Indianapolis Colts receiver Josh Downs is getting noticed this offseason. His name has popped up on more than one list of potential breakout players for 2026. And with good reason. Downs has been a reliable slot option for the Colts in his first three seasons, catching between 58 and 72 passes and gaining between 566 and 803 yards in each.
The fact that 2025 resulted in the fewest targets, catches, and yards of his career is offset by a few factors looking forward. First and foremost, Michael Pittman, Jr., the Colts' most-targeted receiver during Downs’ tenure, is no longer with the club, and he has not been replaced by anyone nearly as productive. More chances for big plays should naturally accrue to Downs as a result.
The fact that this is the final year of his rookie deal also figures into some calculations. There is a common perception that some players perform their best when a contract is on the line. Whether that applies to Josh Downs is debatable. But it doesn't figure to be a negative for him in 2026.
Where must Indianapolis Colts receiver Josh Downs improve in 2026?
We may not know exactly how Downs’ role will change this season, but one thing seems obvious in studying his stats. Downs needs to improve his performance in one (or, depending on how you look at it, two) crucial receiving categories. If he fails to do so, he may still have a decent season, but it will not be the breakout some are predicting.
Given his diminutive size, it was more or less a given that Josh Downs was going to play in the slot as a pro. As such, he has performed pretty well. As we have noted, despite a slight downturn in his overall numbers last season, Downs was Daniel Jones' go-to target when the QB was under pressure.
I wouldn’t be overly concerned about the drop in targets, catches, and yards last year. Tyler Warren took up a lot of space in Indy’s offense, and I agree that with Pittman gone, there will be more opportunities for Downs, Warren, and Alec Pierce this season.
But Josh Downs has to improve on his yards-per-target number if he is ever going to transcend his status as a “pretty good” pass-catching option.
Yards-per-target is a better gauge of a receiver’s effectiveness than the traditional yards-per-catch because it measures efficiency as well as big-play potential. Alec Pierce has dominated the league in the latter category in each of the last two seasons. But his second-place finish in the former – to New England’s Kayshon Boutte by one-tenth of a yard – is an even more impressive stat.
Pierce ran a lot of deep patterns last year, and his catch rate was correspondingly lower than that of receivers who run shorter, safer routes. Still, on a per-target basis, he was excellent.
As a slot receiver, Downs is bound to have a higher catch rate than Pierce, but he will not gain nearly as many yards. Even so, good slot receivers manage to post per-target numbers of around eight yards.
In order to test this theory, I asked AI to identify the best slot receivers in the NFL. It came up with eight names. Downs was one of them. The other included players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Cooper Kupp. Leaving Downs out for a moment, the highest per-target number belonged to Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb at 9.2. The lowest was Tampa’s Chris Godwin at 7.1.
The mean yards-per-target for these elite slot receivers was exactly 8.0. That’s without including Green Bay’s Jayden Reed, who was injured for much of 2025. Had I used his limited 2025 numbers, the average would have gone up. Had I used his 2024 numbers, when he recorded an outstanding 11.4 yards-per-target, the average would have gone up yet again.
But 8.0 seems reasonable to me, so let’s settle for that.
Josh Downs’ yards-per-target in 2025 were 6.4. That just isn’t good enough if Downs is to be considered among the league’s best.
As a rookie, he was right at that 8.0 mark, but he regressed in his second season and then took a major step backwards last year. Why has this happened? It is not because he is catching fewer targets. If he were, that might explain the drop. Downs' catch rate has indeed dropped over his three seasons, but the drop has been minimal.
Given that, there are only two other explanations for such a precipitous decline. Either he is running shorter patterns, or he is gaining fewer yards after the catch. It turns out the latter is the culprit. Downs’ yards-after-catch dropped to a measly 2.5 in 2025. It had been 5.5 in each of his first two seasons.
Coming out of college, yards-after-catch were one of Josh Downs’ best selling points. He was a beast with the ball in his hands. Last year, reserve tight ends Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory, who caught a total of five balls between them, were the only Colts pass catchers less effective after the catch than Downs.
Has he simply lost his agility or speed? It doesn’t appear that way to the naked eye. Do Alex Tanney’s game plans somehow constrict him? It is hard to judge that from the outside.
But whatever the reason, keep an eye on these two crucial numbers as Downs begins his fourth season – yards-per-target and yards-after-catch. They will go a long way toward determining whether Josh Downs really becomes a breakout star in 2026 or remains a decent slot option and nothing more.
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