-link="/players/justin-jefferson/" data-slug="justin-jefferson">Justin Jefferson at his disposal. It’s the best situation the former Cardinal will find himself in since DeAndre Hopkins" data-link="/players/deandre-hopkins/" data-slug="deandre-hopkins">DeAndre Hopkins' heyday in Arizona, when Kyler was a fantasy star.
The last two times O’Connell and the Vikings had a healthy quarterback for an entire season, Kirk Cousins" data-link="/players/kirk-cousins/" data-slug="kirk-cousins">Kirk Cousins finished as the QB8 (in 2022) and Sam Darnold" data-link="/players/sam-darnold/" data-slug="sam-darnold">Sam Darnold finished as the QB9 (in 2024). With elite rushing capability that neither of those quarterbacks possesses, a healthy Murray would finish at least that high, and probably several spots higher. He’s one of two or three current quarterbacks who could legitimately eclipse 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in a season. That’s a cheat code in fantasy. If you prefer the “shoot for the moon” approach with a late-round QB, Murray should be the target.